Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count!! You have to start your research somewhere and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @DFSnDONUTS and you can find me on YouTube | Twitch | iTunes with supplemental commentary and teaching. You’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
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MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process
Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses
When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators. Look at all that green circled! These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble). To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.
How To Find MLB Hitters – Trending wOBA
Here is a page in DFS Army’s Research Station from which you can build entire lineups. I prefer to use the trending wOBA and more specifically, the last seven games (L7) column. I’m a huge believer in MLB hot streaks and I will ride them off and on all year. People will shout that a guy is heating up or cooling off, but I prefer to watch this column over listening to the voices. I won’t miss a guy by more than about three days. If he gets hot, I’ll see it soon enough and jump on board. I’ll get off a formerly hot player faster than most now, too. Remember, pricing trails production in DFS and it goes up much faster than it comes down. When a guy is running hot he’s usually under priced. When he cools off he stays overpriced for a long time. Use this tab to help you figure that out and ask me inside our coaching channels as a VIP. This is my foundation building block for the next six months and it only takes a week to populate.
Filtered yesterday to show your DraftKings guys <3500 in salary with at least 10 plate appearances on the year. We are going to need value today, and our Research Station allows you to find it in mere seconds once you have access to the tool and know how to manipulate it a little.
CWS (+191) @ CLE (-209)
Carlos Carrasco takes the mound as a heavy favorite against a decent young left-handed pitcher in Manny Banuelos. Carrasco has strong upside in this one but the White Sox have upside with Moncada and Abreu in the lineup as well. We are going to want some exposure to Carrasco and I plan on attacking Manny with Cleveland right-handed hitters due to their 5.4 IRT.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Manny Banuelos (large field GPP/MME), Abreu, Moncada
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Carlos Carrasco, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
4 Star Plays – Carlos Santana
GPP note – Certainly in play with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to right-field and a high IRT.
LAA @ DET
We don’t have a Vegas line yet because there is not clarity on who is taking the mound for the Angels as of 8:00 AM EST. Ryan Carpenter is pitching for the Tigers for the first time this season. He had a few spot starts in 2018 without much success. LAA don’t strike out a ton too so the only reason why Carpenter should make your lineup is if you’re trotting out 150 lineups or trying to be incredibly contrarian. MME only for me.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Mike Trout
4 Star Plays – David Fletcher, Andrelton Simmons
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – Until we know who is taking the mound I am only suggesting to use our optimizer randomized stack exposure with the Tigers. Without knowing splits matchups or pitch arsenal of LAA’s pitcher, I don’t want to mislead you.
MIA (+185) @ CHC (-202)
We have a much nicer day at Wrigley with the weather in the 60’s and the wind blowing out to right-field at 15 MPH. Yu Darvish is in play and so is Trevor Richards for large field GPP’s. I have more interest in the pitchers in the next game but for MME purposes, these two also make my pool.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Trevor Richards
GPP note – randomize stack exposure in play for MME. No batter in this lineup really has the one-off upside I want to target.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Yu Darvish, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo
GPP note – Cubs randomized stack function likely the best approach here.
SFG (+139) @ COL (-151)
The Rockies have a slate high 5.9 implied run total and they have Kyle Freeland on the mound at a very cheap price point. The Giants have Derek Holland on the mound and he’s even cheaper. Holland isn’t a very good pitcher BUT he is not bad either. Freeland has had major success at home over the last two years but has not looked sharp this season. He’s actually had 3 huge scores and 4 stinkers where he ruins your lineup. He’s much more volatile this year.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Buster Posey (DK),
4 Star Plays – Evan Longoria, Mac Williamson, Brandon Belt, Tyler Austin, Kevin Pillar
GPP note – I think the Rockies end up garnering way more ownership making the Giants at cheaper price points more valuable in my opinion. Randomized stack exposure against a pitcher who has given up 5 or more ER in 3 different starts is the way to go.
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
4 Star Plays – Charlie Blackmon
GPP note – I honestly prefer to target Story and Arenado in a 2-man mini stack for small field GPPs or Single Entry lineups. This lineup might have 7 lefties in the lineup today (including Freeland).
CIN (+135) @ OAK (-146)
Chris Bassitt has held opposing hitters to a 34% hard hit rate and a 90 MPH exit velocity. He’s a favorite today and has looked very sharp this season. He has upside here against a volatile Reds lineup full of right-handed hitters.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Eugenio Suarez and Nick Senzel are in play as one-off’s
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Matt Chapman, Jurickson Profar
4 Star Plays – Chris Bassitt, Marcus Semien, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Olson
GPP note – I really like the Athletics today for the early slate and think they’re going to be way lower owned than the Indians, Rockies, Giants, and potentially the Cubbies.
