Hello everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! This is my first VIP-only version of this article, so bear with me as there will be some changes in here.
To start, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
I won’t show the carnage report in here since they will change throughout the day, but you can check it out right here to get the most up-to-date information.
Pitchers to consider
Whew, this slate looks a little rough! Nobody has a carnage rating better than 4.37 on the initials (let’s hope the updated run has something better), five pitchers have a carnage rating of 6.25 or worse, only three have a KSCORE above 500, and all but two of them have a SIERA at 4.02 or above. Not good!
The first thing we can assume is that this could be a fairly high-scoring slate, even if it is only 7 games. There’s a good chance that most of our 14 pitchers today get knocked around a bit, so we have two main options – either pay up for two of the “safer” arms (i.e. Kershaw/Giolito), or pay down for some pitchers with high KCSOREs and hope they return enough value to pay off (i.e. Rodriguez/Sabathia).
As we get some information from Vegas and get a chance to dig in more, we’ll have a better idea of where we want to go. Be sure to check the coach’s notes page to see where they’re leaning!
Pitchers to attack
On the flip side, we have a ton of good targets to attack today, so we may have to rely on our batters to carry our lineups. The Yankees have the best carnage rating matchup (7.77 initial), followed by the Mets, Indians, Braves, and Dodgers. I would look at those offenses for stacking options. For now, let’s check out each game today:
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
We get a few big pieces of the day here in our first game – both a dangerous offense in the Yankees and one of our mid-ranged pitching options with Sabathia. Outside of Grichuk and Teoscar, there’s not much BvP here against Sabathia, and Vegas is siding heavily with him, so we can probably look to him as a pitching option in all formats today.
As for the bats, Sanchez has been soft to both sides of the plate, but has actually been worse to righties, which does not bode well for him here. There’s not a ton of BvP to go off of here, so we’ll have to rely on the other stats to point us in the right direction. Fortunately, that’s easy with this team!
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Grichuk/Hernandez (BvP)
GPP note – Sabathia is good at mitigating damage, so I’d probably look to the two BvP options and move on
Yankees 5 star plays – Sanchez
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton, Judge, Voit, Torres, etc
GPP note – Any kind of exposure to this dangerous offense is good. Literally everybody is in play here from one-offs to full stacks. Go here with confidence in all formats
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
We have some more good batting options with our next game, both popular choices with the Phillies and some lower-owned options with the Mets. Both pitchers have been softer against lefties than righties (reverse splits for Matz), so be sure to give them a look today.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto/Frazier (BvP), McNeil, Alonso
GPP note – The Mets make a good contrarian stack, as they like to go off without any warning. Even without doing full stacks, Conforto and Frazier are worth a look as they have some decent BvP (both with a homer) against Eflin, and McNeil/Alonso have been smashing the ball. If you don’t take big stacks here, consider some one-offs or mini-stacks
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Hoskins, Kingery (BvP), Realmuto
GPP note – Matz has been worse to lefties, so go for them if you want to be a little contrarian on a team that won’t go under the radar (Harper/Bruce)
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
As of right now this game looks to have some weather concerns, so be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Weather concerns aside, we get a divisional game here, and the Indians don’t mind beating up on my Royals when given the chance. If they play, look to them in all formats today, especially Lindor and Santana.
As for my Royals, they’re showing some signs of life and get a decent enough matchup to where they might be able to keep up with the Indians, so don’t be afraid to grab some shares of them as well. In fact, I don’t mind a few lineups of full game stacks here, as I could see both sides doing some damage here.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Gordon, Dozier, Soler
GPP note – Another good contrarian stack, don’t be afraid to go here (so long as the weather holds). Plutko also has reverse splits, so go with the righties along with Gordon
Indians 5 star plays – Lindor, Santana
Indians 4 star plays – Kipnis, Ramirez, Mercado
GPP note – This is a bit of a blow-up spot for the Indians, so stack here if you want to pivot away from the Yankees/Phillies (or grab some pieces of them too, they’re all good today!)
Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox
We get two solid pitchers here, and even though they have a 9.5 implied total, I feel like this one will play to the under. I can’t say I love full stacks for either team here, as I would rather pick on softer pitching. A few one-offs aren’t out of the question, though.
