Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count!! You have to start your research somewhere and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @DFSnDONUTS and you can find me on YouTube | Twitch | iTunes with supplemental commentary and teaching. You’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process
Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses
When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators. Look at all that green circled! These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble). To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.
How To Find MLB Hitters – Trending wOBA
Here is a page in DFS Army’s Research Station from which you can build entire lineups. I prefer to use the trending wOBA and more specifically, the last seven games (L7) column. I’m a huge believer in MLB hot streaks and I will ride them off and on all year. People will shout that a guy is heating up or cooling off, but I prefer to watch this column over listening to the voices. I won’t miss a guy by more than about three days. If he gets hot, I’ll see it soon enough and jump on board. I’ll get off a formerly hot player faster than most now, too. Remember, pricing trails production in DFS and it goes up much faster than it comes down. When a guy is running hot he’s usually under priced. When he cools off he stays overpriced for a long time. Use this tab to help you figure that out and ask me inside our coaching channels as a VIP. This is my foundation building block for the next six months and it only takes a week to populate.
Filtered yesterday to show your DraftKings guys <3500 in salary with at least 10 plate appearances on the year. We are going to need value today, and our Research Station allows you to find it in mere seconds once you have access to the tool and know how to manipulate it a little.
TEX (+123) @ PIT (-134)
The Pirates get to tee off against a bottom-3 HR rate pitcher (Shelby Miller) and are implied to score 5.1 runs. I think this might be kind of low and potentially providing the Early Slate with some value due to some discount pricing. Nick Kingham had some success last year, too, and is a decent option as an affordable arm on a four game slate.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Texas lefties
GPP note – I would absolutely be okay with stacking the left-handed bats from Texas (Mazara, Gallo, Odor, Santana, Choo). It makes for a nice game stack to pair with anybody on the Pirates.
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Josh Bell, Starling Marte
4 Star Plays – Gregory Polanco, Jun-ho Kang, Elias Diaz,
GPP note – We have a nice opportunity for a lower owned game stack while the field hops on the Brewers and Cardinals.
WAS (+172) @ MIL (-187)
Brandon Woodruff is a nice option and has pitched quite well this season. He has 32 K’s ini just 27.1 IP and has held opposing teams to 2 runs or less in 3 of his 5 starts. He’s also gone 5.0 or more innings in all five starts. The Brewers offense is in a good spot against Jeremy Hellickson. Over his last 19.2 IP, he’s given up 14 ER and 4 HR. Bombs away!
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Adam Eaton
GPP note – I am on Brandon Woodruff and really see no reason to use Nationals today.
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Brandon Woodruff, Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas
4 Star Plays – Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, Yasmani Grandal (DK especially)
GPP note –
ARI (+143) @ TAM (-155)
Tampa continues to be a boom or bust offense to target and face off against a volatile Robbie Ray. While Ray has cut down on his walks (slightly), he still can unravel if he isn’t striking batters out. That being said, he’s done a good job limiting damage this year and has allowed just 11 ERs in 27.2 IP while striking out 32 hitters.
Charlie Morton is going to be the most popular pitcher on the early slate and I think by rolling with Brandon Woodruff (on one pitcher sites) we have already differentiated ourselves enough to use whatever bats we want. On two pitcher sites, Morton is the easy choice for second pitcher with his 10.8 K/9 rate.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – David Peralta, Robbie Ray
GPP note – If you want to leverage the field against Morton ownership, roll with Escobar, Peralta, Marte as a 3-man stack and pair them with the Brewers chalk bats or Pirates stack!
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Charlie Morton (chalky), Tommy Pham, Mike Zunino (DK especially)
GPP note –
PHI (+144) @ STL (-156)
Jack Flaherty is my favorite large field GPP option. He has massive upside but has the toughest matchup. He has allowed just 30 men on base in 27.1 IP and has struck out 35 hitters thus far. His main issue is giving up the HR, which Philadelphia can rack up in a hurry. Large field GPP ONLY!
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – McCutche, Segura, Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto (DK), Herrera, Hernandez, Franco
GPP note – Yes, the entire team is in play for large field GPPs because of the upside and Flaherty’s propensity to give up the long ball. They’ll likely be lower owned due to the 3.8 IRT, putting them all into play. If MME’ing, I would match exposure to Phillies stacks with Flaherty to hedge a little (maybe 20/20%).
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Jack Flaherty, Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez, Dexter Fowler
GPP note – Game stack viable here.
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NYM (+129) @ SDP (-140)
Wilmer Font won’t pitch long today so keep him out of your lineups. Matthew Strahm is in play for the afternoon slate as the TOP option. While he doesn’t run his pitch count high he is very efficient, tossing 5 or more innings in all 5 starts and allowing just 24 men on base in 30 IP. He rarely gives up HRs (just 2 this season) and has allowed just 6 ER in total.
