Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for the early slate, and none of them should really come as a huge surprise given their ability/matchup and options on the slate. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- Matt Harvey – I gotta say, I wasn’t expecting to see Matt Harvey at the top of this list this season. He’s the cheapest pitcher on the early slate but draws a pretty nice matchup with the Baltimore Orioles. If I’m being honest, I probably won’t end up here especially in cash games. However, the O’s do strikeout at a 24.8% clip against right-handed pitching and really isn’t that scary of a lineup, so he makes some sense in GPPs.
- Marcus Stroman – I will have some interest in Stroman, however. The White Sox are striking out at a 23% rate against right-handed pitching and are only projected for 4 runs here which is one of the lower totals on the early slate. Stroman has had back-to-back bad starts but has really pitched well this season, I’m hoping the game logs draw ownership down.
- Jordan Lyles – Lyles is another guy that has pitched well this season. With that said, I don’t really love seeking out the Cardinals offense when looking for pitching. They have an implied run total of nearly 5 and have a lineup full of big bats.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings:
Here are three pitchers that we can look to attack with opposing offenses based on the carnage report. If I’m being honest I would probably have these two sections switched for today, I’m more likely to attack Lyles and Harvey and use Bauer and Davies as pitchers here. Boston however, is one of the better offenses on the day and exploded just last night. They have an implied run total of 6.2, so they will be popular here, but for good reason. Trevor Bauer is one of the best pitchers in baseball, in a pitchers ballpark, against a team projected for just 3.6 runs, I’ll have interest in him today. Zach Davies may seem like a guy you want to get exposure against, but he’s been incredible this season. He hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of his starts and has an ERA 1.56. The wind looks to be blowing in again in Chicago, so again, I’m more likely to use him rather than the Cubs offense, but keep an eye on the Weather Station just to make sure nothing changes.
Full Count Breakdown:
Seattle Mariners (+173) @ Boston Red Sox (-189)
I briefly touched on this matchup above, but the Red Sox are probably the best stack on the day. They have an implied run total of 6.2 which is massive and get a matchup with Felix Hernandez, who is not who he use to be. The issue is, this game isn’t on the early slate so we may just have to stick to the showdown slate to get exposure, it is on the FanDuel main slate, however. I do have some interest in the Mariners as well, given the park upgrade.
SEA
5- star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Edwin Encarnacion
4-star plays: Domingo Santana, Mitch Haniger, Jay Bruce
GPP Note: This team has a lot of pop, I don’t mind using them
BOS
5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Michael Chavis, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: One of the best stacks of the day
Detroit Tigers (+145) @ Minnesota Twins (+157)
I loved the Twins offense yesterday and they paid off nicely. Today they get a similar matchup with Spencer Turnbull who isn’t necessarily scary to face. They have an implied run total over five and should have no problem putting up some fantasy points here. As for the Tigers, I have a little interest, but I actually like Michael Pineda more than I thought I would. Jake Odorizzi lit this team up last night and I may jump back to the well tonight. Detroit strikes out at a 25.1% rate against right-handed pitching, that’s pretty tough to beat.
DET
5- star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum
GPP Note: I’ll likely have more exposure to Pineda
MIN
5-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Minnesota is a good offense and I’ll have some exposure here
Pittsburgh Pirates (+148) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-161)
Jordan Lyles was written up as one of the better pitching options on the slate, but I think I would rather play the Cardinals offense in this spot. They have an implied run total of 4.8 runs and Lyles numbers have come down over his past three starts. Miles Mikolas is not a guy I want to stack against, but not really a pitcher I want to use either, so the Pirates are a stay away from me, but you can make a case for Mikolas if you would like.
