Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Steve aka @Mutt_18 on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
First Things First – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start by looking at the Research Station, and find my main targets based on which teams on the slate have the lowest ISO and wOBA’s against that pitchers handedness. I also have made a sheet that takes into account daily stats and matchups for pitchers which is exclusively for our members in the coaching forums. I will post the sheet in those forums shortly. From there I then go to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. After my initial research, I’d rank my top 3 as of now at:
- Gerrit Cole – Cole is actually going to be my favorite tonight over Scherzer, as I believe that he’ll be lower-owned than him and he is still in a great matchup as the Pirates offense has stalled as of late. He has 10K+ upside here.
- Max Scherzer – Gets to face the Marlins in that huge Miami park where they have a team ISO of .113 and K at a 25% rate to RHP’s. My only issue with Scherzer is that he will be very chalky as everyone will see that matchup.
- Blake Snell – Should bounce back after he got lit up in his last start. The Twins offense has seemingly stalled over the past week and he should be pretty low-owned with some serious upside here. Grades out as our 3rd ranked SP on the night according to our DFSArmy grades!
After I get finished looking at pitching, I move on to my hitters. I look for which teams have the highest ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. ISO stands for Isolated Power and it is defined as:
ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account. For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200.
Where do we get most of our fantasy points in DFS baseball? Home runs, and if a player has a high ISO it usually correlates very well with extra base hits and home runs. So the higher a player’s ISO is, the more likely they are to produce hitting for extra bases and home runs, which in turn = more fantasy points! An average ISO is right around .140 and an elite ISO is anything above .250. Teams with the highest ISO’s on the slate tend to score more runs and are in turn more stackable. For more info on how to use ISO to your advantage, check out dabbingpuggle’s Tournament Strategy Guide here!
Full Count Breakdown:
Texas Rangers (-145) @ Detroit Tigers (+125)
Starting Pitchers: Jesse Chavez vs. Jordan Zimmermann
We’ve got a very stackable game here, as I can’t recommend either of these guys as pitching options, even for value. Chavez likely won’t go too deep into this game, and neither should Zimmermann as he has been god awful over the past few years. If you want to get really frisky you could roster Chavez as an SP2 on DK, as the Tigers do K at a high rate to RHP’s (26.2%). I’m going to be more partial towards the Rangers bats as they have a team ISO of .202 and a .339 wOBA which are two key stats for predicting hitting success.
TEX 5-star plays: Nomar Mazara, Shin-Soo Choo
4-star plays: Ronald Guzman, Elvis Andrus, Danny Santana
GPP Note: Rangers have had success against RHP’s so far this year and are one of the better power hitting teams. Zimmerman is allowing both sides of the plate to hammer him, but he is a little bit worse against lefties, and the Rangers have plenty of lefties that can hurt him.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Nick Castellanos, Chris Stewart
GPP Note: If you’re going to stack the Tigers, I’d go with the 3 man stack of the middle of their order. I wouldn’t recommend having them as your main 5 or 4 man stack. But they should be pretty cheap and low owned and they do have some decent upside.
Stackability:
Rangers – 4.5 Stars
Tigers – 3 Stars
New York Mets (+130) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-150)
Starting Pitchers: Walker Lockett vs. Jake Arrieta
We have an NL East matchup here, and it appears that the Mets are basically going to concede this game by throwing Walker Lockett out as he has an ERA over 20 in limited innings, but looking back to his time with the Padres his big league ERA was still over 9. Arrieta on the other hand, has still been pretty mediocre so far this year and is prone to blow up as we’ve seen on a few occasions. The way to attack him would be with lefties and Pete Alonso.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: If you’re not into stacking the Mets, Pete Alonso as a low-owned one off is a great option as he is crushing righties with a .317 ISO.
PHI 5-star plays:Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Jay Bruce
4-star plays: J.T. Realmuto, Scott Kingery, Jean Segura
GPP Note: The Phillies are definitely stackable here, as Lockett has really struggled to get anyone out at the major league level. My favorites are going to be the lefties like Harper, and Bruce (.331 ISO vs RHP’s). But you can really stack this these Phillies, especially being in a nice hitters park at home. They also popped off for 13 runs last night.
