Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Count Breakdown:
Chicago White Sox () @ Minnesota Twins (-236)
This game has a total of 10.5, which is extremely juicy. This is another lopsided affair as Odorizzi and the Twins should be in line for a pretty easy W against Covey and the White Sox. Covey has walked 16 batters while striking out just 7 on the season so far. He is in for a long day if he allows MIN to have a bunch of baserunners. He has also given up 3 HR’s in just 10 road innings so far.
CWS
5- star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: The White Sox strike out at roughly a 27% rate against RHP
MIN
5-star plays: Jake Odorizzi, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Twins strike out at roughly a 20% rate against RHP
New York Yankees (-150) @ Kansas City Royals ()
This game has a total sitting at 9.5 runs. My initial thought is that the game total is a bit high as I do have an interest in both Ps for GPP purposes. Duffy is one that has more appeal to me as he has a better K match-up but he also has more of a volatile lineup to navigate through. German has faced KC once so far in 2019.
NYY
5- star plays: Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Domingo German
GPP Note: Yankees strike out at roughly a 27% rate against LHP
KC
5-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier
4-star plays: Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Royals strike out at a 22% rate against RHP
Cincinnati Reds () @ Chicago Cubs (-160)
This game opens with a run total of 7.5 Sunday morning. By the looks of it via our weather station, this game appears to be better suited for the pitching than it is the hitting. With that being said, there is still some power bats that need to be considered while also adds Quintana to the mix for our GPP pitching options.
CIN
5- star plays: Nick Senzel
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Reds strike out at a 22% rate against LHP
CHC
5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, Jose Quintana
GPP Note: The Cubs strike out just above 22% against RHP
San Diego Padres (-130) @ Toronto Blue Jays ()
This game opens with a total of just 8 runs. I love the pitching match-up as we get the upside of Paddack to go with a floor of Stroman and his ground ball ability. SD just erupted on Saturday for 7 HR’s but I do not see that being the theme for Sunday’s game. All of the HRs allowed by Stroman this season have come by LHB however his career numbers lean towards RHB providing the power stroke. All of Paddack’s HRs against have come by LHBs as well in 2019.
SD
5- star plays: Eric Hosmer, Chris Paddack
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: SD is striking out at over a 27% rate against RHP
TOR
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Stroman, Justin Smoak
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP
Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) @ San Francisco Giants ()
This game opens with a total of just 7.5 runs so we definitely need to consider both pitching options. Weaver is the one that excites me more as we know his ability, the park is made for a flyball pitcher and the Giants offense just is not dangerous. Anderson is more of a wild card at this point, having made just two starts so far. Look at Anderson as a GPP option as people may avoid him based on how ARI’s offense has been this weekend.
ARI
5- star plays: Luke Weaver
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at just over a 24% rate against RHP
SF
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Shaun Anderson
GPP Note: SF is striking out at just under a 25% rate against RHP
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Miami Marlins () @ Washington Nationals (-140)
The game opened with a run total of 8.5 on Sunday morning. The better offense belongs to WAS but the better pitcher in this game belongs to MIA. Caleb Smith has been really good this year and has some really strong strikeout numbers. If he is able to navigate a couple of WAS bats, I think he could be an excellent GPP option.
MIA
5- star plays: Caleb Smith
4-star plays: Curtis Granderson
GPP Note: Marlins are striking out at over a 26% rate against RHP
WAS
5-star plays: Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Brian Dozier
GPP Note: Nationals are striking out at a 25% rate against LHP
Seattle Mariners () @ Oakland Athletics (-150)
This game has an initial total of 9.5 runs. We know that SEA has really struggled over the last month and we also know that they have been atrocious against LHP. We can’t expect much of a K performance out of Anderson but he could provide us a solid start at a cheaper price point. The A’s have had very good success against Leake in their careers.
5- star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Beckham, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: SEA strikes out at nearly a 28% rate against LHP
OAK
5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: OAK strikes out at just a 20% rate against RHP
Detroit Tigers () @ New York Mets (-180)
This game opened with a total of 7.5 runs. Another game where I have a bunch of interest in both pitchers. Turnbull has been a surprise this season and Wheeler has been pretty solid outside of having to face the Nationals. Turnbull’s problems have been LHBs even though he has been better on the road so far in 2019.
