Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for tonight’s main slate, and none of them should really come as a huge surprise given their ability/matchup. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- Rich Hill – I love picking on the Padres because of all the strikeouts in their lineup. With that said, they are able to put a few balls over the fence, but the upside is certainly there. Rich Hill is a very solid option for tonight’s slate.
- Joey Lucceshi – On the other side of the field we get the opposing pitcher in Lucchesi. If I’m being honest, I don’t love picking on the Dodgers offense, however, you can talk me into it when a lefty is on the mound. Lucchesi has had some huge home/road splits this season and is on the right side of them here tonight, he’s a solid GPP option and borderline cash.
- Gio Gonzalez – I gotta be honest, I don’t love this play. Gio has next to zero strikeout equity at this point in his career and certainly doesn’t draw a great pitchers ballpark. Gio just got the Mets last weekend and was only able to strike out two batters on his way to 7.1 Draftkings points. With all of that said, his price is enticing and I won’t talk you off of him if he helps you fit in some bats.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings:
These are the three lowest pitchers on the carnage report and are guys we can look to attack with opposing offenses. Starting with the Diamondbacks who get Kyle Freeland on the mound. Arizona put up 10 runs last night and go right back to Coors again tonight, they will be expensive, but if you can get there there’s a lot to like. Washington draws a matchup with Jake Arrieta, I may have to dig a little more on this one because I really don’t love picking on Arrieta in terms of stacking, he’s very good at limiting runs. Finally, Toronto goes into Texas and gets Lance Lynn on the mound. I loved this game last night and it put up one run in 12 innings (eye-roll). I’m willing to go right back to the well here, the Jays have an implied total of 4.7 runs in a great ballpark for some runs.
Full Count Breakdown:
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
Odds: NYY -132, 8.5 o/u
I like the Yankees much more than the Twins here, but I think both teams are viable. If I were using the Twins I would probably stick to one-offs or mini-stacks, however.
MIN
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Happ is a good pitcher, so don’t go crazy, but I can see the Twins putting up a few runs here
NYY
5-star plays: Luke Voit
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Not the greatest option on the slate, but certainly has some options
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Odds: CHC -133
It looks like the wind won’t be a huge deal in this one, but as always keep an eye on the Weather Station to get a confirmation before lock. I have a lot of interest in the Cardinals here. Darvish has been better lately, but he’s still walking a bunch of guys and is vulnerable to the long ball. The Cardinals offense is great and will hopefully go under-owned tonight. The Cubs are in a decent spot too, I never hate picking on Michael Wacha.
STL
5-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: I love the Cardinals as a contrarian stack here
CHC
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez
GPP Note: I don’t mind one-offs here, but I like the Cards side better
Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Indians
Odds: CLE -215, 8.5 o/u
I’ll have some interest in Carlos Carrasco here, so not much love in the Mariners from me. The Indians, on the other hand, are a great stack and one of the best on the early slate as they’re implied for 5.1 runs.
SEA
5-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach
4-star plays: Jay Bruce
GPP Note: One-offs only
CLE
5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Carlos Santana
GPP Note: I like the Indians a good amount here, one of the best stacks on the early slate
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Odds:
This game is interesting, I think the Tigers will draw more ownership than they probably should. Homer Bailey has done something to his game and has been much better this season. With that said, he’s still susceptible to allowing some big innings, so I don’t hate the idea of a Tigers stack, but I would rather take my chances with a better offense. The Royals have some nice pieces, but likely not someone I’ll be fully stacking.
KCR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: One-offs only
DET
5-star plays: Niko Goodrum
4-star plays: Jaimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: I’ll be underweight on the Tigers here
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Odds: Atl -166, 7.5 o/u
Mike Soroka makes some sense as a pitching option here, there are a good number of strikeouts in the Marlins lineup which is weak in the first place. I don’t love stacking in big pitchers parks like this one, but you can make a case for some Braves plays here.
ATL
5-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: I like some of these guys as one-offs in spite of the big park
MIA
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Curtis Granderson
GPP Note: Maybe Granderson as a value play, but nothing I love
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Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Odds: Phi -125, 8.0 o/u
I talked earlier about the Nationals potentially being in a good spot against Arrieta, but I would prefer mini-stacks or one-offs. Patrick Corbin is one of the better pitchers in the league and I’ll have interest in him, so no love for the Phillies from me.