As for the pitchers, I like both of them for different things. Rodriguez looks to be a good mid-ranged option for all formats, while Giolito makes a nice GPP option with plenty of upside (granted he is facing the Red Sox, so I wouldn’t go here in cash games). He does have the best carnage rating on the board today, so he’s worth having some exposure to in GPP.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – McCann (BvP – two homers), Jimenez, Anderson
GPP note – I’m not a big fan of full stacks here, but one-offs or mini-stacks are in play for GPP
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi (BvP – 2 for 6 with a homer)
GPP note – This is a difficult matchup for the Red Sox, so I’d rather go with smaller stacks or one-offs here instead of full stacks
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
This next game offers plenty of GPP options on both sides – both pitchers have a risky floor here but reasonably high ceilings, and same can be said about the offenses too. I’m inclined to take pieces of all four sides of this one, but if you’re having any troubles narrowing it down, check out the coach’s notes and/or come discuss it in Slack!
Statistically, the best target here would be attacking Lester with the Atlanta righties, though he has been a bit soft to both sides of the plate.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Freeman, Riley, Albies (BvP – 5 for 5 with a homer)
GPP note – If you go here, go hard with full stacks and hope for a Lester implosion. Favor the righties, but lefties are in play here too
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Rizzo (BvP – 4 for 20 with a homer), Schwarber, Bryant
GPP note – Teheran has only allowed 1 homer in his last 9 starts and has done a good job of mitigating damage. You could load up here and hope that either he implodes or that the bullpen does, or go with a strong one-off like Rizzo and move on
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
We get two of our high-ceiling pitchers here with Kershaw and Greinke. Both of them face a capable offense but have high ceilings, so definitely get some exposure to them in GPP if you aren’t using them in cash games. The Dodgers have seen Greinke a lot, and have plenty of BvP against him to show for it, but keep in mind that a lot of it was back when Chase Field was a more hitter-friendly atmosphere. Greinke is tough at home so don’t sleep on him here (GPP only).
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Bellinger, Pederson, Muncy, Turner
GPP note – I would lean more towards using more recent data instead of BvP, as a lot of it is inflated from when this ballpark was better for hitters. That said, Greinke can be tough at home, so going with full stacks here might not be the best option. I’d lean more towards one-offs or mini-stacks.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte (BvP – 5 for 19 with 2 homers), Escobar (BvP – 2 for 6 with a homer), Walker (BvP – 2 for 5 with 2 homers)
GPP note – If you want to go contrarian here, be sure to look at the BvP targets listed just above. I don’t mind limiting the Arizona player pool to just those three for a smaller stack, since full stacks against Kershaw don’t often pay off
Editor’s Note – We talk a lot of gpp with MLB DFS, and it’s because the volatility of the sport leads to some really good nights…….and some really bad nights. However, there is still a need to talk a little cash game for those playing things a little safer. Have you seen our Strategy Tab on the website? I see a lot of questions centered on cash games, and I can always point people to our strategy tab for timeless advice. Here is an article covering 7 quick cash game tips… 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
And finally, our hammer game will be in San Francisco, which is quite the opposite of what the Rockies are used to at their home. Either way, Pomeranz has proven to be a decent target to attack, so don’t be afraid to grab some shares of the Rockies, even if they’re not at home. He’s been a bit soft to both sides of the plate, but especially righties, so keep that in mind.
As for the Giants, they’ll have a tough matchup against Gray, who makes another good pitching option tonight, and seeing as they tend to spread out fantasy production a ton anyway, I can’t say I’m liking them very much here.
Rockies 5 star plays – Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon, Desmond
GPP note – You can just pretend they’re at Coors and stack them here, as they’re absolutely in play against Pomeranz. Favor the righties but don’t be afraid of the hot-hitting lefties like Blackmon
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt (BvP – 4 for 14 with one homer), Panik, Yastrzemski
GPP note – Not much to love here, but if you want a lower-owned stack that could blow up out of nowhere, you could try your luck with these guys. Gray has been tough to both sides of the plate but I would lean towards using the lefties if I had to choose a plan of attack
Alright guys & gals, that’s going to wrap this one up. Again, be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where everybody is leaning today, and let’s start this week off right! I’ll see you all in Slack!
