Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for tonight’s slate, and none of them should really come as a huge surprise given their ability/matchup. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- Sonny Gray – I’ve been streaming pitchers against the Giants all season long, and it likely won’t end here. I would like Gray a lot more if this game were in San Fran, but nonetheless, it’s a weak Giants offense. Not only that, but a surprisingly high KSCORE for Gray, I like him here as a nice mid-range option.
- Tyler Glasnow – Baltimore is another team that we can look to target pitchers against. They can be a bit hit or miss which makes them a little more difficult to target, but the strikeouts are certainly there. He’s also been much better on the road for some reason, in three starts he is averaging 31.2 Draftkings points per game.
- Clayton Kershaw – Yet another team I like to target in the Padres. The thing with the Padres is they strike out a ton and this is evident with Kershaw’s massive 600 KSCORE. The Padres are only implied for 3.1 runs tonight, I love Kershaw as a nice spend up option.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings:
We can look to take advantage of these three offenses given their pitching matchups tonight. The Phillies will get Jeremy Hellickson and are implied for 5.4 runs which is currently one of five teams with a total over 5. The Diamondbacks are expected to be in a shootout with the Rockies tonight, Tyler Anderson has struggled this season and I expect that to continue here. Finally, the Tampa Bay Rays draw one of the best matchups on the board. They have an implied run total of 5.5 and get a nice ballpark boost playing in Camden Yards. I wish Austin Meadows was healthy, but hey beggars can’t be choosers.
Full Count Breakdown:
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Odds: STL -114
This is the lone early game of the day and is not on any main slate around the industry. We don’t have a total yet on this game, as I write this the night before. We normally don’t get early totals on Cubs home games because the wind can be so unpredictable in the Windy City. Be sure to keep an eye on the Weather Station for a final verdict before playing any showdown lineups. Going with the info we have now, it looks like the wind will be blowing in around 10 mph, which is a bump to pitchers. I have no interest in Kyle Hendricks but do like Jack Flaherty a decent amount.
STL
5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter
4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: I don’t love that the wind is likely blowing in, but this Cardinals offense is very good against a below average pitcher.
CHC
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: One-offs only
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Odds: TBR -230, 9.0 o/u
As I mentioned under the carnage report breakdown, Tyler Glasnow is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate, so no interest in the O’s offense for me. However, also mentioned above, the Rays are one of the better stacks on the slate given their matchup with Dan Straily.
TBR
5-star plays: Tommy Pham, Ji-Man Choi, Mike Zunino (DK)
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Up there as one of the better stacks on the slate
BAL
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No thanks
Our MLB Domination Station lineup optimizer is Powered by DFS Army proprietary projections. The Domination Station will help you create 150 of the highest projected lineups in a matter of minutes. With features that allow you to Like
Love
or Dislike
a player, you can create a fully unique pool of players to generate your lineups from every day. Combine the power of the Domination Station with our VIP Only Articles and the MLB Research Station to really take your game to the next level.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Odds: Phi -170, 9.0 o/u
It feels like these two teams have played about 20 times already this season, but nonetheless. I touched on the Phillies up above as being a great offense to target against Hellickson. Anytime the Research Station has guys in the 90’s for DFSA Grades I’ll have some interest and Hoskins and Harper are grading as such.
WAS
5-star plays: Juan Soto, Matt Adams
4-star plays: Adam Eaton
GPP Note: I like stacking up the Nat’s lefties here
PHI
5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Maikel Franco
GPP Note: I have no issue stacking this team up
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
Odds: NYY -157, 7.5 o/u
Even though it’s a home game for the Yankees in a small ballpark I’m really not in love with either offense. James Paxton is one of the better pitchers in the league, so the Twins are a no. From the Yankees, I just think there are better full stacks, but there are some nice one-offs.
MIN
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Paxton is a playable pitcher given his ability
NYY
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Probably just one-offs here for me
Oakland Athletics @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Odds: Pitt -117, 7.5 o/u
We’ve got a decent amount of rain in the area from the looks of the early radar. Be sure to take a look at the Weather Station before committing to anyone in this game. If it gets the all clear, I really don’t have interest in much of this game. It’s a tough ballpark for hitters, but the A’s are certainly capable of putting up runs in bunches no matter where they are. As far as the Pirates go, I just haven’t been on them all year and I won’t be starting tonight on a 14 game slate.
