Hello everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here’s the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version should be ready by around 4:30pm central time.
Early games on top, evening on bottom.
My top pitchers today
Marcus Stroman – Even with so many games, there aren’t any pitchers that really stand out to me like what we get on other slates with some aces going up against weaker teams (I mean, just look at those SIERA scores! Yikes!) However, Stroman has been solid, has the second-best carnage rating of the early games, and has the narrative of him needing to perform well in hopes that he gets picked up by the Yankees or another contender. My Royals can be good, but they tend to struggle when a pitcher is in command, so he’s definitely got a lot of upside here. I think he has a pretty healthy floor too, at least better than what most of the pitchers on this slate can offer. There’s very little BvP here too, which is something I tend to give to the pitcher as an advantage. I like him in all formats today.
Michael Pineda – With the best carnage rating on the early slate (nearly best on the board, only beaten out by Kershaw on the initials), Pineda makes an interesting option today. Like Stroman, there’s hardly any BvP here, which again, I give the advantage to the pitcher. I think I would prefer Stroman on FanDuel, but I don’t mind Pineda as an SP2 option on DraftKings since there’s not really anybody to pay up for in cash games.
Homer Bailey – Can’t believe I’m writing up Homer Bailey (2019, what a time to be alive!), but he comes in third on today’s carnage report, and actually has the highest strikeout projection of the entire slate at 5.56 strikeouts. Like the other two, there’s almost zero BvP here as well, so I could definitely see Bailey having another one of his quality outings. I’d probably lean GPP here, but definitely don’t overlook him here today, as another decent score could easily put him in the winning lineups with how rocky the other pitchers are looking.
Justin Verlander – For your evening games, look to Verlander as a power option in all formats. He has by far the most Vegas love (opened at -310 moneyline), and outside of Seager, the Mariners haven’t had a ton of success against him in the past. For cash games, you can just plug him in and move on, though be sure to have some exposure to him in GPP too because he does have one, if not the, highest ceiling on this small slate.
Chris Paddack – It’s no secret that Paddack has struggled a bit as of late, so hopefully that will keep his ownership down. You see, as we’ve exploited before, the Cardinals tend to do poorly against pitchers they’ve not had much experience against, and they’ve hardly seen Paddack at all. This is a terrific spot for him to bounce back, and we know he has tremendous upside when he’s on, so don’t sleep on him today!! I love him as a GPP pivot, or you can stack him with one of the other elite arms to be a little different, as I don’t think that will be a popular choice at all. Either way, definitely get some exposure to him in GPP tonight!
Pitchers to attack
You can see all the red on the carnage report above, but the main ones I wanted to highlight are Indians and Astros, as I think they have the best matchups on their slates. I’ll talk more about them later, but for now, consider them, the Yankees, Cubs, Mets, Padres, and Angels for your main stacks, as they get the best carnage matchups today.
Early games
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
We’ll kick things off with our European games, where the Yankees and Red Sox will face off at London Stadium, an MLB first. You can read more about this stadium here, but spoiler alert, it’s not very big! Both offenses are in play here, as I think they’ll be itching to put on a good show, but especially the Yankees as they get the better matchup (and have lots of BvP against Porcello). The Red Sox aren’t too far behind, as they know Tanaka very well, though he’s been pretty tough this year. Basically, look at the Yankees in all formats, but don’t be afraid to load up on some Red Sox for GPP purposes.
Yankees 5 star plays – Sanchez
Yankees 4 star plays – Gardner/Encarnacion (BvP), Hicks, Judge, DJ, Voit
GPP note – A powerhouse team meets a 385-foot field on a stage possibly bigger than their own stadium. Load up with confidence
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez/Betts/Bogaerts (BvP), Benintendi
GPP note – Don’t be afraid to load up on these guys in GPP, especially the four above as they have plenty of experience and homers against Tanaka. This will be a neutral environment and I can guarantee they’ll want to show up their rivals in this MLB-first game in Europe
Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
Our next game will be hosted at another hitter-friendly ballpark, and after getting stomped last night, I think the Indians will return the favor here against Cashner and the O’s. They get one of the best carnage ratings (7.12) and SIERAs (5.73) on the board today, so don’t forget to grab some shares of them, even if they let you down last night (remember, they let down a lot of people, and the masses don’t like to go right back to a team that burned them the night before).
