Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. I normally give a quick glimpse of the top three pitchers in this report, but I’m going to leave that for VIP members for this slate, instead, I’ll break down some guys in interesting spots.
- Mike Soroka – Soroka gets a matchup with the Detroit Tigers here tonight and the Tigers are not a team that I really fear from an offensive perspective. Soroka continues to pitch well, he has for at least 21 Draftkings points in five of his last seven games. The Tigers strike out at a 26.2% rate this season which is one of the tops in the league. I’ll have a good amount of interest in Soroka here.
- Jacob deGrom – The price tag on deGrom is very intriguing here, it’s not often that you’ll see him under $10k on Draftkings. He is one of the best pitchers in the league but seems to be a bit off as of late. On the season, he does average five more Draftkings points per game on the road than at home so he has that going for him, to say the least. As I’m writing this, Zach Wheeler is cruising through the Dbacks order with seven strikeouts. I’m willing to take a chance on deGrom at this price in hopes that we get the upside that we all know he has.
- Jon Gray – Gray is one of my favorite GPP pitchers tonight. We saw Marquez pitch well against this Blue Jays team last night and I think Gray can do the same. The Jays really struggle with the slider and Gray throws a slider around 30% of the time and gets a 20% swinging strike rate on that particular pitch. People will see that he’s in Coors and immediately avoid him, but I think he offers a good deal of upside here.
Full Count Breakdown:
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
Kyle Gibson is priced way up here and I like the Rays offense more than most people. With that said, I do believe Gibson has turned a corner, so I won’t necessarily target either side of that equation. Yonny Chirinos will be the pitcher for the Rays, and although I like his stuff, the Twins have one of the more potent offenses in the league.
MIN
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: One-offs
TBR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: One-offs
Cleveland Indians (-210) @ Chicago White Sox (+175)
The Indians are big favorites in this game which came at a bit of a surprise to me given the fact that they’ll have Jefry Rodriguez on the mound. He has given up 10 ER over 8.2 innings pitched in his last two games, I don’t hate an off the board White Sox stack here. I stacked the Indians up last night along with the Rockies and I may go back to the well here. Ivan Nova is #NotGood, he gives up a lot of hits and walks, but often times manages to get out of big jams, I like the Indians.
CLE
5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Jason Kipnis
GPP Note: The Indians are viable tonight top to bottom
CHW
5-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Yonder Alonso
GPP Note: Large field GPP stack
San Fransisco Giants (+110) @ Baltimore Orioles (-130)
The Giants will get a great matchup against David Hess and the brutal Baltimore bullpen to follow, I normally don’t love to stack them, but I think you can make a case for them here. Baltimore strikes out at a rate of 26.3% on the season, so I really don’t hate Shaun Anderson as an SP2 here, but won’t go crazy with him.
SFG
5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Similar to the White Sox, like them a lot for GPP
BAL
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jonathon Villar, Renato Nunez, Keon Broxton
GPP Note: Mini-stacks and one-offs
Milwaukee Brewers (-115) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-105)
I’ll have some interest in Brandon Woodruff here, he is coming off of a career game against the Phillies where he was one pitch away from a perfect eight innings of baseball to go along with ten strikeouts. I like targeting pitchers in this ballpark and think he goes overlooked. Nick Kingham has pitched 12.1 innings over his last game and has given up 16 earned runs, I’ll have a lot of interest in the Brewers offense here.
MIL
5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Ryan Braun, Keston Hiura, Lorenzo Cain
GPP Note: I normally like the Brewers especially against bad pitching
PIT
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: I like Woodruff too much to like the Pirates here
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Kansas City Royals (-125) @ Texas Rangers (+105)
Lance Lynn’s price here seems pretty egregious, but he has pitched very well as of late. He has struck out 21 batters in his last two games and will get overlooked at his price tag. I don’t mind using Lynn here in GPPs. I also don’t love stacking against Homer Bailey mostly due to the fact that people see his name and immediately gravitate to the opposing offense. He’s not as bad as most people think. The Rangers have some nice plays here, but given the price and potential ownership, not my favorite offense.
KCR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: One-offs
TEX
5-star plays: Joey Gallo, Shin-soo Choo, Hunter Pence
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: They’re in a nice spot don’t get me wrong, but at their prices, I think we can be picky
Washington Nationals (+113) @ Cincinnati Reds (-122)
Tanner Roark is another guy that seems priced up and I’m not going to trust it here. Cincinnati is a hitters paradise and the Nationals offense has some firepower in. I also don’t have much interest in Erick Fedde, but I don’t love the Reds either. They have nice plays, but I don’t know that I want to fully stack them.
