Hello again everyone! nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me on Twitter, or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
Here are some of last week’s NASCAR winners one last time. Don’t worry, I’ll be sure to show off today’s winners for you all tomorrow!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
No real surprises here, as Cole leads the way today, followed by Hill and Strahm. We have another mystery man too, and those are always fun. I think the more interesting thing to note is that Scherzer isn’t up here today, and he isn’t getting a ton of love from Vegas, either. Interesting.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
We have several solid options here, as well as a mystery team that’s going to be for our VIPs only. And no, it’s not the Reds. That would be silly!
San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off today with our Camden Yards game, which will feature a soft-throwing righty and a Shark. Both teams are in good spots to go bananas, so if you want your lineup(s) to be almost fully active by 1:05 PM, you could get away with it here today.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Panik, Yastrzemski, Sandoval
GPP note – Another good matchup for the Giants who love to string together hits. Stacks are in play here again today
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Smith Jr, Mancini, Nunez
GPP note – Good spot at home for these guys too, though they haven’t seen much of Shark before
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays
Our next game features the Twins facing a…oh man, a lefty. That’s not good! Not for Rays fans, at least. We know what these Twins are capable of, and it’s not pretty for the opposing team, so be sure to get some exposure to them here. The Rays will have to face Odorizzi, who isn’t too far off from being called a stud, so look for the Twins to have the upper hand here on all fronts.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Cron, Polanco, Kepler, Sano, Rosario…etc
GPP note – This could get ugly…fast
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, Meadows
GPP note – Not a super great matchup, so we can probably look elsewhere with so many games to go around
Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds
I want to say “happy Mad Max day!” here, but man…where’s the Vegas love?! Wherever it is, it isn’t here, and I can only see a little sign that reads “contrarian stacks.” I don’t think I’m alone here, so if there was ever a chalky contrarian stack, this would be it. Do with that what you will!
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Soto, Turner
GPP note – Tough matchup against Gray, so smaller stacks might be best
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Dietrich
GPP note – Difficult matchup against Scherzer, but that implied total is higher than expected. Stack away?
Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves
2019 Boyd will take his hot streak against the Braves today, a team that is good at being pretty unpredictable in terms of how they’re going to perform. That certainly helps Boyd’s ceiling here, because if they’re off, he could be right up there with the best of them today. Teheran will battle the Tigers, who know how to strike out in bunches, so I could definitely see this one playing to the under.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Goodrum
GPP note – Not a great matchup and the Tigers have very little experience against Teheran. Next!
Braves 5 star plays -none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Riley, Swanson, Donaldson
GPP note – Boyd has been solid, so it is difficult to want to attack him. If you do, go with some righties with a high ceiling like Acuna
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Davies and Lyles will try their best to keep the other team down here, and they’ll have their work cut out for them, as both teams are dangerous and can spam runs in the blink of an eye. Everything is in play here, from one-offs to full game stacks. Favor the lefties if you can.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Grandal
GPP note – Lyles is no pushover, but who am I kidding? Stacks are always in play here
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Bell, Polanco, Moran
GPP note – The Pirates like to fight back, so they’re definitely in play here too. Another game stack, perhaps?
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox stud will face Plesac and the Indians today, a team that really knows how to hit that snooze button from time to time. His ceiling is right up there with Cole today, because if the Indians are sleeping for this one, he could go on a strikeout spree. The White Sox haven’t seen Plesac yet, but they definitely know how to throw a welcome party (they do it with full stacks).
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Santana, Ramirez
GPP note – Giolito has proven to be a tough pitcher to attack, so we may want to lay a litle low here
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Moncada, Abreu, Alonso, Anderson
GPP note – They would love to beat up on the new guy in his first start at this division rivals’ house, so don’t be shy!
Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
Game #2 between these two teams in this current series will feature two competent pitchers who will need to be on their a-game to avoid getting shelled by the other team. I love the Cardinals yesterday and I love them again here. The Cubs will have the tougher matchup, facing Wanwright at home, but anything is possible here.
Cubs 5 star plays – Rizzo
Cubs 4 star plays – Bryant, Schwarber, Heyward
GPP note – Wainwright has a history of being solid at home, but nothing is off limits in this rivalry
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Ozuna, Goldschmidt, DeJong, Martinez
GPP note – Oh my, what a matchup for the righties!
Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers
My Royals finally get a juicy matchup here, this time against Sampson, who has been pretty soft to both sides of the plate. Keller has been up and down all season, and if he’s down again today, this game could get out of hand in a hurry. If there’s a game on the slate that can compete with Coors’ upside, it would be this one.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Mondesi, Gordon, Merrifield, Lopez
GPP note – I love it when my Royals are in a good spot. You should, too!
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Gallo(?), Choo, Mazara, Odor
GPP note – Keller is a roller coaster and the Rangers will look to derail it here. Full stacks are in order, especially lefties
Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies
It’s a Coors game with two pitchers that may only last a handful of innings each. They’ll be popular again, but sometimes you just have to decide if you want to join the chalk party or try and leverage it elsewhere.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero Jr, Tellez, Galvis
GPP note – Soft pitching from start to finish, following yesterday’s dud? Yes, please!
Rockies 5 star plays – Arenado, Story
Rockies 4 star plays – Tapia, Murphy, Dahl, McMahon
GPP note – Another Coors slate, another big implied total, another chalk-fest. Choose your side and approach them accordingly
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics
It’s strange to see Houston have a 4.00 implied total, but here we are. While it’s true they are down on studs, they still have a lot of talent in this lineup, so don’t overlook them. The A’s will have to face Cole, who probably has the highest ceiling on the board with all the strikeout potential here. Good luck, Oakland!
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Brantley
GPP note – Not an easy matchup against Bassitt, but they can still go off, even without 3 of their biggest guns
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson, Semien
GPP note – Pretty difficult matchup against Cole, so expect their ceilings to be limited here
New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks
This next game carries a 9 implied total, split right down the middle, but I think that’s a little interesting when you consider the matchup. I’d expect the Mets to have the upper hand here, as they get a nice matchup against Kelly.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto, Smith, Alonso
GPP note – Nice matchup against Kelly, and they’ve been fairly hot lately, so stacks of any size are in play here
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Jones, Walker
GPP note – Matz can limit an offense for a while when he’s on, so be a little careful here. Smaller stacks or one-offs might be better than full stacks
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
We get a new pitcher in this one – Jose Suarez – who we don’t know a whole lot about. We do know that the Mariners are turning into a very hit-or-miss team, so having exposure to both sides of this one wouldn’t be a terrible idea, as one side could do some damage here. The Angels are in play too, of course, as Gonzales is a nice target for righties.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Fletcher, Pujols
GPP note – Warning: incoming field day for Angels righties
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Encarnacion, Haniger, Santana
GPP note – It’s a new pitcher, so we never really know what we’ll get, but greeting him with some righties doesn’t sound like a bad idea
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers get another righty here, which means we’ll probably see that tried and true lefty-heavy lineup again. That squad is almost always in play, as is Hill, who might have one of the higher ceilings today, especially if they let him eat some innings again. It won’t be easy, but I don’t think it’ll be a popular choice amongst the field, either.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Hoskins, Segura, McCutchen, Realmuto
GPP note – Hill is tough, so if you stack here, pray he has a bad outing or gets pulled a little early
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Muncy, Seager, Beaty
GPP note – Another righty, another smash spot for the Dodger lefties
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
And finally, our hammer game features a couple of mostly solid pitchers facing off with a low implied total. This one looks like it could play to the under, though if I had to choose, I would say the Padres have the better chance of doing excessive damage here (though I don’t love their chances by any means).
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Castro, Anderson
GPP note – Strahm keeps chucking away and limits offenses most of the time, but can give up the random home run, so one-offs or small stacks would be best here
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Hosmer, Machado, Renfroe
GPP note – A mostly average matchup, which means they’ll probably go overlooked, so if you want to be a little different, this wouldn’t be a terrible place to go
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 1:
This entire tier is filled with hot-hitting batters, so how do we choose?! Well, when we look at the raw numbers here (and the BvP), we see that Rizzo stands above the rest as a solid option for all formats, followed by Pederson. I’d look at one of those two for your cash games. For GPP, well…a case could probably be made for all of them, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to try and narrow down some of the other tiers so you can get more exposure to this one.
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
If you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. As you saw, we cover (and win!) all sports, not just the common ones. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all have a great day!