Indians 5 star plays – Ramirez (BvP)
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Santana, Mercado
GPP note– Feel free to stack away here, but no matter what you do, be sure to have Ramirez in your GPP pool today
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Smith Jr, Villar, Mancini
GPP note – I don’t expect them to put up 13 runs again today, but they’re in a good spot, so don’t be afraid to go here (or fade them if you think they’ll be chalky and hope for a dud)
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays
I think this next game has a good chance of playing to the under (see the pitcher’s notes above), so I would definitely have exposure to both of these pitchers today. I don’t really like full stacks here, but I think some mini-stacks or one-offs are in play, as there could be a home run or two here.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Gordon, Dozier
GPP note – I can’t really get behind full stacks here, but a one-off or two would be okay. Merrifield really bombed yesterday, and he’s been known to come back with a bang whenever that happens, so don’t sleep on him
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Gurriel, Sogard, Tellez
GPP note – I don’t hate full stacks here, but I don’t really like them all that much. I’d prefer to grab a bat or two (somebody hot like Gurriel or with upside like Sogard/Tellez) and move on
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
This one is a little interesting. The Rays have been a little quiet lately (at least, compared to what they were doing earlier in the season), though they do get a pitcher who has been known to implode with the worst of them. This gives us a situation where we can take some shares of Sampson and hope the Rays are still quiet, and hedge those lineups with a few Rays stacks and hope that they’re able to get back on track against a soft pitcher.
As for the Rangers, they’ll face McKay who gets his MLB debut today, and it should be noted that they’re calling him up for two starts. That means he’s going to have to be at his absolute best if he wants to get another shot, so for that reason, I don’t mind taking some shots with him for the narrative. However, there’s no telling how many pitches or innings he’ll get, so I’d keep him for GPP and look elsewhere for cash games. Like the Rays, it might not be a bad idea to hedge here, as it’s possible he has some butterflies and isn’t quite at his best, and we know the Rangers are quick to take advantage of iffy pitching if they show any signs of blood in the water.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Santana, DeShields, Gallo, Mazara
GPP note – It’s hard to know what we’ll get out of McKay, so if you’re going here, I’d probably go heavy and hope his first outing isn’t a very good one (favor the four above and the other righties)
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Pham, Choi, Meadows
GPP note – They’re in a little slump, but get to face a pitcher that could help them get out of it. Like the Rangers, if you go here, I’d go heavy with full stacks and hope they break out of their mid-season slump
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
The implied total on this game is on the lower side, but with how these two pitchers have looked, I can’t say I’m too surprised. I think both of them make good GPP targets, though for cash games I think we can look elsewhere. The Phillies have never faced Yamamato, which could limit their upside here if they haven’t looked into how to approach him, so I’d probably go with smaller stacks or one-offs there. The Marlins have seen Eflin plenty though, so you could go light or heavy there in GPP. For cash games, we have better targets with this many games available.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Hoskins, Segura, Bruce
GPP note – I’d be a little careful with full stacks here as they’ve never faced this pitcher (and he’s looked good so far, and not a pushover that the Phillies like to pick on)
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Anderson/Rojas/Granderson (BvP), Walker
GPP note – The three above have a fair amount of BvP against Eflin (good averages and at least 1 home run…2 for Granderson), so if you stack here, be sure to include them. Otherwise, favor the lefties
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
2019 has been anything but a good year for Quintana, and he’ll face a Reds team that likes to go off randomly at a good hitter’s park. This makes me interested in some Reds stacks, especially those with some BvP against him (noted below). I can’t say I love the Cubs offense here, as they do have a tougher matchup against a much more reliable pitcher, but some one-offs or contrarian stacks can be utilized here.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Schwarber (BvP), Rizzo, Bryant, Heyward
GPP note – Contrarian stacks are viable, but the four above are your best bets to start with. Schwarber makes a good one-off with his BvP (
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Senzel, Suarez (BvP), Puig, Ervin (BvP)
GPP note – This is a decent spot for the Reds to have another big game. Favor the righties and BvP guys
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers
We get two questionable pitchers in this next one, so I see GPP written all over it. Voth looked great in his 2019 debut, but with only one game under his belt, it’s hard to know where he is. Still, he’ll get a decent matchup here, so don’t be afraid to run him in GPP in case he repeats that performance. On the other side, Soto had a pretty rough start to his season, so don’t be afraid to attack him again here in case he still isn’t right. I don’t really see him overpowering the Nationals here and competing with the kind of ceiling that Voth might have, but I guess you could do worse for MME purposes. I wouldn’t trust either one of them in cash games, though.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Turner, Kendrick
GPP note – They’ve never face Soto, which may hurt full stacks a little, but smaller stacks or one-offs are definitely in play (especially Rendon)
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Stewart, Castellanos, Goodrum
GPP note – Voth may be really good or just had a ceiling game in his debut, it’s hard to know at this point. Can’t say I love full stacks here either way, so I’d stick to smaller exposure
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Vegas is calling for a fairly average game here, but with how much history and BvP there is between these offenses/pitchers, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one go to the over. I think full stacks on either team are in play here, and even game stacks if you want to be a little different. Favor the BvP bats (noted below), but all of the hot-running bats are in play (also noted below).
