Hello everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here’s the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version for the main (early) should be ready by around 10:00am central time.
My top pitchers today
Max Scherzer – Mad Max faces his old team today and I expect him to put on a show. He’s a top option in all formats and offers one of, if not the, highest floors and ceilings on the day. Look for him to have a VKSCORE north of 1000 with the final carnage run, as well as a double digit strikeout count before it’s all over.
Joey Lucchesi – If you’re playing one of the later slates, be sure to play Lucchesi. Remember when I was droning on about the Cardinals struggling against new (to them) pitchers? Well, that all applies here again. With the exception of Goldschmidt (who is a great one-off), nobody on this team has faced him before. I expect to see a similar performance to what Paddack had last night.
Gerrit Cole – There aren’t many pitchers who can measure up to Scherzer’s ceiling today, but Cole is one of them. They’re pretty close, though I would have to give the edge to Scherzer here, but in the event he has a rough outing at his old home, Cole might just be next in line to claim one of the higher scores on the slate.
Offenses to target
I won’t list the individual targets here, as I’ll get to them later in the article. For now, let’s just take a quick look at a few offenses to keep an eye on:
Cleveland Indians – The Indians dropped another dud last night, which will probably drop their ownership that much more today. They’re in another spot to go off here today (7.75 carnage rating against Ynoa), so don’t be afraid to go right back to them in case they have that big game we’ve been expecting.
Miami Marlins – Arrieta has really started to slip a bit, so look to the Marlins to do some damage here. They get a 8.27 carnage rating, which is the best on slate, so feel free to go here in all formats.
Kansas City Royals – My Royals get a good matchup against Sanchez and his 7.46 carnage rating, and they sure do love these day games. I’d probably lean GPP here, but they’ll have a good chance to put up a lot of runs in a hurry, and they rarely carry a whole lot of ownership.
Houston Astros – Like the Indians, they were in a great spot yesterday but didn’t really quite do the damage we were hoping they would, so people may shy away from them today. You don’t have to be one of those people though, as their matchup against Gonzales and his 6.73 carnage rating is a great place to attack.
Los Angeles Dodgers / Colorado Rockies – This one looks like it’ll be yet another slug fest, and you don’t need me to tell you to stack them. If you want to eat some of the Coors chalk, by all means go for it. If you want to gamble and pivot elsewhere, you can do that too.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Oh boy. So, both of these teams basically had their entire bullpen in the game at some point yesterday, which means we might have some tired arms, which might lead to position players pitching. MLB would love nothing more than to see another game that explodes on the offensive side, so if you’re playing a slate with this game on it, focus on the bats.
This game opened with a 15.5 implied total. Yeah…
Yankees 5 star plays – Sanchez (BvP)
Yankees 4 star plays – Torres (BvP), Judge, LeMahieu, Encarnacion
GPP note – Feel free to go overboard here
Red Sox 5 star plays – Martinez, Betts
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Chavis, Bradley Jr
GPP note – Feel free to go overboard here, too. They get the better pitching matchup to start the game with,
Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
The Indians keep laying duds in good spots, and people get tired of that. Look for them to have a little less ownership today, which is excellent considering they’re in a spot with a good chance to put up 10+ runs. The Orioles will have to face Bieber, so keep those bats saved for contrarian GPP stacks.
Indians 5 star plays – Lindor
Indians 4 star plays – Kipnis (BvP), Santana, Mercado
GPP note – 6+ implied runs, a soft pitcher, and a great hitter’s ballpark for a team that may see reduced ownership after a few bad games. Sign me up!
