Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
First Things First – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start by looking at the Research Station and find my main targets based on which teams on the slate have the lowest ISO and wOBA’s against that pitcher’s handedness.
- Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg has over a 29% K rate in 2019 and is drawing groundballs at a rate of 52.4%. The Marlins projected lineup is littered with guys who have over a 50% groundball rate against RHP in 2019. He absolutely dominated this team once this season and is a good bet to do so for a second time.
- Walker Buehler – Buehler just struck out 16 Rockies in his last start and faces them without Story in the middle of the lineup. I know we try to avoid pitchers in Coors but Buehler has shown that he is able to pitch there. I am not expecting a monster K game again but the upside is definitely there.
- Chase Anderson – This one may be shocking to you but I can’t ignore what Anderson has done against LHBs so far in 2019. He has held them to a wOBA of just .250 and an ISO of .147 on the season. He has drawn a TON of soft contact and the aEV (average exit velocity) sits at just 83 mph. I expect the Mariners lineup to be pretty LH heavy.
After I get finished looking at pitching, I move on to my hitters. I look for which teams have the highest ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. ISO stands for Isolated Power and it is defined as:
ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account. For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200.
Where do we get most of our fantasy points in DFS baseball? Home runs, and if a player has a high ISO it usually correlates very well with extra-base hits and home runs. So the higher a player’s ISO is, the more likely they are to produce hitting for extra bases and home runs, which in turn = more fantasy points! An average ISO is right around .140 and an elite ISO is anything above .250. Teams with the highest ISO’s on the slate tend to score more runs and are in turn more stackable.
Full Count Breakdown:
Texas Rangers (-112) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Ariel Jurado vs. Spencer Turnbull
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs with two pitchers who have some question marks. I have used both Jurado and Turnbull multiple times this season but this is not the game to be using them. Jurado has struggled mightily recently and is a reverse splits P who has been worse on the road. Turnbull has given up more hits and runs at home this season while struggling with LHBs (the Rangers have some dangerous ones)
TEX 5-star plays: Nomar Mazara, Danny Santana
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at under a 25% rate against RHP this season.
DET 5-star plays: JaCoby Jones
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: DET is striking out at nearly a 27% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Rangers: 4 Stars
Tigers: 2.5 Stars
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (-142)
Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler vs. Aaron Nola
I am very torn on this spot as Vegas tells me to be on Nola, the home/road splits for each P tells me I should be on Nola but the history of each P vs the opponent screams that I should be on Wheeler. The Mets have a bunch of guys that are tearing the cover off the ball over the last week and we can’t ignore it. I may end up moving the Mets up my stack rankings tomorrow. Make sure you check out my coaches notes for FD.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith
GPP Note: Mets are striking out at just over a 23% rate against RHP this season.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: J.T. Realmuto, Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: PHI is striking out at just a 23% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
New York Mets: 3 Stars
Philadelphia Phillies: 2 Stars
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Washington Nationals (-220) @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers: Stephen Strasburg vs. Sandy Alcantara
The Marlins are running into a terrible series having to go up against Scherzer, Corbin, and Strasburg. Much like Corbin and the opposite of Scherzer, Strasburg threw an absolute gem against MIA earlier this season. EVERYTHING points to this being an all-Washington game as the bats have solid numbers against Alcantara. Do NOT over think this one, attack the spot and let others make the mistakes.
WAS 5-star plays: Stephen Strasburg, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Adam Eaton, Trea Turner
GPP Note: WAS is striking out at just over a 23% rate against RHP this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Washington Nationals: 3.5 Stars (May go up)
Miami Marlins: 1 Star
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs (-102)
Starting Pitchers: Bryse Wilson vs. Tyler Chatwood
This game has a total set at 10.5 runs. There has been a decent amount of wind in Chicago this week so we DEFINITELY need to pay attention to the Weather Station on site and in the chat. Wilson has looked overmatched at the MLB level so far but that is to be expected for a 21-year-old who is spending the season in AAA. Chatwood allows so many baserunners and has been smacked around by LHBs so far. I really hope the wind is not blowing in as I like this game on the surface.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Nick Markakis
GPP Note: ATL is striking out at just a 22% rate against RHP this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Cubs are striking out at just over a 23% rate against RHP this season.