Stackability:
New York Mets: 3 Stars
Philadelphia Phillies: 4.5 Stars
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Clayton Richard vs. Undecided
I’m just going to come out and say that the Yankees are going to be one of my top stacks today, as they face off against Clayton Richard, who is veryyyyyy fly ball prone and in the band box that is Yankee stadium that isn’t a good thing. The Yankees have several guys in their order that destroy left-handed pitching and they’ll likely be loading them into their order. Sanchez, Judge, Stanton, Voit, and LeMahieu can all do some serious damage here. I’ll have some interest in the Toronto bats as well, especially if the Yankees decide on a bullpen day.
TOR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Rowdy Tellez, Eric Sogard
GPP Note: The Blue Jays will likely be under-owned here, but they’ve been hitting well over the past few weeks, it’s definitely a good idea if you’re thinking of stacking this game.
NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Edwin Encarnacion
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres, D.J. LeMahieu
GPP Note: Stack the Yankees here, they’re going to be expensive but they should be worth it. They have too many guys in their lineup that can do serious damage and they put up a 10 spot on these same Jays last night. I don’t like Richard’s chances here at all.
Stackability:
Toronto Blue Jays: 3.5 Stars
New York Yankees 5 Stars
San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Logan Allen vs. Jacob Yacabonis
Logan Allen is going to be a very intriguing GPP play here, as he shut down an impressive Brewers offense in his first start (46 FD points!). The issue I have here is that the Orioles are actually pretty good at hitting lefties. They have a few guys that really hit lefties well (Severino, Mancini, and Nunez) who can all do some damage here, especially since Allen will be away from the friendly confines of San Diego. Rogers on the other hand has started 3 games for the Orioles and is sporting an ERA of over 8. UPDATE: Jacob Yacabonis is now starting for the Padres, he is a righty which dampens things a bit, but the Padres are still pretty stackable here.
SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Eric Hosemer, Franmil Reyes, Logan Allen
GPP Note: You can definitely stack Padres here, and where it is a big slate they’ll probably go overlooked a bit here. The weather is Baltimore is also perfect for hitting conditions today according to our weather station. They are very affordable here as well.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Pedro Severino, Trey Mancini, Renato Nunez
GPP Note: Stacking the Orioles will be very contrarian and could pay off in a big way. But I like Allen’s talent here as the O’s are nowhere close to the offense that the Brewers are and he shut them down. I probably wouldn’t stack them but I’d use the 3 guys I listed as one offs.
Stackability:
San Diego Padres: 4 Stars
Baltimore Orioles: 2.5 Stars
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Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Carson Fulmer vs. David Price
Price had a string of 3 QS’s in a row before getting roughed up by the Rangers two starts ago, but he threw a solid 5 innings against the Twins, which is a solid feat with how they’ve been hitting. Price is a decent option as the White Sox have struggled to hit lefties so far this year, as shown by their .140 ISO against LHP’s which ranks 26th in the league. But they do have a few guys I like as one-offs who hit lefties well. The Red Sox offense has been very frustrating over the past few weeks, as they have consistently dudded in some very good matchups. But I’m a glutton for punishment and I’ll have a few shares of Red Sox stacks as Carson Fulmer really has struggled to get outs at the major league level as shown by his ERA which hovers over 6.
CWS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: They would be a very contrarian stack, but I have a hard time stacking against Price, who has been pretty sharp in 4 of his last 5 starts. Abreu and Anderson are both solid one off’s though as they both hit lefties at above league average.
BOS 5-star plays: J.D. Martinez
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, David Price
GPP Note: The Red Sox are stackable, but keep in mind that they have been letting us down in smash spots all year, so I wouldn’t be too overweight on them. Price is a solid option as an SP2 on DK, but really lacks the ceiling I’m looking for on FanDuel.
