Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Count Breakdown:
Los Angeles Angels (-155) @ Baltimore Orioles (+)
This game has a total of 9 as of this writing. The Angels offense has heated up in Baltimore and I am torn on how to attack the game. The Angels send out a Rookie pitcher in this one and are still sizable favorites on the road. Means has thrown some pretty solid games so far this season, kind of out of nowhere. I was sneakily on BAL last night against Harvey but I don’t see myself jumping on them in this one as I believe in Canning’s ability. The Angels do struggle overall against LHP.
LAA
5- star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons
GPP Note: The Angels strike out at just a 17% clip against LHP this season but they have an ISO of just .149
BAL
5-star plays: Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Dwight Smith Jr, Chris Davis
GPP Note: Small sample size in the majors but Canning has been much stronger vs LHB’s so far in 2019, but his minor league numbers say the opposite.
Detroit Tigers (+) @ Minnesota Twins (-190)
The Twins offense is paying off constantly so far this season. The Twins have hit the 3rd most HR’s on the season, averaging roughly 1.8 HR/game. They have around the 4th best OPS against LHP (very limited AB’s compared to most of MLB). The game has a total of 9, so that provides MIN with a pretty strong team total to focus on. Perez has been nasty for the Twins and looks like a completely different guy on the mound so far in 2019.
DET
5- star plays: None
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Ronny Rodriguez
GPP Note: Detroit is striking out at over a 31% rate against LHP so far in 2019
MIN
5-star plays: Mitch Garver
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: As a team, MIN is 27 for 74 with 5 HR’s against Norris
Pittsburgh Pirates (+) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-150)
This game sits with a total at 8.5 as of late Saturday night. Saturday’s match-up was a pitcher’s duel but I do not see that happening today. With Pit starting an LHP I think we need to have some interest in the Cardinals offense. Their lineup gets very RH heavy and is very dangerous. Hudson is a very strong groundball pitcher for the Cardinals but he struggles against LHB’s.
PIT
5- star plays: Josh Bell
4-star plays: Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Hudson has given up 8 HR’s to LHB’s in just 70 AB’s this season
STL
5-star plays: Jose Martinez
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: STL has actually struggled against LHP so far in 2019 (.214/.315/.350 triple slash line)
Seattle Mariners (+) @ Boston Red Sox (-155)
We saw a lot of fireworks from the offenses on Saturday and with a total of 10.5 on Sunday I think we see some more in this one. Does not feel like a spot to rely on Marco Gonzales and we probably see Hector Velazquez throw around 50 pitches before giving way to the bullpen. There are some possible weather issues here.
SEA
5- star plays: Edwin Encarnacion
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Jay Bruce
GPP Note: SEA strikes out at just over a 28% clip against RHP in 2019
BOS
5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: BOS strikes out at just a 23% rate against LHP in 2019 and the team’s offensive profile against LHP will go way up once Betts and Pearce starting hitting LHP like they traditionally have.
Chicago White Sox (+) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-115)
This game has an initial total of 8.5 and that seems low at first glance. However, after digging in, I think that total is about right. Giolito has surprised a bit this season and has had some reverse splits going on, even though the power he is allowing is coming from the left side. Sanchez has been solid and the ground ball ability is there against an overall weak offense.
CHW
5- star plays: Yoan Moncada
4-star plays: Yonder Alonso, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: CHW are striking out at just under a 29% rate vs RHP
TOR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Justin Smoak, Eric Sogard
GPP Note: TOR has a K rate of just under 30% against RHP in 2019
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Miami Marlins (+) @ New York Mets (-175) — POSTPONED!
We get a pretty solid P match-up in this game as it offers us a total of just 6.5 as of Saturday night. At first glance, I can’t argue against using Smith or Syndergaard in this spot. I will be looking at the pitcher K props for this game as we could see 22+ strikeouts combined. I do not see myself having a ton of interest in bats, outside of a deep GPP play (maybe a prayer stack).
MIA
5- star plays: Caleb Smith
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: The Marlins strike out at a 30% rate against RHP in 2019 and the roster has a 30% K rate against Syndergaard in their careers.
NYM
5-star plays: Noah Syndergaard
4-star plays: Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Mets are striking out at a 32% clip against LHP in 2019. Caleb Smith has 20 K’s in 46 at-bats against him by the Mets roster.