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Smith Jr, Villar, Mancini
GPP note – They have a tougher matchup against Bieber so lean GPP here. Still, they’ve been hot, and will be quick to jump on any mistakes Bieber makes…should he make any
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays
I love my Royals here as a sneaky stack, as people don’t play them normally, and especially not when they don’t have an implied total that stands out. Toronto will be a little hit or miss, as it mostly depends on which version of Keller shows up. Those three sides of the game are in play, but I’m not feeling much love for Sanchez.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Gordon, Dozier, Soler, Lopez
GPP note – You can use them as a full stack or supplement a chalkier stack with some of these guys to help get a little different to the field
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Gurriel, Guerrero, Sogard, Biggio
GPP note – Their success kind of depends on which Keller shows up, but they’re definitely worth stacking in case he has another bad outing. Favor the lefties when possible, but don’t forget about Gurriel!
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Few pitchers can really implode like Lester can, and this is a dangerous ballpark for him to do that at. Vegas seems to think he might, as the Reds opened up with an implied total greater than 5. The same can be said for the Cubs, as they’ll have a good chance to do some damage here. Stacks of any kind of in play here.
Cubs 5 star plays – Rizzo (BvP)
Cubs 4 star plays – Bryant, BAez, Schwarber
GPP note – They have a high total too, so feel free to grab some pieces here, or consider a game stack since both teams are in good spots
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Suarez/Votto (BvP), Senzel, Puig, Gennett
GPP note – If you stack here, make sure to go hard with full stacks, since Lester tends to implode hard when he has a bad game
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
The Marlins are a great contrarian stack, as they started with an implied total of under 4 and they get the best carnage rating matchup on the board today (8.27 against Arrieta). The Phillies get a mostly average matchup against Richards, which doesn’t excite me too much since they tend to go off against weaker pitchers, not average or difficult ones. Some mini-stacks or one-offs would be fine.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Hoskins, Segura
GPP note – I don’t love full stacks here, so maybe just grab 1 or 2 bats and move on
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Granderson/Walker/Rojas (BvP)
GPP note – Great contrarian stack. Favor the lefties whenever possible
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers
Max Scherzer.
Other than that, there are a few Nationals bats worth a look. Zimmermann has been known to implode on occasion, so don’t be afraid to stack it up here. As for Detroit….pass.
Nationals 5 star plays – Rendon
Nationals 4 star plays – Turner, Adams (?), Soto
GPP note – If Adams starts, be sure to grab him. If not, look at Turner, Rendon, and the lefties here
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Unless you’re feeling really cute/brave/contrarian, look elsewhere
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
I don’t know what’s up with Snell, but he’s spiraling downward and people are tired of playing him. That gives me two options; stack against him with the idea that something is off with him that he hasn’t fixed yet, or roll him out since he’ll have low ownership (and hope he gets his stuff together ASAP). If you’re doing MME you can do both, so take advantage of the ol’ hedge maneuver.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Mazara, Gallo, Santana
GPP note – It’s not a bad idea to stack the Rangers in some lineups and hedge with Snell as a pitcher in some others. Everything will depend on which Snell shows up, so it’s not a bad idea to cover your bases.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Meadows, Choi, Pham
GPP note – They’re slumping and aren’t in a matchup to really explode here. If you want a low-owned stack, they’re in play, but I’m not sure they’re the best option
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Both of these teams have been difficult to get a reading on lately, but one thing we know is the Pirates get Davies with a 7.99 carnage rating, which is one of the best on the board. The Brewers have cooled off a bit, but they’ll strike back out of nowhere before too long, so don’t be afraid to keep riding the train until it gets hot again.
Pirates 5 star plays – Bell
Pirates 4 star plays – Marte, Reynolds, Moran, Newman
GPP note – Big stacks are in play here. Favor the lefties when you can but don’t neglect Newman/Marte
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Cain, Braun, Aguilar
GPP note – It’s only a matter of time before these guys have another huge game, and hopefully you’ll have some big stacks when they do
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
We get a new pitcher (Thorpe) and a solid pitcher (Giolito) here. It’s hard to want to attack Giolito, especially at home, but the Twins are one team I’d be comfortable stacking against him. It’s hard to say what we should expect out of the White Sox, but since there’s always a chance Thorpe will have some issues in his debut, I think having some stacks of both teams are in play.