STACKABILITY:
Atlanta Braves: 3.5 Stars
Chicago Cubs: 4 Stars
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros (-210)
Starting Pitchers: Joe Musgrove vs. Brad Peacock
This game opened with a total set at 9.5 runs after the Pirates absolutely spanked the Astros on Wednesday night. Musgrove returns to HOU as he was dealt to PIT in the Cole deal. I was very high on the Astros Wednesday night and I think we need to go back to them here for GPP purposes. I don’t want to miss out on an explosive game from the offense. Peacock is definitely in play but the K upside just might not be where we want it to be at his price points.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: PIT is striking out at just a 20% rate against RHP this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: HOU is striking out at just over an 18% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 Stars
Houston Astros: 3.5 Stars
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers (-194)
Starting Pitchers: Mike Leake vs. Chase Anderson
This game opened with a total at 10.5 on Wednesday night. Leake has given up 18 HRs in just 56 road innings this season. That number is nuts for a pitcher like Leake. He has given up 22 HRs in total this season (10 vs LHBs, 12 vs RHBs). Anderson has been really strong against LHBs so far but has struggled mightily vs RHBs. Knowing that I might have to take a few shots with Anderson in GPPs.
SEA 5-star plays: J.P. Crawford
4-star plays: Domingo Santana, Mallex Smith
GPP Note: SEA is striking out at nearly a 25% rate against RHP this season.
MIL 5-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Eric Thames, Ryan Braun
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at under a 26% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Seattle Mariners: 2.5 Stars
Milwaukee Brewers: 4 Stars
Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitchers: Ryne Stanek vs. Martin Perez
This game has no Vegas information as of 1 AM central time. I love the offenses here even with the crush I have on Martin Perez and the changes he has made to his approach. The Twins love comes from the fact they should be seeing an LH long man plus a couple of LH relievers after him. They have destroyed LHP this season and I expect that to continue here. While TB is striking out a lot against LHP, they do have some dangerous bats and they smacked Perez around earlier.
TBR 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Guillermo Heredia, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: TB is striking out at under a 27% rate against LHP this season.
MIN 5-star plays: C.J. Cron, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at just a 20% rate against RHP this season. Against LHP (Beeks) they are striking out at a 20% rate.
Stackability:
Tampa Bay Rays: 3 Stars
Minnesota Twins: 3.5 Stars (Could go up or down based on TB’s projected long reliever)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler vs. Peter Lambert
Buehler struck out 16 in his most recent start, which just so happens to have been against the Rockies. He threw a really strong game earlier this season against Colorado, in Coors. I will definitely have shares of him in GPPs due to his upside and the fact that everybody stays away from pitching in Coors.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo
4-star plays: Matt Beaty, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: The Dodgers are striking out at just a 20% rate against RHP this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: COL is striking out at under a 24% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Los Angeles Dodgers: 4.5 Stars
Colorado Rockies: 1.5 Stars
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a roll in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-108) @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers: Alex Young vs. Tyler Beede
This game has opened with a run total set at 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound here are ones that I think we should pick on/attack on the main slate. My main issue with picking on Young is the fact that the Giants have been so bad against LHP this season. Traditional LHP mashers, Posey and Longoria, are struggling mightily against them this season. Young has been knocked around quite a bit in the PCL (an extreme hitter’s league) this season. Beede just started against ARI in his last outing and gave up 4 runs in 4 innings.
ARI 5-star plays: David Peralta, Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Jake Lamb, Christian Walker
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at under a 23% rate against RHP this season.
SFG 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Pillar, Tyler Austin, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: SF is striking out at a 25% rate against LHP this season.
Stackability:
Arizona Diamondbacks: 3.5 Stars
San Francisco Giants: 2 Stars
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (-164)
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Anderson vs. Griffin Canning
This game opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Canning has thrown a couple of very strong games against the A’s so far in his rookie season. I do have some worries as he has been beaten up more by RHBs and OAK has a bunch of those in the lineup. Overall, the A’s aren’t striking out all that much against RHPs but Canning has been able to pick up 13 Ks in 12 innings against them. Tanner is the second straight Tanner to start against the Angels. He has been impressive against RHBs but has struggled a TON with LHBs so far this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Ramon Laureano
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: OAK is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP this season.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Justin Bour, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: The Angels strike out at just over a 17% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Oakland Athletics: 2.5 Stars
Los Angeles Angels: 3 Stars
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
