Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count!! You have to start your research somewhere and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @DFSnDONUTS and you can find me on YouTube | Twitch | iTunes with supplemental commentary and teaching. You’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process
Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses
When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators. Look at all that green circled! These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble). To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.
How To Find MLB Hitters – Trending wOBA
Here is a page in DFS Army’s Research Station from which you can build entire lineups. I prefer to use the trending wOBA and more specifically, the last seven games (L7) column. I’m a huge believer in MLB hot streaks and I will ride them off and on all year. People will shout that a guy is heating up or cooling off, but I prefer to watch this column over listening to the voices. I won’t miss a guy by more than about three days. If he gets hot, I’ll see it soon enough and jump on board. I’ll get off a formerly hot player faster than most now, too. Remember, pricing trails production in DFS and it goes up much faster than it comes down. When a guy is running hot he’s usually under priced. When he cools off he stays overpriced for a long time. Use this tab to help you figure that out and ask me inside our coaching channels as a VIP. This is my foundation building block for the next six months and it only takes a week to populate.
Filtered yesterday to show your DraftKings guys <3500 in salary with at least 10 plate appearances on the year. We are going to need value today, and our Research Station allows you to find it in mere seconds once you have access to the tool and know how to manipulate it a little.
OAK (+126) @ BOS (-137)
The Red Sox are my favorite offense in the early slate as they have a 5.2 IRT and I think the Athletics are in a good spot as well. Hector Velasquez is just a warm body on the mound and the Athletics are likely going to be lower owned than the Boston hitters who have a sweet matchup against Mike Fiers.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Khris Davis
4 Star Plays – Marcus Semien, Robbie Grossman
GPP note – I like the game stack here for the early slate.
Home Team
5 Star Plays – J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Andrew benintendi, Michael Chavis
4 Star Plays – Mitch Moreland, Jackie Bradley, Rafael Devers
GPP note – If you are rolling out a heavy MME approach for the early slate, I think some of these surging Boston bats will win the slate.
TAM @ KC
There is no Vegas line for this game yet but I would imagine we’ll see Ryne Stanek on the mound for an inning or two and giving way to a bullpen game. I don’t like the Royals that much because the Rays “pen” games are pitched well. The Rays have some hitters I am interested in and would imagine their IRT will be in the upper 4.7-4.8 range when it’s open.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Brandon Lowe
4 Star Plays – Tommy Pham, Yandy Diaz, Kevin kiermaier,
GPP note – Our randomized stack function for this team is likely the best approach due to no single hitter having a monster ceiling and the team relying on the others to have a big day together.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier
GPP note –
PIT (-135) @ TEX (+124)
The Pirates are implied to score 5.8 runs against Shelby Miller. We just watched the Rangers and Pirates fizzle out in a game everyone thought would be high scoring. The Pirates are likely going to be heavily owned.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco
4 Star Plays – Adam Frazier, Colin Moran, Bryan Reynolds, Melky Cabrera
GPP note – I still prefer to go heavier on the Red Sox due to their team hitting well and just being better overall players than the Pirates in a good matchup. I think the Pirates pricing and matchup will make them higher owned which gives us a nice edge by using Boston instead.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo
GPP note – A healthy 4.9 IRT and I like the lefties as one-offs.
NYY (-113) @ ARI (+104)
Mostly a stay away game where I don’t want to target pitchers or hitters here for the afternoon slate. I am recommending a full fade here.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – David Peralta as a one-off if you must.
GPP note –
BAL (+162) @ CWS (-176)
This is where I am attacking the afternoon slate. I want heavy exposure to Carlos Rodon against the Orioles and I want the White Sox offense as my highest owned stack. I would trot out 100% White Sox stacks for the afternoon slate in 4 man stacks on FanDuel and 5 man stacks on DraftKings.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Carlos Rodon, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
4 Star Plays – Yonder Alonso, Nicky Delmonico
GPP note –
Here at DFS Army, we win……and we win a lot. From smaller budgets and cash games to bigger whales swinging for the 6-figure fences, we’ve guided every type and every experience level for going on 4 seasons now. Our members rave about the responsiveness and interaction between coaches and players and we actually form friendships that span sports. There is no community more invested in your success, nor a community that takes greater pride in your wins and sweats as we watch and root for you into the wee hours of mornings. Don’t believe me? See our Wall of Wins and just scroll through page after page and sport after sport.
CHC (-110) @ SEA (+101)
I like Marco Gonzales in this spot at home as the underdog. He’s pitched well and the Cubbies could be slightly popular here, too.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Mitch Haniger
4 Star Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Tim Beckham, Domingo Santana
GPP note – I like the Seattle RHH in this game as lower owned stacks.
DET (+195) @ PHI (-213)
Aaron Nola is in a fantastic spot against a Tigers team that can’t touch RHP. Tigers are implied to score just 3.0 runs.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Aaron Nola
4 Star Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen
GPP note – I like the Phillies righties in this one but there are better spots for the main slate.
STL (+139) @ WAS (-151)
Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Nats and the Cardinals have a 3.6 IRT while the Nats have a 4.5 IRT against RHP Miles Mikolas. I think the Nats lefties are in a great spot today and I think their IRT might end up around 5.0.