New York Yankees (+) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-160)
This game has opened with a total of 7 runs. I really like the pitching match-up in this game as well but one side has a bit more volatility than the other. Snell had a little rough stretch after returning from a broken toe but has looked really solid of late. He has elite numbers and makes for an excellent play on this slate.
NYY
5- star plays: None
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: The Yankees are striking out at a 27% rate against LHP this season. Sanchez is 4 for 11 with 3 HR’s (and a double) against Snell
TB
5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: TB is striking out at a 25% rate against RHP in 2019
Texas Rangers (-220) @ Houston Astros (+)
This game offers us a pitching match-up of Sampson vs Martin. Sampson is a reverse splits RHP and Martin is a very strong prospect from a strong Astros farm system. Martin has a career minor league average against of .191 over 40 appearances (29 starts). I think I am going to be very high on the Houston RHB’s in this spot, at home. I am 100% shocked to see the line set the way it is as Sampson is not very good and Martin looks to be a pretty solid P.
TEX
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: TEX strikes out at a 27% rate against RHP this season.
HOU
5-star plays: Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: George Springer
GPP Note: HOU strikes out at under a 21% clip vs RHP in 2019.
Philadelphia Phillies (+) @ Kansas City Royals (-112)
We get another prospect making a debut in this game as the Phillies will promote Irvin to make the start against KC. He is not much of a K guy and relies on ground balls and teams putting the ball in play against him. On the other side, the Royals send out an HR prone pitcher in Jakob Junis.
PHI
5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: PHI strikes out at under a 27% rate vs RHP
KC
5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Kelvin Gutierrez
GPP Note: KC strikes out at a 27% rate vs LHP
San Diego Padres (+) @ Colorado Rockies (-115)
The main game of the afternoon slate provides us with a 12.5 projected run total. This sets up for a lot of runs and is going to be the target of a LOT of people. The obvious targets are the main COL bats but why not use some SD bats? Senzatela has been a reverse splits pitcher in his MLB career so far.
SD
5-star plays: Wil Myers, Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: SD has a 29.3% K rate against RHP in 2019
COL
5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy
GPP Note: The Rockies got to Margevicius for 5 runs on 7 hits over 4 innings earlier this season
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Cincinnati Reds (EVEN) @ San Francisco Giants (EVEN)
This game has a low total (7) and Bumgarner pitching at home, yet the game is a pick’em. The Reds have been really solid against LHP so far this season while Bumgarner hasn’t been his traditional self. I still think this is a spot to grab pitching as we could see a 2-1 type game when both starters exit.
CIN
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Yasiel Puig
GPP Note: CIN strikes out at just a 23.7% rate against LHP so far this season.
SF
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joe Panik, Pablo Sandoval/Brandon Belt
GPP Note: SF is striking out at a 26% rate vs RHP.
Cleveland Indians (+) @ Oakland Athletics (-110)
This game has a total of 9 as of this morning. With the P’s taking the mound, I wouldn’t be shocked to see that number rise to 9.5 by the time the game starts. The ballpark is what could keep this game at a 9. I think this game is sneaky for game stacking purposes.
CLE
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: CLE strikes out at a 27.6% rate vs RHP
OAK
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Chapman
GPP Note: OAK strikes out at just a 22.7% rate vs RHP this season
Washington Nationals (+) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-145)
This game is going to be a lot of fun to watch as a fan of baseball but not so much for DFS guys wanting runs. Strasburg vs Ryu gives us a game with a total of just 7 runs. Both P’s can give up some HR’s from time to time but they generally end up being solo shots.
WAS
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: WAS is striking out at nearly a 29% rate vs LHP in 2019.
LAD
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: LAD has a K rate of just 22.7% against RHP this season.
Atlanta Braves (-125) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+)
This game’s total sits at 9.5 as of this writing. We saw some late inning fireworks from the hitters last night and I think that carries over to today’s game. I really like Fried’s ability as a future top of the rotation type of arm. I very much side with the ATL side of the offenses here as Godley has been REALLY bad this season.
ATL
5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Nick Markakis
GPP Note: ATL has a 25% K rate against RHP this season
ARI
5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: ARI has just a 22.4% K rate against LHP this season.
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