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SEA (+145) @ NYY (-157)
The Yankees have a 5.4 implied run total and will be popular on the main slate. I am not only a Yankees fan but I will be all over them in MME tonight as well for my loyal “MME Playbook” followers. Leake has allowed an astonishing 53% hard hit rate over his last two starts and he’s given up 6 HRs in the last 17 IP and 11 HRs in the last 28 IP…YIKES!!!
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Mitch Haniger, Tim Beckham
4 Star Plays – Domingo Santana, Ryon Healy
GPP note – Happ has not looked sharp this season the I think he might end up being popular on this slate due to the IRT and money line. However, I love the idea of stacking against a chalky pitcher who’s volatile. Good time to make some money!
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – The entire lineup
GPP note – The game stack is viable and there is so much upside here. I am not kidding when I say I like any bat the Yankees put in there today. Leake has given up more HRs than any pitcher in Major League Baseball this season and the Yankees can crush the ball. I am going to use the randomized stack function on the Yankees using our DFS Army optimizer and have a high exposure.
PIT (+127) @ STL (-137)
While the Cardinals have a 4.6 IRT and the Pirates have just a 4.0 IRT, I think both pitchers are in play for GPPs. The Cardinals, however, are a nice team to stack in MME due to the upside. Meanwhile, I don’t like to stack the Pirates unless it’s the best of situations, instead I prefer to roll out one-offs with Gregory Polanco and Josh Bell.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez
GPP note – The problem with the Cardinals is they’re getting quite expensive. They are so volatile, too. I really only prefer to target them with the randomized stack feature.
TEX (+141) @ HOU (-153)
This is a very interesting spot to target today and the decision could make or break the slate. We have an elite arm (this season) in Mike Minor facing an elite offense in the Astros. Minor has scored 29.55, 40.25, 40.75, and 30.60 in four of his last six starts. The 29.55 score was actually against the Astro and he scored 26.50 against them in his last matchup with them in 2018, too. He has pitched 6 or more innings in his last six starts and has racked up 45 Ks in the last 44 IP.
Wade Miley has given up a HR in 4 straight games and in 5 out of 7 starts, however, he has not given up more than 3 ER in all 7 contests this season. He really does a good job limiting damage.
What to do?
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Mike Minor
4 Star Plays – Elvis Andrus, Hunter Pence
GPP note – I want a small percentage exposure to the Rangers offense in the randomized stack function. Also, I likely will use the like/love/adore button to increase projection and value of both Andrus and Pence.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman
GPP note – I want to match whatever Minor exposure I end up with in Houston Astros stack percentage. One side will win this battle and likely do so in a big way. I am leaning towards Minor getting the better of them again.
You see above you a unique to DFS Army members metric combining hard contact with BABIP to measure which players are hitting the ball hard but not seeing the typical results. The gamble here is normalization of their numbers and a pending hot streak. MLB is about avoiding zeroes and this is a list capable of producing great cores and one-offs alike.
ATL (-106) @ ARI (-102)
This is pretty much a pick em’, as both teams have a 4.3 IRT. Both Mike Soroka and Luke Weaver are absolutely in play in large and small field GPPs. Soroka has been a favorite on mine in the MME Playbook for the last four starts of his – aligning perfectly with his excellent streak of great games (16.45, 23.95, 28.50, and 28.15 DK points). Enjoy the heater while I am on it because sooner or later I will regress, haha! Soroka is once again my favorite pitcher on the entire slate.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Mike Soroka
4 Star Plays – Freddie Freeman as a one-off.
GPP note – The Braves should receive a small stack exposure at whatever our projected ownership level of Weaver is going to be. We need to leverage his ownership because Weaver has been excellent over the last 5 games and will garner a fair amount due to his lower price point, too.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Luke Weaver, David Peralta as a one-off.
GPP note – Not stacking.
WAS (+132) @ LAD (-143)
We have two very good pitchers on the mound. I really like Rich Hill (L) for the Dodgers against the Nationals who are very hot and cold. The Nats can throw 7 right-handed hitters are him tonight which potentially lowers my exposure to him but he’s in a very good spot.
The Dodgers face Corbin who has lost a bit of control over the last two starts, putting 19 men on base in just 11 IP and giving up 9 ERs. He also needed 210 pitches to get through those innings. They also have the hottest hitter in all of baseball, Justin Turner.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Patrick Corbin
GPP note – I am not on either team really for stacks beyond a small percentage.
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Justin Turner
4 Star Plays – Rich Hill
GPP note – I am not on either team really for stacks beyond a small percentage.
Starting Lineups for every game that are complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades. You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up. Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed and profitable day!
Donuts