Stackability:
Chicago White Sox: 1.5 Stars
Boston Red Sox 3.5 Stars
Kansas City Royals (+195) @ Cleveland Indians (-245)
Starting Pitchers: Glenn Sparkman vs. Shane Bieber
I honestly don’t know how he does it, but Glenn Sparkman has continued to defeat the underlying data that says he should be getting lit up in every start. Regression is coming for him, (he has a SIERA of 5 and a hard contact rate of of 39.3% all of which can be found in our Research Station under the SP Matchups tab) especially with how the Indians offense has come alive over the past 2 weeks as they are sporting a .238 team ISO against RHP’s in that same time frame. I feel another offensive explosion coming for the Indians in this one. Bieber has been pretty solid so far this year, and gets a solid matchup here against the Royals who haven’t been hitting that well and one of their best hitters in Adalberto Mondesi on the IL. They have a team ISO .121 over the last 2 weeks against RHP’s which is second worst in the league only to the Marlins, so yeah I like Bieber as an option here. He is also a huge home favorite here at -245, so Vegas also thinks Bieber will shut down this Royals offense.
KAN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: I think Bieber shuts them down in this one, as I stated above the Royals are second to last in a few offensive categories over the past 2 weeks to RHP’s. Only guy I’d consider from here is Merrifield due to his power/speed ceiling combo.
CLE 5-star plays: Shane Bieber, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Orlando Mercado, Jason Kipnis
GPP Note: Indians are very stackable in this game as they are 3rd in team ISO against RHP’s over the past two weeks against RHP’s. Load up on their lefties here. They also let us down in a smash spot last night.
Stackability:
Kansas City Royals: 1 Star
Cleveland Indians: 4.5 Stars
Washington Nationals (-235) @ Miami Marlins (+190)
Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer vs. Trevor Richards
Scherzer has by far the best matchup on the slate. The Marlins are striking out at a 25% rate to RHP’s on the year, and have a team ISO of just .113 which is dead last in the major leagues. He’s expensive, but he has a legit chance at going the distance here with 10+ K’s. He’ll also probably be chalk as well, but he’s a great cash game option on both sites. He also gets the benefit of pitching in Miami which is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the league. Trevor Richards on the other hand, has been improving as of late, and I’m in love with his change-up. I won’t be stacking against him here as I don’t love the Nats offense, but I will only be using him in MME GPPs. The Marlins bats actually make a really interesting low-owned (maybe a bit crazy) stack option here, as they will be unowned and dirt cheap due to the matchup. They’re exactly the kind of leverage you need in big GPP’s.
WAS 5-star plays: Max Scherzer
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner
GPP Note: It’s probably worth fading Scherzer in big tourney’s as he’ll be highly owned. I won’t be stacking Nats bats in this one either, but I like the guys I have listed as one-offs.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Harold Ramirez, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Marlins will be super-low owned and if they can get to Scherzer, they could pay off for huge money. If you’re MMEing I’d definitely have a few Marlins stacks thrown in there. SE I’d probably roll with Scherzer though.
Stackability:
Washington Nationals: 2.5 Stars
Miami Marlins: 2.5 Stars (Super contrarian stack)
Atlanta Braves (-125) @ Chicago Cubs (+105)
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs. Adbert Alzolay
We’ve got a great matchup against two really good young pitchers, as Fried has slowed down a bit after his great start in the bigs, and Alzolay is the Cubs #3 overall prospect who was very good in his 4 innings of work against the Mets. I think that the Cubs will extend him out a bit more in this one, but I realistically don’t see him going more than 5 or 6 innings as they’ll want to limit his workload, and the Braves have been hot. The Cubs are also not slouches against lefties either, as they have a team ISO of .196 against them. If the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, then I’d be all for stacking both sides, but if it’s blowing in, its a boost to both of these pitchers. Keep an eye on that wind as it tends to be milder during the night games but it can still have an impact here.
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: While I’m not too high on Alzolay as a GPP option, I’m likely not stacking against him either, so it’s kind of a wash for this game as I don’t expect there being too many runs scored, but I also don’t see both pitchers going deep enough into this game to really pay off.
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, David Bote
GPP Note: Not high on stacking the Cubbies either, but Baez and Bryant both have elite numbers versus LHP’s.
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Pittsburgh Pirates (+230) @ Houston Astros (-280)
Starting Pitchers: Trevor Williams vs. Gerrit Cole
Williams got roughed up in his last start coming off the IL and things shouldn’t be getting any better here against this Astros team that is getting healthy again. I’m stacking them here in this game. Cole is also an elite option here who will be lower owned than Scherzer as well since people will be jumping all over that matchup against the lowly Marlins. He is another guy who can go 7-8 innings with 10+K’s (he has a 35.8% K% which is the highest on the slate) in this one as the Pirates have been struggling offensively over the past few weeks. Also add some fuel to the fire as this will be his first start since the Pirates let him go.
