Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for tonight’s main slate, and none of them should really come as a huge surprise given their ability/matchup. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- Domingo German – The only problem with German here is the weather. I think he makes for a great pitching option against the Twins, but there is A LOT of rain in the area. Keep your eyes on the Weather Station before locking in anyone in this game.
- Jeff Samardzija – If I’m being honest, I don’t like Samardzija one bit here. The Reds have an implied total of 4.9 runs at the hitter’s paradise that they call home. He’s not on the main slate today, but there just isn’t much here I like, I’ll look for a different pitcher.
- Erik Swanson – Swanson got blown up last game against the Rangers, but otherwise hasn’t been all that bad. He’s cheap and allows you to pay up for bats if that’s the route you want to take. Pitching today isn’t pretty, so it may not be a bad idea.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings:
These are three pitchers that we can look to target given their opposing offenses as the hitting conditions. First, we have the Phillies who draw Anibal Sanchez on the mound. The Phils have an implied run total of 4.8 runs, but we do have some weather issues here. Keep an eye for updates over in the Weather Station. Next is my favorite stack of the day, many of you know that I’m a huge Brewers fan and I promise you this is not a homer pick. The Brewers and Mets played 18 innings last night in the longest game in Miller Park history. These bullpens are TAXED! Not only will the Brewers get Jason Vargas, but a completely beat up bullpen, I LOVE THEM here. Finally, we have the Blue Jays who get Drew Smyly in friendly hitting Texas. They have an implied total of 5.2 runs, they’re not on the main slate, but certainly viable if you’re playing other slates today.
Full Count Breakdown:
Tampa Bay Rays (-175) @ Baltimore Orioles (+160)
We’ve got some weather issues here in Baltimore, so make sure to keep an eye on the Weather Station before clicking submit on those lineups. If it does end up being good to go, I love the Rays offense here. They were a huge letdown and got shutout last night, but I’ll go right back to the well here.
TBR
5-star plays: Tommy Pham, Yandy Diaz, Ji-Man Choi
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: I like the Rays to bounce back here.
BAL
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Not much interest in the O’s offense
Seattle Mariners (+129) @ Cleveland Indians (-140)
I think both of these offenses are viable, neither of these pitchers are great or really above average for that matter. If I had to choose I would side with the Mariners, not only to they get guaranteed 9th inning at-bats, but have some nice left-handed power to battle this pitcher with.
SEA
5-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Jay Bruce
4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion, Domingo Santana, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: I like the Mariners as a contrarian stack
CLE
5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Carlos Santana
GPP Note: They’re neck and neck with the Mariners, Indians are probably safer for cash games
Kansas City Royals (+115) @ Detroit Tigers (-124)
I warned you guys of the Homer Bailey resurgence last night and I hope you listened! With that said, the Royals offense went bonkers last night and if you think that continues, roll them right back out there it’s another good spot. The Tigers are in a decent spot as well, but there are better offenses on this slate, I don’t feel the need to go there.
KCR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ryan O’Hearn, Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: They’re fine as one-offs and mini-stacks, I don’t see myself getting much though
DET
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: They’re a cheap stack, but for good reason. The pitching today isn’t very expensive, so I don’t think you need to settle for this stack.
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Atlanta Braves (-113) @ Miami Marlins (+104)
Julio Tehran will probably end up being one of my higher owned pitchers today just because of the matchup and the other options. With that said, zero interest in the Miami offense. You can also make a case for Pablo Lopez in this big pitchers part, if I’m going with Braves bats I’ll stick to just one-offs.
ATL
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna
GPP Note: Just one-offs for me
MIA
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Not much interest in the Marlins for me
Oakland Athletics (-114) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+105)
I’ll likely have interest in both of these pitchers for the same reason I like the guys in the Miami game. The ballpark is great for pitching and both pitchers have been relatively solid this season. I get nervous rostering pitchers against the A’s because of their upside, but I think its viable today.
OAK
5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Khris Davis
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty
GPP Note: One-offs only
PIT
5-star plays: Josh Bell
4-star plays: Gregory Polanco
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Montas than the Pirates offense
Washington Nationals (+149) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-161)
As I mentioned when breaking down the pitchers, we will need to keep an eye on the Weather Station here, it looks like there is a good deal of rain in the area. I want to target Zach Eflin here, but I don’t think we can if there is any chance of a delay. The Phillies are certainly in play, as they get a nice matchup with Anibal Sanchez.