If Strahm is on the normal Early Slate with the other four games then he’s the top option and a lock for me on whatever site/app you find him available.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – Fade
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Matthew Strahm
4 Star Plays – Eric Hosmer, Ty France
GPP note –
CWS (+171) @ CLE (-187)
Bieberlicious is a good pitcher. He has 31 Ks in 29 IP and has 17 over his last 13.2 IP. He also has thrown over 100 pitches in four out of his five starts and allowed 3 ER or less in all but the start against the Braves.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Reynaldo Lopez (strikeout potential against a volatile offense)
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
GPP note –
SEA (+127) @ NYY (-137)
The Yankees youngsters just keep humming along this season. Today they face off against the newest pitcher for the Mariners, Yusei Kikuchi. He was an international star prior to joining Major League Baseball. We finally saw his potential in his last start when he struck out 10 hitters over 7 IP and allowed just 4 men on base.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Yusei Kikuchi, Dan Vogelbach, Jay bruce, Dee Gordon
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Miguel Andujar, Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres
GPP note – I really like the Yankees stack against a guy that likely will carry massive recency bias during the afternoon slate due to his performance in the prior week.
BOS (-278) @ BAL (+252)
This could get nasty real quick. Chris Sale has had back to back good outings and looks like his old self again while the Orioles bullpen is tired and Andrew Cashner is starting for them…Yikes! He pitches to contact and gives up a lot of HRs and Boston has some very hot bats right now.
If this were the MME playbook, Boston would be a Tier 1 stack.
Away Team
5 Star Plays – J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers, Michael Chavis
4 Star Plays – Jackie Bradley, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi
GPP note – 1-9, stack em’ up and stack em’ high.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – Fade.
MIN (-106) @ TOR (-102)
This is a tough game to figure out. I want exposure to both pitchers in MME but I’ll also want exposure to the Twins lefties.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Kyle Gibson, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Mitch Garver (DK)
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Trent Thornton, Randall Grichuk, Eric Sogard
GPP note –
You see above you a unique to DFS Army members metric combining hard contact with BABIP to measure which players are hitting the ball hard but not seeing the typical results. The gamble here is normalization of their numbers and a pending hot streak. MLB is about avoiding zeroes and this is a list capable of producing great cores and one-offs alike.
LAA (+110) @ DET (-118)
I like both pitchers here for MME and if I had to choose one I roll with Matt Boyd who has looked like a different pitcher this season. Neither offense excites me and I am fading all hitters here outside of a one-off with Mike Trout.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Tyler Skaggs, Mike Trout
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Matt Boyd
4 Star Plays –
GPP note –
KCR (+191) @ HOU (-208)
Brad Peacock is always in play but as a heavy favorite against a pesky/dangerous Royals team and other good pitching options on the slate, I am fading Peacock outside of MME’s. I am hopping back on the Astros offense after they iced lineups on Tuesday. Fade the recency bias!
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Whit Merrifield, Alex Gordon, Hunter Dozier
GPP note –
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, Alex Bregman, George Springer
4 Star Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Robinson Chirinos (DK)
GPP note – Similar to Boston, stack em’ up as a Tier 1 stack.
SFG (+128) @ COL (-139)
Derek Holland is not terrible and Jon Gray is very good. The weather is also going to be 38-40 degrees with rain and wind blowing in. I am suggesting a full fade of everything in this game outside of large field Rockies stacks (minor exposure at best).
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – Fade.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – Fade.
CIN (-101) @ OAK (-107)
Sony Gray is volatile but has had some good moments this season. The Athletics offense is pretty much Sony Gray in hitter form. I think minor exposure to both sides is acceptable for MME but not much. There are better spots to invest tonight.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Sonny Gray
GPP note – Minor MME 10-20% randomized stack exposure in our optimizer.
Home Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays –
GPP note – Minor MME 10-20% randomized stack exposure in our optimizer.
ATL (+176) @ LOS (-192)
Clayton Kershaw is pitching well but not Cy Young level yet. However, he is a 30+ and 60+ threat any night (DK scoring/FD scoring). He has 27 Ks in 26 IP and has allowed just 22 men to reach base.
Away Team
5 Star Plays –
4 Star Plays – Michael Foltynewicz
GPP note – Fade.
Home Team
5 Star Plays – Cody Bellinger (.400 average and 14 HRs 40 games into the season. WILD!!)
4 Star Plays – Clayton Kershaw, Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Alex Verdugo
GPP note – Folty is very good but looks bad. I want exposure to him and against him. If he rounds into form he’s going to be a 3-5% owned pitcher scoring 25/50 (dk/fd scoring) and if he looks bad still then the Dodgers lefties are going to shell him for 10+ runs.
Starting Lineups for every game that are complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades. You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up. Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed and profitable day!
Donuts