PITT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Bell is the only guy I really have any interest in, and I won’t have many shares as Cole has been lights out all year.
HOU 5-star plays: Gerrit Cole, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: The Astros are getting scary again, especially with them getting healthy and the addition of Yordan Alvarez to their lineup. Williams got roughed up in his first start back from the IL, and frankly I don’t see things getting much better for him in this one. Stack them Stros.
Stackability:
Pittsburgh Pirates: 1 Star
Houston Astros: 4.5 Stars
Seattle Mariners (+145) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-170)
Starting Pitchers: Marco Gonzales vs. Zach Davies
There’s a lot of really good hitting options on this slate, and the Brewers are also one of them. People will also be scared off of them as they think they are bad at hitting lefties. Good news is I’m here to tell you that it simply isn’t the case. The Brewers have a team ISO of .207 against lefties on the year and Gonzales is a soft tossing lefty who has been very up and down this season. Add in the fact that the Brewers are at home where they are an offensive powerhouse and this looks like it could get ugly quick. The Mariners offense has taken a hit since trading away Encarnacion, but they also still have a few big bats in their lineup that can get to Davies, but he has been better at home.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: I wouldn’t be stacking the Mariners here, as Davies has been decent at limiting damage so far this year, I do like Vogelbach as a one off though.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun
4-star plays: Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar, Orlando Arcia
GPP Note: Brewers should be under-owned in this spot, as most people will overlook them because they are facing a lefty. They are definitely in a smash spot here, and the Mariners bullpen is not strong at all.
Stackability:
Seattle Mariners: 1.5 Stars
Milwaukee Brewers: 4.5 Stars
Tampa Bay Rays (-120) @ Minnesota Twins (+100)
Starting Pitchers: Blake Snell vs. Kyle Gibson
Snell got roughed up in his last start, which was a big surprising as it was actually in a really good matchup. This sets up nicely for us though, as recency bias will have people off of him and Minnesota’s offense has been tanking over the past 2 weeks. On the other side of the ball, Gibson has been pretty solid for the Twins so far this year, but he has regressed a bit over his last few starts. I’ll be looking towards going at the pitching options here more than I am the bats. I’d recommend you do the same. He’s got the 3rd highest DFSArmy grade today:

TBR 5-star plays: Blake Snell
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: I like the idea of rostering Snell here in a bounce back game at low ownership. He can give you a real boost if he shuts this Twins team down, which he has the ability to do. They’ve been cold over the past week or so.
MIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Kyle Gibson, Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron
GPP Note: Like I said above, I’m probably not stacking the Twins offense here, but Gibson is a decent option against a Rays team that does like to strike out. I will however be rostering Nelson Cruz and C.J. Cron as one-offs here though, as Cruz has an ISO of .319 against LHP’s with Cron not far behind him at .353.
Stackability:
Tampa Bay Rays: 2 Stars
Minnesota Twins: 2.5 Stars
Oakland Athletics (+115) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-135)
Starting Pitchers: Chris Bassitt vs. Jack Flaherty
This is another game I see as being pretty low scoring, as Flaherty has been pretty sharp so far this season (averaging 33.7 FD points over his last 3 starts), and Bassitt hasn’t been too shabby himself (35 FD points in his last start), and the Cardinals are in the bottom 3 of many offensive categories and have been ice cold over the past month. This is another game where I’ll be looking more towards the pitching options than I am bats.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Chris Bassitt, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: With how cold the Cardinals have been, it makes Bassitt a very intriguing SP2 option especially on DraftKings. I’d even recommend playing him in a few GPP lineups as he should help you afford some more bats.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jack Flaherty, Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Carpenter is a solid one-off here, and Flaherty has been sharp as well. I’ll be looking at going towards the arms in this one with maybe one or two one-offs, but I’m not stacking either team here.