WAS
5-star plays: Juan Soto, Matt Adams
4-star plays: Adam Eaton
GPP Note: I like the lefties here, but not going crazy
PHI
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Harper and Hoskins are great one-off plays
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Odds:
It looks like Yonny Chirinos is the projected long reliever after Stanek here, so I’ll have some interest in him against an O’s lineup full of strikeouts. As far as the Rays, I love them against Dylan Bundy who is very prone to giving up the long ball.
TBR
5-star plays: Tommy Pham, Ji-Man Choi
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: I love the Rays here
BAL
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Chirinos as a pitching option
Oakland Athletics @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Odds: Even, 7.5 o/u
Joe Musgrove was popular tonight and I really don’t know why. I get the park being beneficial to pitchers, but this A’s offense is something I don’t want to be targeting pitchers against. With that said, I don’t think we need to chase the A’s big night last night, but Bassit offers some nice SP2 value.
OAK
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Kendrys Morales
GPP Note: One-offs only
PIT
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: No thanks
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers
Odds: MIL -117, 8.5 o/u
Gio Gonzalez ranks very highly on the Carnage Report, so I’m hesitant to target the Mets here but I think they’re playable if you want exposure to them. Zach Wheeler has pitched well this season, but the Brewers offense is elite and I would expect Christian Yelich to be back in the lineup tonight.
NYM
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I don’t love Gio here and I don’t love the Mets offense, weird situation here. Keep an eye on this one
MIL
5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: If picking a team from this game, it’s the Brewers for sure
San Francisco Giants @ Cincinnati Reds
Odds: Cin -133, 9.0 O/U
This game turned into a shootout last night, scoring a total of 23 runs. I don’t think that’s repeatable and I think Tanner Roark is a decent SP2 option if you’re looking to pay down. The Reds have an implied run total of nearly 5 runs here, I don’t have a problem getting some action on them.
SFG
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Brandon Belt
GPP Note: More interest in Roark than the Giants offense
CIN
5-star plays: Yasiel Puig, Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Joey Votto
GPP Note: I like the Reds as a contrarian stack
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
Odds: Hou -140, 9.5 o/u
Wade Miley seems like a guy we want to stack against, but he’s been able to reinvent himself over the past two seasons. Given the weakness of the Angels bottom half of the lineup, it’s a no from me. I actually don’t have an issue with going with Miley if you need a cheap SP2 option to jam in some bats. The Astros, on the other hand, are very stackable.
HOU
5-star plays: George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: I like the Astros here, in what looks like nice hitting conditions
LAA
5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: As weird as it sounds, I like Miley more than the Angels lineup
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Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox
Odds:
Eduardo Rodriguez is a very good pitching option on this slate, as the White Sox have an implied run total of less than 4. The Red Sox are a different team when they’re away from home, but I love Betts and JD Martinez against lefties, they’re two of the best hitters in baseball against left-handed pitching.
BOS
5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Steve Pearce
GPP Note: I love a Betts-JD mini-stack, otherwise one-offs only
CHW
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jose Abreu
GPP Note: I’ll have a good amount of E-rod, so no White Sox for me
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers
Odds: Tex -140, 10 o/u
I have interest in both of these offenses, neither of these pitchers are great. These teams dudded last night and I was all over them, I’ll go right back to the well tonight.
TOR
5-star plays: Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Eric Sogard, Vlad Guererro
GPP Note: I like the Rangers more, but the Jays are playable
TEX
5-star plays: Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, Asdrubal Cabrera, Rougned Odor
4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo
GPP Note: I love the Rangers tonight, one of my favorite stacks on the day
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Odds: COL -132, 10.5 o/u
No surprise that this game offers the highest over/under on the slate as the game will be played in Coors. I’ll play Luke Weaver eventually this season, as I think he’s a talented kid, but not in Coors. These teams will be expensive but are great plays given the environment.
ARI
5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta, Adam Jones
GPP Note: Expensive stack, but good if you can pull it off
COL
5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy
GPP Note: Much like the Dbacks, they’re expensive, but one of the best stacks on the slate
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Odds: LAD -129, 7.5 o/u
I have close to zero interest in bats in this game, as we see two very good pitchers on the mound. Both Lucchesi and Rich Hill showed up in the top three of the Carnage Report, I’ll have more of them than any bats here.
LAD
5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: One-offs only
SD
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No thanks
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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