VIP Only - Box Checking for MLB Pitchers! - A Strategy from Morphiend88

Hello fellow Army members. My name is Chris Carter (morphiend88 in slack) and I’ve had several people ask me about my “pitching sheet” that has led to my recent success this MLB season. With so many asking for advice on how to use it, I thought it would be easier to write a guide to show you all what I’ve been doing. Before I get started, I want to inform you that all the credit for this process goes to Keith (BoomersDaddy) as he was the one who dropped this tidbit in slack one morning and I just happened to grab the screenshots. I created a template to use to make it easier to navigate daily, and it has led to some nice wins so far. Let’s dive in:

Your Template…

Above, is what the template looks like. I have two sections on my sheet, one for good pitchers and one for bad pitchers. Depending on slate size (I do top 4 when it’s 5 games or less, top 6 when there are 6 or more), I will pull the players who are tops in the following categories: xwOBA, xwOBA vR, xwOBA vL, K Score, Proj LU xwOBA, and Proj LU K% (if you don’t know these stats, that’s ok…. fangraphs.com has some defined, and you can always as a coach to explain them, too). Every one of these stats can be found on the Starting Lineups page on the Starting Pitcher Hub except for K Score (use the RS for this). At the bottom

of the Starting Lineups page you should see this:

We are going to sort the ones boxed in yellow and use our template from earlier to note who the best pitchers in these categories are. Each of these columns will be sorted from smallest to largest EXCEPT for Proj LU K% as it goes from largest to smallest. We then start filling in our template with names from each category. A lot of times pitchers will tick more than one category, so we just add his rank to the sheet in the appropriate column. If a pitcher shows up for the first time on the third stat, just add his name to the list and give him his rank. This is what the initial looks like from today’s (May 10th) slate:

Keep in mind, I have yet to see the first four columns change. However, the last two columns WILL change based on who is in the actual lineups that get released. It could make a difference in which pitchers we want to target, especially on FD where strikeouts are king. If using this method, make sure to run it again prior to lock after as many lineups are in as possible. On a large slate with west coast games, you may not always get all the lineups in, but you should still be able to get a general idea of who is who for the last two columns.

Editor’s Note – This is what I personally love so much about DFS Army. We have members helping, coaches helping, and people generally of the mindset of giving more than they take. We want to continue encouraging this behavior, obviously, because even our coaches are always learning and evolving. Sharing improves everyone’s games! Thank you, Morphiend88 for a great piece people have been asking to see broken down. Please tag him in our coaching rooms and thank him for a wonderful contribution.

Box Checking MLB Pitchers…

Now that we have the chart filled in, we want to see who ticks off the most categories. In the example above, E-Rod ticks 5 categories, followed by Glasnow, Castillo, and Odorizzi all with 4. This is where I would want to start looking for who I want to put in my lines. Some of these guys are going to be expensive (good pitchers cost more, say it ain’t so), but some will be cheaper. My rule of thumb is if a guy makes the chart on the good side, he’s in play. I can be talked into a 1 category pitcher IF a coach feels extremely highly about him in his matchup. I also pay close attention to guys projected to strikeout a lot of batters. My thought process for the chart above would be to take the 4/5 category guys and then add Lopez and Marquez due to the strikeout potential they have for a total of 6 pitchers. With 28 pitchers on the slate, 6 is more than enough for me to be content. With their salaries being 10700, 10500, 9100, 8600, 7900, and 7200, that gives me a good starting point to get any bats I want tonight spread across 150 lines (if MMEing), or running mini ladders.

Now that we know who we want to throw, we need to figure out who we want to hit against. We are going to use the same columns we did before in reverse order.

We want to take bats against the guys who tick the most categories as they should be in the better hitting spots on the night. Based on the example above, I can see I want exposure to the Angels and the Twins first and foremost. Others in good spots look to be Oakland, Boston, Toronto, and Pittsburgh. If MMEing, I would set these teams up in the DS as randomized stacks at about 150-170% leaving room for DS to throw in some other stacks or one offs we may want to use. If running ladders, I would stack a 4-3-1 from just the teams listed above, unless the coaches are really, really high on a value play or someone has amazing BVP against a pitcher.

For more in-depth strategy regarding MLB DFS Strategy, simply follow this link to our strategy page. Dig back a few pages, take your time, and explore some of our timeless content that doesn’t go out of style… MLB Strategy Page

Please keep in mind when using this that running it at 10 am is much different than running it at 530 pm when lineups are starting to come in. Sometimes teams stack up RvL, LvR, or strong BvP guys. Sometimes they sit Mike Trout or Mookie Betts for rest and that can have a negative impact on the expected team totals. The key is knowing who is going to be in the lineups and getting the most out of our sheet by keeping it as updated as possible. When lock is at 7, lineups start rolling in around 1-2 o’clock sometimes. It can be hard when lock is at 7 but games also play at 10, but we can still be as prepared as possible. Using this method on smaller slates will give you plenty of time to know who is in each lineup and who you want to target with bats.

Does this always win? No. Simply put the variance in MLB is too high to win every day. Since I have started using it, I have profited more days than not. I have won both MMEing and running ladders with this method. You are free to use the method and the sheet, and again, thank BoomersDaddy when you start collecting your money.

Good luck guys,
Morphiend88

Your Template…

Box Checking MLB Pitchers…

For more in-depth strategy regarding MLB DFS Strategy, simply follow this link to our strategy page. Dig back a few pages, take your time, and explore some of our timeless content that doesn’t go out of style… MLB Strategy Page

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