Stackability:
Oakland Athletics: 2 Stars
St. Louis Cardinals: 2.5 Stars
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers: Ross Stripling vs. Robbie Ray
The Dodgers face off against one of their NL rivals in the Arizona Diamondbacks back in the desert. The D-Backs will be throwing Robbie Ray here, who has a tough matchup against this powerful Dodgers offense. The Dodgers aren’t as good offensively against LHP’s but they still have a respectable ISO of .192 but they only strikeout at a 21.5% rate to LHP’s which limits Ray’s ceiling, as he gets the majority of his FPs via the strikeout. However, Ray vs. the Dodgers seems to be a thing, (7-4 with a 2.89 ERA and averages 12.19 K/9 against them!) he’s a solid low-owned GPP play here. Stripling is on the hill for the Dodgers, he’s a decent SP2 option here, as he has made some good spot starts in the past, and the Diamondbacks aren’t as good offensively vs. RHP’s. If he can go 5-6 with a few K’s he can easily pay off his salary.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Still hit lefties well, but not as well as they hit RHPs. Still you can stack Turner, Taylor, and Kike who all crush lefties.
ARZ 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Robbie Ray
GPP Note: I’m liking not stacking against Stripling, as he is usually pretty solid in his spot starts. I do like Marte and Escobar as one-offs though, especially if the roof is open.
Stackability:
Los Angeles Dodgers: 3.5 Stars
Arizona Diamondbacks: 3 Stars
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential, to games that could have significant winds that will play a roll in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Colorado Rockies (+157) @ San Francisco Giants (-171)
Starting Pitchers: Chi Chi Gonzalez vs. Madison Bumgarner
The Rockies hit really well against LHP’s, but Bumgarner gets a solid matchup as the Rockies are not as strong offensively on the road as they are at home (.224 ISO vs. LHP’s at home vs. .170 ISO vs LHP’s on the road). This was evident after watching them get shut down by Drew Pomeranz last night. However, I’ll have shares of Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story (if he is back in the lineup) as both of them crush LHP’s and Story adds in SB potential. Bumgarner isn’t K’ing people like he used to (8.66 K/9 this year), but the Rockies are striking out at a 25% rate to LHP’s which boosts his ceiling a bit. Chi Chi Gonzalez is returning to the majors for the first time in 3 years and gets a decent matchup vs. the Giants who have struggled offensively all year long. If we get word that he’ll be extended out a bit he makes for an interesting SP2 punt play on DK.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon, David Dahl
GPP Note: Some of the Rockies lefties actually hit LHP’s very well (McMahon, Dahl) and will be under owned due to the L/L matchup.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Madison Bumgarner, Joe Panik, Alex Dickerson, Pablo Sandoval, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: I do have some interest in the Giants offense here, as they have picked it up a bit as of late and Gonzalez hasn’t pitched in the majors in 3 years. They should be a low owned stack that has some decent upside in this one.
Stackability:
Colorado Rockies: 2.5 Stars
San Francisco Giants: 3 Stars
Cincinnati Reds (+140) @ Los Angeles Angels (-165)
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Mahle vs. Andrew Heaney
The Reds and Angels face off here, the Reds have been swinging hot bats over the past few weeks, but Heaney has good enough stuff that he can quiet those bats. He hasn’t been too sharp so far this year, but he’s had some big games last year out of nowhere, and this is a good spot where he can get you a QS and a W with some K upside. I like the Angels bats here as Mahle likes to give up home runs at a high rate of about 1.5 per 9 innings. Trout is always and elite play, and he’s been heating up over the past few weeks. His ceiling of power and SB’s is unmatched. He could break the slate here.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Derek Dietrich, Eugenio Suarez, Yasiel Puig
GPP Note: The Reds have been really swinging it well lately, and get Heaney who hasn’t been that great to start the year so far. I like the idea of stacking some of their lefties here.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, Tommy La Stella, Shohei Ohtani, Andrew Heaney
GPP Note: The Angels bats get a good matchup here, and Mahle is giving up HRs at a rate of about 1.5 per 9 innings. The Angels also don’t strikeout as evidenced by their 15% K rate.
Stackability:
Cincinnati Reds: 3 Stars
Los Angeles Angels: 4 Stars
Make sure to check out the Coaches Notes/Players Picks as they will have this game covered for you in all areas. The pricing is so much different from the main slate that it can be tough to breakdown from a DFS standpoint. With that said, at first glance, I would be attacking the Cardinals offense and hoping to jump on them while the field views them as terrible plays after they haven’t scored many runs over the past week or so.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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