WAS
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Adams, Juan Soto
GPP Note: I have more interest in Zach Eflin
PHI
5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: I like the Phillies as a stack on this slate, just be on the lookout for a weather report
Boston Red Sox (-170) @ Chicago White Sox (+156)
This Boston offense went bananas yesterday and I like their chances of keeping it going today with a matchup against Dylan Covey. They have one of the highest implied run totals on the day at 5.5. If we head over to the Research Station, they have a great deal of guys with phenomenal DFSA Grades.
Rick Porcello is coming off back-to-back nice starts, so I’ll wait until is form is a little worse before stacking against him. He is in play as a pitching option today.
BOS
5-star plays: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: They’re one of the best stacks on the slate, but will be popular given their performance yesterday
CHW
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yonder Alonso, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Porcello than the White Sox
New York Mets (+132) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-143)
As I mentioned earlier, the Brewers are my favorite stack on the board today. These two teams went 18 innings last night and both bullpens are taxed. The difference? The Brewers will be starting Zach Davies who has been excellent this year, and the Mets will be starting gas can, Jason Vargas. I expect Christian Yelich to be back in the lineup after getting a pinch-hit appearance last night and Ryan Braun and Jesus Aguilar destroy left-handed pitching, I’m licking my chops on this one.
NYM
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano, Peter Alonso
GPP Note: Zach Davies has been very good this season until he proves otherwise, I’ll be avoiding opposing offenses.
MIL
5-star plays: Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar, Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Thames, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Favorite stack of the day for me and may come in with less ownership than Boston
Toronto Blue Jays (+124) @ Texas Rangers (-134)
I like both of these offenses here, neither of these pitchers are particularly scary and they draw a good hitters park in conditions. Both teams are viable for stacks, mini-stacks, and one-offs.
TOR
5-star plays: Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Brandon Drury, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: Nice implied total here and grade out really well in the Research Station.
TEX
5-star plays: Joey Gallo
4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: I like the Toronto side a bit more, but certainly viable
Arizona Diamondbacks (+127) @ Colorado Rockies (-138)
Anytime there is a game in Coors you need to at least have some interest in the bats. However, there are two great pitchers going in this game with Zack Greinke and German Marquez, I’ll likely look elsewhere for bats, but don’t blame you if you want to go there.
ARI
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Secondary stack for me
COL
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Secondary stack, but prefer this side of the game
Minnesota Twins (+123) @ New York Yankees (-133)
As mentioned with the pitchers, you need to have one tab on the Weather Station today, there is a lot of rain in the New York area. If they’re able to go, I like Domingo German more than the Twins offense here. As far as the Yankees go, they get a matchup with their old friend Michael Pineda, there are some decent options here.
MIN
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler
GPP Note: I’ll have more German than Twins
NYY
5-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit
4-star plays: Miguel Andujar
GPP Note: I don’t hate the idea of a mini-stack
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Houston Astros (-220) @ Los Angeles Angels (+201)
Justin Verlander is one of the best pitching options on the day, load up on him. Matt Harvey is one of the worst pitching options on the day, don’t load up on him. The Astros have an implied total of 6.1 runs, they will be popular in late slates, but for good reason
HOU
5-star plays: Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer
GPP Note: Probably the best overall stack of the day with all things considered
LAA
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Trout
GPP Note: There’s no reason to target an offense going against Justin Verlander
San Francisco Giants (+164) @ Cincinnati Reds (-178)
Jeff Samardzija is popping in the Carnage Report, but I really don’t like the matchup for him, I’m more tempted to go with the Reds offense. Luis Castillo is very playable on the other side though, he has elite strikeout stuff.
SFG
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Brandon Belt
GPP Note: One-offs only
CIN
5-star plays: Jesse Winker, Joey Votto
4-star plays: Yasiel Puig, Derek Dietrich
GPP Note: I kind of like the Reds as a contrarian stack
Los Angeles Dodgers (-138) @ San Diego Padres (+127)
I don’t love targeting offenses in this park due to how big it is, making Kenta Maeda a solid pitching play. Manny Machado is smoking the ball right now and is worth of a one-off until he cools off. The Dodgers are interesting in a plus matchup against Margevicius.
LAD
5-star plays: Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Not a bad stack, just hate the ballpark
SDP
5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Just one-offs
St. Louis Cardinals (+127) @ Chicago Cubs (-138)
The Sunday Night Baseball game should be a good one between Adam Wainwright and Jose Quintana. Be sure to take a look at our coaches notes on who they like here tonight before making your lineups! But for my two cents, I think we can load up on both offenses here. Wainwright isn’t what he use to be and the Cardinals offense is loaded.
STL
5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Martinez
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Yadier Molina, Harrison Bader
GPP Note: I like this team against a lefty
CHC
5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Also a great stacking option
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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