Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Count Breakdown:
Chicago White Sox () @ Minnesota Twins (-230)
This game has a total of 10.5, which is extremely juicy. Banuelos has given up 10 HRs in just 31 innings on the mound so far in 2019. The Twins have hit 101 HRs in 50 games so far in 2019. Those two things correlate extremely well in this spot for the Twins offense. Gibson is going to garner some ownership today and while I understand the thought, I have some worries about him in a high total game.
CWS
5- star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: The White Sox strike out at roughly a 27% rate against RHP
MIN
5-star plays: CJ Cron, Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: Twins strike out at roughly a 20% rate against LHP
New York Yankees (-145) @ Kansas City Royals () – Game 1
This game has a total sitting at 10 runs. We have to pay attention to some potential weather in KC for this doubleheader. The Yankees bats are in an interesting spot against a P that can give up an HR or two. The Yankees are riding a 5 game winning streak and Happ has been solid against teams not named Baltimore but he is giving up a few HRs on the season.
NYY
5- star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Aaron Hicks, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Yankees strike out at a 22% rate against RHP
KC
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nicky Lopez, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: Royals strike out at a 23% rate against LHP
Cincinnati Reds () @ Chicago Cubs (-150)
We have a 10 run total in play here. We definitely want to pay attention to the weather and the wind. Both SPs have trouble with LHBs but Darvish has picked things up a bit since some horrendous outings to begin the season. I definitely have some interest in him but do worry about his near 6 ERA when pitching at Wrigley.
CIN
5- star plays: Derek Dietrich
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Nick Senzel
GPP Note: Reds strike out at a 25% rate against RHP
CHC
5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: The Cubs strike out just above 22% against RHP
San Diego Padres (-110) @ Toronto Blue Jays ()
I think we need to target this game for some HRs. SD will put up a pretty RH heavy lineup and Edwin Jackson has been more of reverse splits P than a traditional splits one. Quantrill is a rookie who is supposed to offer some groundball ability but has been giving up quite a few flyballs in the majors so far. The game has an initial total of 9.5 runs.
SD
5- star plays: Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: SD is striking out at over a 27% rate against RHP
TOR
5-star plays: Justin Smoak
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez, Freddy Galvis
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP
Arizona Diamondbacks () @ San Francisco Giants (-115)
I am a little surprised to see this game open up at 8 runs with how well the D’Backs have hit LHP in 2019. The rookie, Clarke, looks to be a solid option for GPP purposes but he does seem to lack K upside at the major league level right now. There are two trains of thought about ARI in this spot. The first one is that they just exploded for a ton of runs and “wasted” them and the other is that they could come out “hot” again.
ARI
5- star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Adam Jones
4-star plays: Nick Ahmed, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at just over a 21% rate against LHP
SF
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Pablo Sandoval
GPP Note: SF is striking out at just under a 25% rate against RHP
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Miami Marlins () @ Washington Nationals (-220)
This game has an initial total of 8.5 runs and I think the masses are just going to blindly plug Corbin in. While I can’t argue his ability, I can argue the K rate below that the Marlins offer against LHP. That rate is pretty low for a team as bad as they are. The Nationals offense has some explosive ability to them so they intrigue me for GPP purposes.
MIA
5- star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starlin Castro, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Marlins are striking out at just under a 21% rate against LHP
WAS
5-star plays: Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Nationals are striking out at just under a 26% rate vs RHP
Seattle Mariners () @ Oakland Athletics (-130)
This game has an initial total of 9 runs. Fiers has had a really good start and not so good start against SEA so far in 2019 while the same can kind of be said for Kikuchi against OAK. I LOVE OAK when they face LHP so this is a spot that I want to attack with bats from both teams. We know Fiers can give up the long ball and SEA happens to hit a lot of them.
SEA
5- star plays: Edwin Encarnacion
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: SEA strikes out against RHP at a 25 % rate
OAK
5-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Mark Canha
4-star plays: Chad Pinder
GPP Note: OAK strikes out at just under a 19% rate against LHP
Detroit Tigers () @ New York Mets (-180)
This game is interesting to me as we get two offenses that aren’t very good and have struggled badly against LHP on the season. The problem is that both LHP’s starting this game have been brutal this season as well. Will be interesting to see what lineups each team rolls out in this spot. We have a total this morning sitting at 9.5 runs.
