Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for the early slate, and none of them should really come as a huge surprise given their ability/matchup. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- Charlie Morton – Morton draws a great matchup with the Royals who have an implied run total of 3.6 today. Their lineup contains a good amount of strikeouts, although Merrifield, Gordon, and Maldonado can be pesky. I like Morton here at a pretty decent price on both sites.
- Noah Syndergaard – Thor is probably my favorite option on the early slate given the matchup. I played a lot of deGrom yesterday and it worked out well, so I may go right back here. The VKSCORE is through the roof and the depending on the lineup, the Reds can certainly strikeout.
- Stephen Strasburg – I never love targeting the Cardinals, as I think they have a very good and pesky lineup. I didn’t play Scherzer much yesterday for this reason. With that said, there are a decent amount of strikeouts in this offense, so if he gives up a few runs it’s not a massive deal.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings:
These three pitchers have the worst carnage rating on the slate, so we can look to attack them with opposing offenses. If I’m being honest, I would have some interest in Freddy Peralta if he were healthy. However, this is his first start off of the IL so he may be a bit rusty. The Rockies scored a bunch of runs last night thanks to three home runs from Arenado and Story, they’re a very solid option today. The Brewers get a matchup with Jon Gray who has been a bit all over the place this season. He makes sense to target with a Brewers offense at home. Finally, the Nationals seem to be in one of the better spots of the day. They have the highest implied run total of the early slate at 4.9.
Full Count Breakdown:
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Odds: Atl -130, 8.5 o/u
Both of these offenses are in play for me given the pitching options and the hitting conditions. I liked the Braves a lot yesterday, and I’ll likely go back to the well with Donaldson and Acuna back in the lineup.
SDP
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Mini-stacks and full stacks for large field GPPs
ATL
5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: One of my favorite stacks on the early slate
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets
Odds: NYM -170, 7.5 o/u
I won’t have any of the Reds offense, as Syndeergard is one of my favorite pitching options on this slate. However, Tyler Mahle has a lot of trouble with lefties. The Mets have a lineup full of lefties, their one of my favorite sneaky options on this slate.
CIN
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No Reds today
NYM
5-star plays: Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano
4-star plays: Dominic Smith
GPP Note: Love the Mets lefties here
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Odds: Mil -125, 8.5 o/u
These two offenses are very good and given the pitching on both sides, we should be able to target them in this spot. Miller Park is great for left-handed power, and really all power as it is very small. Both offenses are in play here.
COL
5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Daniel Murphy
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: The Rockies are very much in play as a stack and as one-offs
MIL
5-star plays: Christian Yelich (If in the Lineup), Yasmani Grandal, Eric Thames
4-star plays: Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: The Brewers are very viable here as well, as the Rockies bullpen got beat up pretty good yesterday.
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Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
Odds: Even, 8.0 o/u
Both of the pitchers in this game are viable which makes me hesitant to play either offense. Jose Berrios has had some serious home/road splits in his career, so I likely won’t have much Astros. As far as the Twins go, I may just stick to one-offs.
HOU
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: One-offs only
MIN
5-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Marwin Gonzalez
GPP Note: I like the Twins as a mini-stack option or for large field GPPs.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
Odds: TBR -160, 8.0 o/u
As I mentioned, Charlie Morton ranks at the top of the Carnage Report, so no interest in the Royals here. With that said, the Rays are definitely in play against Danny Duffy.
TBR
5-star plays: Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Avisail Garcia, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: GPP Stack only
KCR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ryan O’Hearn, Hunter Dozier, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: One-offs only
St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals
Odds: Was -145, 9.0 o/u
Stephen Strasburg is a solid pitching option on this slate, so I’ll stick to one-offs from the Cards. However, the Nationals are one of my favorite offenses on the slate.
STL
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: One-offs only
WAS
5-star plays: Matt Adams, Juan Soto, Carter Kieboom
4-star plays: Adam Eaton
GPP Note: The Nats are right up there with the Braves and Mets for me.
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Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox
Odds: Bos -190, 8.5 o/u
The Red Sox are a great stack here, as Lucas Giolito can be prone to giving up runs in bunches. If you’re playing in the main slate, David Price is certainly viable so I likely won’t have much of the White Sox offense.
BOS
5-star plays: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Red Sox are a great stack
CHW
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Not much interest here
Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels
Odds: LAA -150, 8.5 o/u
Tyler Skaggs makes a lot of sense as an SP2 option, but I won’t have much interest in Aaron Sanchez. The Angels can be tough to stack because of the bottom of the lineup, but I like them here.
TOR
5-star plays: Justin Smoak
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: One-offs only
LAA
5-star plays: Mike Trout, Tommy La Stella, Justin Bour
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: I like the Angels here
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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