Braves 5 star plays – Freeman (BvP), Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Donaldson (BvP), Swanson, Riley
GPP note – Stack away here, but favor the BvP, righties, and Acuna
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto (BvP), McNeil, Alonso, Ramos (BvP)
GPP note – Same as above. Full stacks or even game stacks are in play here, and the average Vegas outlook may keep ownership lower than deserved
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Our final game on the early slate features one of my other pitching options with Pineda (see pitcher’s notes above for more info), as well as a dangerous offense that has been a little quiet lately. Don’t let that scare you off though, as Nova is a great target to attack with left-handed bats, and we know how much noise they can make when they’re on. People will hopefully be off them a bit here since they’ve been getting burned, but I could definitely see them getting right back at it here today.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Cruz, Sano
GPP note – Full stacks are in play here, but be sure to favor the lefties against Nova
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Moncada
GPP note – I like Pineda as a pitching option today, so I can’t say I love these guys. I’d go light or just look elsewhere
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Evening games
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
We’ll kick off the late games with Coors, but this time things are a little different. We get much better pitching today, with Kershaw the ace and Gray who knows how to hold his own at this hitter’s paradise. It’s risky, but both pitchers are squarely in play for GPP purposes (we can do better for cash games though).
As for the bats, both teams are quite familiar with each other’s starting pitcher, so they’re certainly in play too. Muncy and Pederson both have two homers against Gray, while Verdugo has one. Bellinger doesn’t have any, but he’s a whopping 8 for 11 with only one strikeout, so he’ll bring a high floor and ceiling to this one. On the other side, Arenado has 3 homers against Kershaw, Blackmon has 2, and Iannetta/Reynolds/Murphy all have one. All of these bats are in play here (given they all start), and both teams are worth stacking in GPP. For cash games you don’t need to load up the entire game, but definitely grab a few of these bats.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy, Pederson, Verdugo
GPP note– Stack here as much as you want, especially the lefties and BvP homers (noted above)
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Arenado, Blackmon
GPP note – The main two guys are in play here, as well as Iannetta/Reynolds/Murphy if they play. Full or partial stacks are in order, so don’t be afraid to attack Kershaw here as they know him pretty well
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers seem to be slipping (or are already there) into a mid-season slump, which means people might not be too excited to jump on them. I know it’s hard to want to keep riding a team until they break out of a slump, but when they do it, you know they’re going to do it with a massive game. It very well could be today against Lyles who hasn’t shown that he’s overly dominant, so don’t feel like you HAVE to avoid them just because they haven’t done the damage we’ve come to expect out of them.
As for the Pirates, they’ve had some hot games here recently, but they’ll have to face Woodruff who has had some pretty decent games of his own. I’d prefer to attack him with one-offs or mini-stacks if I’m going to attack him, rather than full stacks.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Marte (BvP), Bell, Newman, Moran
GPP note – Not an easy matchup against Woodruff, so you may want to scale back the stacks here and focus more on one-offs or mini-stacks (favor the four above)
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Grandal, Thames
GPP note – They’re looking like a slumping team, but they’ll eventually break out of it with a bang. If you’re stacking here, be sure to favor the lefties, especially the four above
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
We get our other ace on the slate here with Verlander, who makes the best cash game option on the board. As I mentioned earlier, he’s also got an elite ceiling in GPP, so don’t be afraid to pay up for him there too. That puts a pretty strict ceiling on the Mariners today, and outside of Seager and his BvP, I don’t have any interest in the rest of them.