Twins 5 star plays – none
4 Twins star plays – Rosario/Polanco (BvP), Kepler, Sano. Cruz
GPP note – If you stack here, be sure to go big with full stacks and hope that either Giolito has a bad game, or that the bullpen does
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Jimenez, Moncada, McCann
GPP note -They’re worth stacking too, mostly in case Thorpe has a bad outing in his 2019 debut
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
We get one of our other aces on the day here, as Cole and the Astros will take on Gonzales and the Mariners. Line the Indians, the Astros dropped the ball yesterday in a good matchup, so don’t be afraid to go right back to them here as they’re in another good spot but might have less ownership than yesterday.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Vogelbach
GPP note – I don’t love attacking Cole, but if you’re feeling like a contrarian, I suppose you could do worse….like stacking Detroit.
Astros 5 star plays – Springer, Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Gurriel
GPP note – Feel free to go right back to the well with these guys. They didn’t go bananas yesterday but they’ll have another good chance to today
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Oh look, chalk city! I don’t really need to say much here, do I? 13.5 implied total, two teams that have been putting up a ton of runs, and some newer pitcher named Chi Chi. I guess that’s it! Stack away!
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Verdugo, Pederson, Muncy
GPP note – Oh look, another right-handed pitcher for the LAD lefties to destroy. They’re really good at doing that, aren’t they?
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon (BvP)
Rockies 4 star plays – Arenado, Dahl, the rest of the lefties
GPP note -Lefties are the way to go here, too. Start with Blackmon then load up on the lefties
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
He’s not quite Mad Max, but Mad Bum has looked very sharp lately and Vegas likes him to keep the Diamondbacks in check here. I don’t think he has the ceiling to match the other top-end pitchers (to act as a pivot), but he’d make a great SP2 option.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Escobar, Jones, Walker
GPP note – Tough matchup against Bumgarner without much BvP to fall back on. I think I’d rather look elsewhere for production, but if you want to attack him, favor the four I noted above.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Longoria/Posey (BvP)
GPP note – Ray can be pretty tough too, so maybe just look at Longoria/Posey for their BvP and then move on
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
After laying a big ol’ zero on us last night, the Angels find themselves in another good spot to make up for it. They’ll get a righty this time, which will change the approach a little bit, but not by a whole lot.
Athletics 5 star plays –
Athletics 4 star plays –
GPP note –
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, La Stella, Calhoun
GPP note – Trout + lefties = good way to go for some stacks tonight
St Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
Like I mentioned earlier, I love Lucchesi here and I think he’ll compete with Paddack’s performance from last night. Mikolas gets a very average matchup with his 4.78 carnage rating, so I can’t really say I love his upside here.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmit (BvP)
GPP note – If you’re not playing Paddack, be sure to get some exposure to Goldschmidt as he’s the only one who has seen Lucchesi so far
Padres 5 star plays – Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Hosmer, Renfro
GPP note – They went off last night, so I do expect them to carry a little extra ownership. Eat the chalk or pivot somewhere else like LAA – the choice is yours.
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
And finally, our hammer game features two pitchers that are capable of shutting down an offense for a while, so be sure to play them on any slate you may find them on. I do give the edge to Syndergaard here, but not by a whole lot. Both of them have their work cut out for them today.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman (BvP), Acuna,
GPP note – Syndergaard likes to throw hard, and guys like Acuna enjoy that. Freeman has some decent BvP here, too (8 for 18 with a homer)
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Conforto, McNeil
GPP note – If you’re playing these guys, be sure one of them is Alonso. Otherwise, favor any righties that start, as that’s the best way to get to Fried
Alright guys & gals, that’s going to wrap this one up. Again, be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where everybody is leaning today, and let’s start this weekend off right! I’ll see you all in Slack!