OAK
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Khris Davis
GPP Note: One-offs only
PIT
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Melky Cabrera, Josh Bell
GPP Note: One-offs only
Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Indians
Odds: Cle -160, 8.0 o/u
It sounds like Kikuchi will return as normal to start this game so we don’t need to worry about him just going an inning. With that said, I think there are some options on the Indians here. It’s crazy how much of a difference Lindor makes to this lineup. Shane Bieber isn’t normally a guy I want to pick on, so the Mariners will be a pass for me from a stacking standpoint.
SEA
5-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach
4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion
GPP Note: Vogelbach makes sense as a one-off, his DFSA Grade is through the roof
CLE
5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Hanley Ramirez
GPP Note: The Indians are a sneaky stack for large field GPPs
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Odds: Atl -157, 8.0 o/u
I like Kevin Gausman a good deal here, he gets a very nice ballpark upgrade to go along with a weak Marlins offense. As far as the Braves go, I don’t love stacking in this park, but they have some nice one-offs.
ATL
5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: One-offs only given the ballpark
MIA
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Nah
San Francisco Giants @ Cincinnati Reds
Odds: Cin -156, 8.5 o/u
As mentioned earlier, Sonny Gray has the highest carnage rating on the slate, so I likely won’t have much of the Giants here. However, the Reds have some sneaky upside given the matchup with Beede.
SFG
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: None
CIN
5-star plays: Yasiel Puig, Eugenio Saurez
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Mini-stacks are very viable here
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Odds: Det -152, 8.5 o/u
Matt Boyd has pitched very well this season, and I’ll have some interest here, so no Royals for me. The Tigers have a decent sized implied total at 4.7 runs, so you can make a case for a GPP stack.
KCR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll wait for a better spot to attack the stolen base upside with this team
DET
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Nick Castellanos, Jaimer Candelario
GPP Note: Mini-stack if you’re feeling lucky
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers
Odds: Tex -153, 9.5 o/u
Would you believe me if I told you that Mike Minor has two 40-point Draftkings outings this season? I would have some interest in him here, but it looks like there is some rain in the area and I don’t target pitchers with a potential of a delay. Keep an eye on the Weather Station for this one. But, holy man look at the DFSA Grades on these Rangers bats …
TOR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Justin Smoak
GPP Note: Not a lot of interest here for me
TEX
5-star plays: Joey Gallo, Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Nomar Mazara
4-star plays: Danny Santana, Rougned Odor
GPP Note: Love the Rangers if this game is able to go
The MLB Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB ReSearch Station includes today’s
DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with CeeGee and Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as apart of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers
Odds: Mil -129, o/u 9.0
Anytime the Brewers are playing in Miller Park I’ll have interest in their offense, so no Matz for me. You can also make a case for the Mets offense, as Woodruff has been nothing special this season. Pete Alonso feels like a great option for a home run ball.
NYM
5-star plays: Peter Alonso
4-star plays: Wilson Ramos (DK)
GPP Note: One-offs only for me
MIL
5-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Lorenzo Cain
GPP Note: Full stack is very viable if you want to get contrarian
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox
Odds: Bos -203, 8.0 o/o
No Chris Sale hasn’t been the same this year, but he’s had back to back nice starts, I’ll have more interest in him than the White Sox offense. The Red Sox make for one of the best offensive plays on the slate, although they get a ballpark downgrade and a pitcher coming off of a career performance.
BOS
5-star plays: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: I like the Red Sox, but probably won’t crack my top three stacks
CHW
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No thanks
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Odds: Even, 11.0 o/u
This game has a massive implied run total and two lefty pitchers that can be had at the right time. The run total is because this game is in Coors and also because the Rockies hammer left-handed pitching. Curveballs go to die in Coors field and Robbie Ray throws a lot of them, both of these offenses are playable, don’t let the name of Robbie Ray scare you off of the Rockies.
ARI
5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar
4-star plays: Nick Ahmed, David Peralta, Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Coors stacks are almost always in play if you can afford them
COL
5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Ian Desmond, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: A Story and Arenado mini-stack are going to cost a small fortune, but in this spot, it may be worth it.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Odds: LAD -166, 7.0 o/u
I won’t be playing the Padres against Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are viable against Lauer but on a slate this size I think we can go elsewhere.
LAD
5-star plays: Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Kike Hernandez, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Austin Barnes
GPP Note: Contrarian stack
SD
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: None
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have the experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return, and you have a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