Kikuchi started off the year well but has turned into a bit of a gas can, so this would be a great spot to load up on the Astros, as they’ll have a decent shot at a 10+ run game here. Favor the righties, but really, anybody is in play here and you may have to get a little funky to be different, as this team may be a little chalky on this short slate.
Special note – multiple Houston bats show up on the classic batter sheet today, which is a really good sign that they’ve got a good shot at a big game!
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Seager (BvP)
GPP note – Take Seager as a contrarian one-off or move on. Full contrarian stacks aren’t likely to pay off here
Astros 5 star plays – Springer, Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Gurriel, Brantley
GPP note – This is a potential blowup spot for the Astros, so be sure to have some shares of big stacks here. If you want to be a little creative, try some wrap-around stacks with the righties, but don’t neglect the main 5 guys above
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
Our lowest implied total on the board comes with our next game with Greinke and Pomeranz, but there are some interesting things going on here. Let’s go over them!
Pomeranz finally had himself a big game (by his 2019 standards, at least), so he’ll look to keep building on that momentum. I don’t think he’ll repeat that 11 strikeout performance, but I do think he has a reasonable shot at another decent score, which really won’t have to be a ton considering how cheap he is. I think he makes a fine punt option for GPP on both sides, but more over on DK as an SP2.
As for Greinke, we know the kind of upside he has, but he does have two big strikes against him here. For one, there’s a lot of BvP history here, as the Giants know him pretty well. The second one is the fact that like the Astros, a lot of Giants are showing up on the classic batter sheet, so I really like them as a contrarian stack today. People don’t like stacking them because it’s hard to know when they’re going to go off, but if I had to choose a specific day to do it, it would be today.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Escobar, Dyson
GPP note – I don’t love full stacks here, but maybe some smaller stacks or one-offs would be in play (mostly the three above)
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Yastrzemski, Sandoval, Vogt, Crawford
GPP note – Full contrarian stacks are absolutely in play here. Favor the five above, but any lefty is in play
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
The last time we had this matchup, Skaggs surrendered 5 runs on 9 hits in only 4 innings. He’ll be looking to even the score today, so really, both sides of this one are in play today. Hedge ’em up!
On the other side, the Angels get the second-best carnage rating on the board today against Anderson (7.55 on the initial run), making them a good target in all formats.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Davis/Semien (BvP), Chapman, Canha, Olson
GPP note – They did some damage against Skaggs not too long ago and can do it again here today. Favor the five above
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Pujols, Fletcher, Ohtani, Calhoun (BvP)
GPP note – Full stacks are in play here as well. It’s been a while since Fletcher had one of his big games, but I really like his chances of having one today. Be sure you have some exposure to him today! Otherwise, favor the righties whenever possible
St Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
And finally, our hammer game of the day features a struggling ace going up against a team that tends to be pretty bad against pitchers they don’t have much experience against. If you recall from earlier in the article, I love attacking that, which makes me love Paddack tonight. I think this is a great spot for him to bounce back, and I love him as a pivot to the other aces (or you can try stacking them on DK instead of paying down for an SP2). This, of course, makes me very uninterested in the Cardinals bats.
The Padres haven’t seen Hudson either, so this one could be a bit underwhelming for the offenses, at least for the first half of the game. With that in mind, I would only play Padres that have big power upside (noted below), as they may only have one or two decent at-bats to really work with here.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Carpenter, Goldschmidt
GPP note – I don’t really like any of these bats today. Pass
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer, Renfroe
GPP note – If they can’t get big hits, then I’m not very interested in them in this matchup. If you’re going here, favor the three above as they have the most power upside on the team (Tatis, Reyes, and Garcia can be considered 3 star plays)
Alright guys & gals, that’s going to wrap this one up. Again, be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where everybody is leaning today, and let’s start this weekend off right! I’ll see you all in Slack!