DET
5-star plays: Spencer Turnbull
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: DET is striking out at over a 26% rate vs RHP
NYM
5-star plays: Zack Wheeler
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: NYM is striking out at a 24% rate against RHP
Philadelphia Phillies () @ Milwaukee Brewers (-165)
The game has an initial total of 9 runs. Both pitchers recently faced the opposition (roughly a week and a half ago) so we have some things that we can use to see where we think this game goes. Woodruff looked really solid against the Phillies, minus the walk issue. Eflin was not all that impressive against the Brewers and now gets to face them on their home turf.
PHI
5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Cesar Hernandez
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: PHI is striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP
MIL
5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Brandon Woodruff, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at just under a 26% rate vs RHP
Tampa Bay Rays () @ Cleveland Indians (-115)
This game opened Sunday morning with a total of 8.5 runs. The Indians haven’t been all that good this season but have, in my opinion, their ace taking the hill today. The Rays have been really strong and are going back to Stanek as the opener with Beeks as the probable long-reliever. Bauer has given up a few HRs at home this season and they haven’t been just solo shots.
TB
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Jalen Beeks
GPP Note: TB is striking out at just over a 22% rate against RHP
CLE
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trevor Bauer, Jordan Luplow
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at a 24% rate against RHP
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Atlanta Braves () @ St Louis Cardinals (-145)
This game has an initial total of 9 runs. Both pitchers have had solid outings against the opposition this season and I lean towards this game being more of a pitcher’s duel than an offensive explosion. I prefer the LHBs in the game but think that a couple of the power RHBs make a ton of sense for GPPs.
ATL
5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Julio Teheran
GPP Note: ATL has a K rate around 22% against RHP
STL
5-star plays: Matt Carpenter
4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Jack Flaherty
GPP Note: STL also has a K rate of about 22% against RHP
Boston Red Sox () @ Houston Astros (-185)
This game opened with a total of 8.5 runs. Verlander may go overlooked because of who the opponent is. Peacock threw extremely well on Saturday and picked up quite a few K’s. Seeing those K’s happen gives us some hope for using Verlander in a tougher spot. Rodriguez is a GPP dart play for me that I may not end up on but he does get a boost facing an Astros lineup without Springer and Altuve.
BOS
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Rodriguez
GPP Note: BOS has just a 20% K rate against RHP
HOU
5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Justin Verlander, Jake Marisnick
GPP Note: HOU has just a 21% K rate against LHP
Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) @ Pittsburgh Pirates ()
The game has a total of 8 runs. Maeda is coming off of the IL to make a start against a team that is not striking out against RHP this season. This game strikes me as one that will see a lot of balls put in play, which makes me lean towards a higher scoring game than Vegas expects right now. Archer was smacked around a bit against the Dodgers in April.
LAD
5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Kenta Maeda
GPP Note: LAD strike out at just a 20% rate against RHP
PIT
5-star plays: Josh Bell
4-star plays: Gregory Polanco
GPP Note: PIT has under a 21% K rate against RHP
Baltimore Orioles () @ Colorado Rockies (-280)
We get a Coors field game with a total of 11.5 runs. The Rockies are HUGE favorites at home so we HAVE to take a look at Marquez as a GPP option against a very weak Orioles squad. Marquez hasn’t been all too elite at home so far in 2019 but he has shown the ability to pitch extremely well at home at the major league level. Hess has given up 17 HRs in just 45 innings so far this season, with 14 of those coming to RHBs. SIGN…..ME……UP!!!
BAL
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: BAL is striking out at just under 23% against RHP
COL
5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
4-star plays: German Marquez
GPP Note: COL is striking out at a 24% rate against RHP
Texas Rangers () @ Los Angeles Angels (-160)
This game opened with a total of 9 runs. Heaney will be coming off of the IL to make this start and while I think he offers us an interesting GPP option, he may only see a 6 inning max. He threw 73 pitches in his last rehab outing so I definitely can see a route to 85-90 but I also could see him stop around 80 due to dealing with elbow issues to start the season.
TEX
5-star plays: Hunter Pence, Elvis Andrus
4-star plays: Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at just under a 29% rate against LHP
LAA
5-star plays: Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun
4-star plays: Andrew Heaney, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: LAA is striking out at just a 16% rate against RHP
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