Scherzer has struck out 19 batters in his last 12.1 IP and held the Padres to just 2 ER last game. It seems like he might be rounding into form and a massive outing could happen against the Cardinals lineup that is loaded with RHH.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Matt Adams, Juan Soto, Adam Eaton
4 Star Plays – Max Scherzer, Howie Kendrick, Victor Robles, Brian Dozier
GPP note – I prefer the Nats lefties if creating a single entry lineup.
CLE (-131) @ MIA (+121)
Caleb Smith keeps plugging along and has held opposing hitters to a 29% hard hit rate and he has a 73% strike ratio in his last 3 starts. He has 6 or more strikeouts in all 5 starts this season while allowing just 24 men on base in 29 innings. He’s the best pitcher on the slate today based on current statistics and analytics for the season and yet he won’t be a top-3 owned pitcher. He’s my ace tonight in all formats and my MME file will be heavy on him.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Corey Kluber
GPP note – Full fade outside of using Kluber
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Caleb Smith
4 Star Plays – Starlin Castro, Curtis Granderson
GPP note – The Marlins are pesky and Kluber has not been sharp. One-offs or potentially small 3 man stacks are in play.
You see above you a unique to DFS Army members metric combining hard contact with BABIP to measure which players are hitting the ball hard but not seeing the typical results. The gamble here is normalization of their numbers and a pending hot streak. MLB is about avoiding zeroes and this is a list capable of producing great cores and one-offs alike.
CIN (+165) @ NYM (-179)
Jacob deGrom has held opposing hitters to a 20% hard hit rate and an 84 MPH exit velocity in his last two starts. Yet, Jacob has walked 7 batters and allowed 8 ERs in his last 9 IP in those games. For as long as he is lacking control I will continue to target him with opposing offenses and fade him.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Anthony Desclafani, Jose Peraza, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Jose Iglesias
GPP note – They are a super cheap hitting stack to leverage any deGrom ownership the field has. Pair them with a high profile team stack like the Braves.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note –
SDP (+139) @ ATL (-151)
This is an interesting spot that I will actually have a fair amount of both sides. Rookie, Cal Quantrill is getting his first taste of MLB action for the Padres today. He is not a highly touted prospect in their organization but he’s pitched very well this season and has solid strikeout potential. However, he faces a Braves team with some dangerous hitters at the top of the order. I want to invest in both sides in MME.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Franmil Reyes, Manny Machado
4 Star Plays – Wil Myers, Ian Kinsler, Manny Margot, Cal Quantrill
GPP note – Max Fried has a lot of potential but is a volatile arm. I have no problem targeting the RHH in the Padres lineup, especially Myers, Reyes, and Machado.
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Freddie Freeman
4 Star Plays – Ozzie Albies, Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna Jr. Brian McCann
GPP note – I love the Braves hitters BUT I am intrigued by Cal. I’ll match whatever exposure I have of him with opposing stacks.
COL (+123) @ MIL (-133)
Chase Anderson is not a very good pitcher but the Rockies are on the road and their bats are volatile this season. I think the upside is there due to the cheaper pricing in the Rockies bats but expect the outcome to be volatile.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Charlie Blackmon
4 Star Plays – David Dahl, Daniel Murphy, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
GPP note – a game stack is absolutely in play here
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Eric Thamse, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain
GPP note – I think Senzatela is in trouble here against a loaded left-handed hitting team. I like the Brew Crew in a big way today.
HOU (-139) @ MIN (+128)
The Houston bats are surging and Martin Perez is likely in trouble here. I expect the 4.9 IRT of the Astros to climb throughout the day. Perez has looked great in his last two starts but those were against the Blue Jays and Orioles. In fact, he had allowed 15 men on base in his first 11.2 IP this season and given up 7 ER in those games when not facing those two weak teams. Astros for the win today.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley
4 Star Plays – Jake Marsinick/Tony Kemp, Carlos Correa Jose Altuve
GPP note – They will be my heaviest owned stack of the day for MME.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Marwin Gonzalez, Jason Castro, Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron
GPP note – Opposing RHP, Collin McHugh has given up 5 HR and 12 ER in his last 9 IP. The Twins have some bombers this season and are absolutely in play. This is a good game stack spot as well. I think their 4.2 IRT is way too low and I would imagine they climb close to 4.5 or a bit more.
LAD (-139) @ SFG (+129)
The Dodgers bats woke up last night and face Bumgarner who has given up 9 ER and 17 hits in his last 11.2 IP. He has actually given up 4 or more ER in 4 of the last 5 starts and the Dodgers just ruined the Giants bullpen last night. Love them today even at just 3.8 runs implied. I think they blow past that and will be low owned due to their low IRT.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy
4 Star Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Hyun-Jin Ryu (90 + pitches last two starts)
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note –
TOR (+104) @ LAA (-113)
Marcus Stroman is pitching well and keeping the ball on the ground. The Angels stack is cheap but I think their upside is limited and the probability of an explosion here is low. Felix Pena is pitching a bit above his head right now and although the Blue Jays are not a good stack I think they’re in play here.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rowdy Tellez, Randal Grichuk, Eric Sogard, Marcus Stroman (R)
GPP note – Keep this stack to a very low exposure for MME. The upside is there but the team is just not good and probability of reaching potential is low (something I teach about in our member chat often).
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Mike Trout as a one-off but fading this team.
GPP note –
Starting Lineups for every game that are complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades. You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up. Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today.
Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…
Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs. However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you. Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition. There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!
GPP Sleeper stack will be saved for members!!
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed and profitable day!
