Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. I normally give a quick glimpse of the top three pitchers in this report, but I’m going to leave that for VIP members for this slate, instead, I’ll break down some guys in interesting spots.
- Gerrit Cole – This selection should not surprise you, he is the most expensive pitcher on the slate for a reason. The thing that is interesting about him, is just that, his price. It will be extremely hard to fit him in along with an upper end or even average stack. Yes, its a great matchup with the Orioles, but they are striking out than most people think. They are only striking out at a rate of 22%, now Cole has an elite strikeout rate which will help his cause, but we’ve seen expensive pitcher after expensive pitcher disappoint this year, so he’s certainly not a must play.
- Brandon Woodruff – Woody feels very underpriced here, he’s coming off a bad start, but that’s after a string of great pitching. Before his last start, he had scored at least 20 Draftkings points in six straight starts. The concerning part about this is his lone bad start came in his last outing against these same Pirates. I think he’s very viable given his discounted price tag, however.
- Homer Bailey – You had to know I was going to bring up my boy Homer. HE IS PRICED AT $4,500 ON DRAFTKINGS. I can guarantee you that I will have at least a little exposure here, and that is being conservative. I touched on pitchers disappointing this year when breaking down Cole, so why not spend down and try to attack bats? Not only that but the White Sox strikeout at a rate of 26% this season which will help his floor even if he does give up a few runs. I love Homer Bailey on this slate, and I’m not even ashamed to say it.
Full Count Breakdown:
St. Louis Cardinals (+112) @ Chicago Cubs (-132)
The lone day game lies in Wrigley Field that yields a matchup between Cole Hamels and Miles Mikolas. We will likely have Coaches Notes/Player Picks for the showdown slate here, so make sure to check those out. You also need to take a look at the Weather Station, as you should for every game in Wrigley Field. If the wind is blowing in I will have more interest in the pitchers and visa-versa if it’s blowing out (hard-hitting analysis, I know). With that said, both offenses are lethal, and on a showdown slate, you’re going to want to target righties against Hamels and really any of the big boppers against Mikolas.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, Matt Carpenter
4-star plays: Paul DeJong
GPP Note: I would prefer the Cards stack over the Cubs
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Wind will likely be blowing in, give me the pitchers here
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
I’ve been targeting lefties against Tyler Mahle all season long and I won’t stop here. He’s pitched decently lately, but if the Phillies fly under the radar all day I’ll be all over them. This will be Zach Eflin’s first start since returning from the IL, so I would assume a pitch limit here, I don’t think you can use him as an option and I don’t love the Reds either.
CIN 5-star plays: Derek Dietrich
4-star plays: Nick Senzel
GPP Note: One-offs
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto, Jay Bruce
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Jean Segura
GPP Note: I may be on an island here, but I love the Phillies
Arizona Diamondbacks (+123) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-133)
I really never have much interest in either of these teams, neither team has great pitching or anything to write home about when it comes to bats. With that said people may do some point chasing with Merrill Kelly, but I won’t be on that train. I likely won’t get much of these offenses either.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta
GPP Note: One-offs
TOR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Justin Smoak, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: One-offs
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Rick Porcello and Yonny Chirinos will toe the rubber here. Although I like Chirinos’s talent I don’t like targeting any pitcher against this Red Sox team at home. The Sox score nearly six runs per game at home this season and have one of the best offenses in the league, they may fly under the radar and make for a nice stack if you can afford them. I also don’t hate the Rays against Porcello, he has been pretty average this season.
TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Avasail Garcia, Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: I’ll have some interest in MME
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Michael Chavis, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: They’re a similar price to the Rays, and I like their talent more
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Colorado Rockies (+184) @ New York Mets (-200)
The Mets are big favorites with Jacob deGrom on the mound, coming as no surprise. The Rockies are completely average when they’re away from Coors and I will get myself some deGrom shares here tonight. deGrom had a nice bounce-back start last time out and I’m willing to go right back to the well here. I don’t have a whole lot of interest in either of these offenses give the slate.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like deGrom more than the Rockies
NYM 5-star plays: Robinson Cano (Value), Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: One-offs or a mini-stack
New York Yankees (-127) @ Cleveland Indians (+117)
Domingo German is a guy that I love to watch pitch and really believe in his talent, however, he is extremely boom or bust. I love him for GPPs, but won’t be going there in cash games. The Yankees are very expensive here and I think Plesac can find a way to keep them from winning this slate, not a whole lot stands out here for me.
NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Too expensive for me
CLE 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Fransico Lindor
GPP Note: I have more interest in German on the other side
Minnesota Twins (-135) @ Detroit Tigers (+125)
The Twins have one of the best offenses in the league but run into a great pitcher in Matt Boyd. I won’t have a lot of interest in Boyd here, but I think you can make a case for the Twins in MME at very low exposure. This game was supposed to be Kyle Gibson’s, but we’re still waiting to see who will get the ball. If it’s Gibson I’ll have interest at low ownership, but if it’s a bullpen game it’s an obvious stay away.
MIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: Way off the board MME stack option
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Just not a good offense
Atlanta Braves (-189) @ Miami Marlins (+169)
As much fun as it sounds to target Mike Soroka here, I think I will let all the fish go with him. SP against the Marlins will continue to be popular even though the Marlins are swinging red hot bats and can be very pesky. Yes, I know it’s in Marlins Park, but I think I will go elsewhere here. With that said, I also don’t stack in Miami, so I’ll stay away from both offenses, weird game for me.
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: One-offs
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: I don’t like them, but I also don’t want to target pitching against them, so it’s a stay away for me
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Oakland Athletics (-111) @ Texas Rangers (+103)
Lance Lynn continues to surprise and pitch well until he cools off I don’t think you can target stacks against him. On the other side, the Rangers are very much in play here with Brett Anderson on the mound. Give me all the righties.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Khris Davis
GPP Note: Lynn is pitching out of his mind
TEX 5-star plays: Hunter Pence, Asdrubal Cabrera, Elvis Andrus
4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Delino DeShields
GPP Note: I like a full Rangers stack here
Pittsburgh Pirates (+208) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-228)
The Brewers are massive favorites here as Brandon Woodruff takes the mound. I touched on Woodruff earlier and think he is far too cheap given the matchup and that he is a large favorite at home. This seems like it will be a bullpen game for the Pirates after Rookie Davis starts the game. The Brewers stack is certainly in play here and are up there as a top stack for me.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: More interest in Woodruff
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Travis Shaw (Value), Eric Thames
GPP Note: Love the Brewers here, like usual
Baltimore Orioles (+299) @ Houston Astros (-332)
Talk about big favorites, Gerrit Cole and the Astros are the largest favorites on the slate. I touched on Cole earlier, get him if you can, but it’s not going to easy given his price. As for the offense, they can easily take advantage of the O’s bullpen, I just wish they were healthy.
BAL 5-star plays: No way
4-star plays: No how
GPP Note: Not happening
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Josh Reddick, Robinson Chirinos
GPP Note: Secondary stack for me
Chicago White Sox (+116) @ Kansas City Royals (-124)
I touched on Homer Bailey earlier, but he is a favorite at home in a great matchup at $4500 on Draftkings, I will have a lot of him. If you’re like me, however, make sure you have a White Sox stack somewhere to hedge your Bailey shares! Ivan Nova isn’t great, but the wind will be blowing in at around 10 mph here and the Royals are priced up. I’ll go elsewhere.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: I love Homer Bailey
KCR 5-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Mini-stack or one-offs
Seattle Mariners (+156) @ Los Angeles Angels (-169)
Andrew Heaney is a good pitcher and gets an offense that has been very inconsistent as of late. I really like Andrew Heaney here and will try to get a good amount of exposure to him here. The Angels aren’t a team I like to stack fully because of the bottom of the lineup, but a Mike Trout, Ohtani, and someone else makes for a nice mini stack here.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like Heaney a lot here
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: Mini-stacks
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Washington Nationals (+101) @ San Diego Padres (-109)
This is another one of those ballparks that I often don’t get much offense from. However, I do think Margevicius is a bit of a fraud and I’m willing to stack the Nats in large field tournaments. Margevicius has had negative pitching outings in his past two games and hasn’t hit double digits in DK points in four straight. The Padres are kind of blah here, I don’t mind them here for MME purposes.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Howie Kendrick
GPP Note: Love them for GPPs
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: One-offs
Los Angeles Dodgers (-230) @ San Francisco Giants (+210)
It’s pretty hard not to like Clayton Kershaw here, if you have the money, go get him and I actually like him more at a discount than Gerrit Cole. I like the Dodgers a lot more at home rather than in SF, but a mini-stack against Pomeranz doesn’t seem like the worst idea.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Not the worst, not the best
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Gimme Kershaw
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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