DET
5-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: DET is striking out at a 28% rate against LHP
NYM
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Todd Frazier
GPP Note: NYM is striking out at nearly a 29% rate against LHP
Philadelphia Phillies () @ Milwaukee Brewers (-120)
The game has an initial total of 9 runs. Chacin has pitched really well at home this season but this match-up scares me for him. He traditionally has struggled against LHBs but this year has been the opposite. The Phillies have a ton of power and this is a game that we should be doing some HR hunting in.
PHI
5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Jean Segura
GPP Note: PHI is striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP
MIL
5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Ryan Braun
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at just under a 26% rate vs RHP
Tampa Bay Rays () @ Cleveland Indians (-125)
This game has an initial total of 8 runs with the Indians being a small home favorite. This is a game that I want to think about using both Ps for GPP purposes. Morton is in the better spot but I think that Carrasco has the bigger upside. The TB roster has, roughly, a 30% K rate against Carrasco in their careers while CLE has around a 25% K rate against Morton.
TB
5-star plays: Charlie Morton
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: TB is striking out at just over a 22% rate against RHP
CLE
5-star plays: Carlos Carrasco
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at a 24% rate against RHP
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Atlanta Braves (-110) @ St Louis Cardinals ()
This game has an initial total of 9 runs with the Braves being a very small road favorite. I am a big fan of Soroka overall so we need to be considering him here. His numbers so far in 2019 are absolutely elite. I am not a huge fan of Hudson but he has an elite groundball rate to RHBs so that is something to consider in this spot.
ATL
5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Mike Soroka
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Nick Markakis
GPP Note: ATL has a K rate around 22% against RHP
STL
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: STL also has a K rate of about 22% against RHP
Boston Red Sox () @ Houston Astros (-125)
This game opened with a total of 8.5 runs. I am interested in just some one-offs from this game as the P is solid enough to avoid for stack purposes. Both of the pitchers can get caught by some one-off HRs. The obvious side to take is HOU against an LHP. Devers might be my favorite play in the game.
BOS
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: BOS has just a 20% K rate against RHP
HOU
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: HOU has just a 21% K rate against LHP
Los Angeles Dodgers (-175) @ Pittsburgh Pirates ()
The game has a total of 8 runs with Ryu and the Dodgers are very strong road favorites. Musgrove threw a really strong game against the Dodgers, in LA so some are going to see that as a reason to fade the Dodgers offense. I am a big fan of their bats in this spot as a visiting team, they are “guaranteed” that 9th inning at-bat. Ryu is in an excellent spot as the Pirates do a ton more damage against RHP.
LAD
5-star plays: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: LAD strike out at just a 20% rate against RHP
PIT
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: PIT has nearly a 27% K rate against LHP
Baltimore Orioles () @ Colorado Rockies (-185)
We get a Coors field game with a total of 11.5 runs. We know that BAL is giving up HRs at a ridiculous pace so far in 2019. The COL career numbers against Cashner are extremely attractive. Cashner has also struggled a TON against RHBs in 2019. Freeland has struggled a lot this season but this could be a spot that he gets somewhat right. Alberto has been mashing LHP for the Orioles, which is a big surprise.
BAL
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: BAL is striking out at nearly a 28% rate against LHP
COL
5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy
GPP Note: COL is striking out at a 24% rate against RHP
Texas Rangers () @ Los Angeles Angels (-125)
This game opened with a total of 8.5 runs and with the Angels as a slight home favorite. Minor has one appearance against the Angels in 2019 and he managed a Complete Game shut-out in that appearance. The big thing is the fact that the Angels just do not strike out this season.
TEX
5-star plays: Hunter Pence
4-star plays: Mike Minor, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at just under a 29% rate against LHP
LAA
5-star plays: Tyler Skaggs, Mike Trout
4-star plays: Jonathan Lucroy, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: LAA is striking out at just a 16% rate against LHP
New York Yankees (-138) @ Kansas City Royals () – Game 2
The Yankees will roll out an opener for a game with a total set at 10.5 after the first game reached double figures in runs. I like the offenses from both sides here as I don’t consider Lopez to be all that scary. There are some weather concerns in the area that need to be checked into.
NYY
5-star plays: Luke Voit, Brett Gardner
4-star plays: Kendrys Morales, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: I wouldn’t expect to see Chad Green throw more than 2 innings. He has struggled quite a bit in 2019.
KC
5-star plays: Merrifield
4-star plays: Dozier, Soler
GPP Note: RHBs have really gotten to Green in 2019
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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