WAS
5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Matt Adams, Adam Eaton
GPP Note: I’ll have a good amount of interest in the Nats here, they have an implied run total of 4.8 runs
CIN
5-star plays: Derek Dietrich, Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Nick Senzel, Joey Votto
GPP Note: I like the Nats more even with the higher implied total of the Reds
Detroit Tigers (+215) @ Atlanta Braves (-235)
The Braves are big favorites here at home with Mike Soroka on the mound. I wrote about Soroka earlier and I have a good deal of interest in him here. The Braves have an implied run total of nearly six runs against Daniel Norris here, it’s hard not to like them against a lefty.
DET
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like Mike Soroka
ATL
5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Austin Riley
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Hard not to like the Braves here
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
I like Domingo German as a pitcher, but he doesn’t like to prove me right on that proposition. With a matchup against the Red Sox, I won’t have any interest in him here. Rick Porcello has some pretty aggressive home/road splits on the season, so I think both of these offenses are usable here.
BOS
5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Michael Chavis
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Small ballpark and a great offense, I like them here
NYY
5-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, Kendrys Morales (Savings)
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: I like the Red Sox more, but the Yankees are usable if you can find the money
Los Angeles Angels (-110) @ Seattle Mariners (+101)
Tommy Milone’s first two starts of the season might surprise most people (including me). He has gone for at least 16.9 Draftkings points in both of them and the Angels offense really isn’t one that scares me after you get passed Shohei Ohtani. I like Milone here as a cheap SP2 option. Andrew Heaney pitched well in his first game this season, but I like the talent of the Mariners offense and he’s priced at an awkward price.
LAA
5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: One-offs
SEA
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Domingo Santana, Edwin Encarnacion
GPP Note: One-offs
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Chicago Cubs (+125) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-135)
Jack Flaherty feels really underpriced here and I like him a lot especially on Draftkings. The Cubs aren’t the worst options, but only have an implied total of four runs. I like the Cardinals quite a bit more but won’t crack my top three stacks.
CHC
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: I love Flaherty on the other side at his price tag
STL
5-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Large field GPP stack
Toronto Blue Jays (+132) @ Colorado Rockies (-143)
I wrote up the Rockies as the best stack of the slate last night which should not have come as any surprise as they went and scored 13 runs. I like the spot slightly less tonight, but sinkers go to die in Coors and that’s exactly what Marcus Stroman throws, they again make the top stacks list. I touched on Jon Gray earlier and I’m more likely to use him than the Jays offense.
TOR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: I like Gray more than the Jays offense
COL
5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Raimel Tapia, Ian Desmond
4-star plays: David Dahl, Daniel Murphy
GPP Note: If you have the money, play them
Houston Astros (-156) @ Oakland Athletics (+144)
Justin Verlander is the highest priced pitcher on the slate and it’s hard not to like him given the park upgrade. The A’s have an implied run total of less than four, so no interest for me. This will likely be a bullpen game for the A’s, but the Astros lineup isn’t healthy right now, I’ll wait for them to get back to full strength before fully stacking them.
HOU
5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Josh Reddick
GPP Note: Mini-stack
OAK
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No reason to play them against Verlander
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
Neither of these pitchers is great, but you can consider them given the pitcher’s park and the incompetence of these offenses. No interest in these bats.
MIA
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: This is close to a stay away game outside of cheap SP2’s for me
SDP
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Ditto to the Marlins GPP Note
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Philadelphia Phillies (+180) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-197)
Clayton Kershaw feels like he’s priced right for the matchup. I want to like him here, but the Phillies offense is a good one, so I’ll leave him for GPPs. Cole Irvin, on the other hand, is in for some trouble against the Dodgers offense. They are one of my favorite stacks on the slate right next to the Rockies.
PHI
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: One-offs
LAD
5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Love the Dodgers here
New York Mets (-105) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-103)
I touched on Jacob deGrom earlier and think he is certainly worth a play at his price point. Zack Greinke is also playable here, this game is strictly pitching for me, no real interest in bats.
NYM
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I have respect for Zack Greinke’s stuff
ARI
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: I like deGrom more than this offense
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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