PIT
5- star plays: None
4-star plays: Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Starlin Marte
GPP Note: I have more interest in Mikolas than this offense
STL
5-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: I like the Cardinals here a good amount, they’re swinging the bat nicely as a unit
Milwaukee Brewers (+137) @ Chicago Cubs (-149)
The wind appears to be blowing in, but as always keep an eye on the Weather Station for any changes. These two teams are two of the hotter in baseball, as the Brewers have won 7 straight and the Cubs have won 10 of their last 12. Zach Davies is a guy that I don’t want to target hitters against, whatever he is doing is working, but the hard contact percentage is a little alarming at 38.4%. Cole Hamels is in the same boat, I’m probably more likely to use these pitchers than either offense, although they both have a lot of firepower.
MIL
5- star plays: Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Yelich is one of the best hitters in baseball and Braun crushes lefties, crushes Wrigley field, and crushes the Cubs, but that’s about it from this team.
CHC
5-star plays: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: The Cubs may get some ownership here, but I don’t think I’ll be one of them. Davies is able to limit runs with the best of em and Josh Hader is available for multiple innings toward the back end of the bullpen.
Chicago White Sox (+150) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-162)
I touched on Marcus Stroman earlier, and I like him a good bit here, so the White Sox offense is a no from me. The Jays on the other hand draw Ivan Nova and have an implied run total of 5.1. There are certainly some bats to target here, and I think Vlad Guerrero finally gets his first big league bomb today.
CHW
5- star plays: None
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: I like Stroman more
TOR
5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Justin Smoak, Rowdy Tellez
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Eric Sogard
GPP Note: One of the better contrarian stacks on the board
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Los Angeles Angels (+139) @ Baltimore Orioles (+128)
I will have a good amount of interest in both of these offenses, as I did last night as well. There is a bit of weather in the area, so keep an eye on the Weather Station for updates. I never really liked stacking the Angels, but with Ohtani back in the lineup it changes the whole look of this lineup and I’ll go back to the well here against Dylan Bundy.
LAA
5- star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Justin Bour, Andrelton Simmons, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: An implied total of 5.5 runs, what’s not to like?
BAL
5-star plays: Jonathon Villar, Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Dwight Smith Jr., Chris Davis
GPP Note: If you can’t afford the Angels, I like the O’s as a contrarian stack
Cleveland Indians (-137) @ Oakland Athletics (+126)
You won’t find me picking on Trevor Bauer here, I think he is one of the best, if not the best, pitcher in the game, so no Athletics exposure for me. The Indians draw a nice matchup with Aaron Brooks, but the issue is the massive ballpark.
CLE
5- star plays: None
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: One-offs and mini-stacks only
OAK
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I love Trevor Bauer
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
We don’t have a total on this game yet, and it’s not a part of the main or early slate, so we have time to wait on this one, but I would assume we’re waiting on the Rays to name a starting pitcher. I don’t really have a ton of interest in the Yankees, but the Rays offense is very good and gets CC Sabathia who is not what he once was.
NYY
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit
GPP Note: No thanks for the Yankees
TBR
5-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Avisail Garcia, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: I love the Rays offense this year, especially against a weak pitcher
Miami Marlins (+272) @ New York Mets (-302)
Jacob deGrom is probably the best pitching option on the entire day, as the Marlins have an implied run total of just 2.3 runs. deGrom has made one start already against the Marlines this season…. he scored 45.4 Draftkings points. He is a phenomenal option tonight. I actually believe in the talent of Alcantara, and the Mets ballpark plays more toward pitchers than people realize, so I’ll probably be underweight on them.
MIA
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: If you want to play the Marlins offense, send me a DM so I can set up a head to head with you.
NYM
5-star plays: Michael Conforto, Peter Alonso
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: There are better offenses on this slate
Philadelphia Phillies (-131) @ Kansas City Royals (+121)
Zach Eflin has pitched up and down this year and is actually much better at home, so maybe we can get the Royals low owned here. I really like the Royals offense on most days, but there’s an issue, that being their price tags. They are priced through the roof which will make them an MME stack only for me. The Phillies have an implied run total of almost five with a great offense against Brad Keller, sign me up.
PHI
5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto (DK)
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: I like the Phillies as a contrarian stack
KCR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: The prices of these guys are what drives me away
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Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
We don’t have a total on this game yet, I assume because we are waiting for the Rangers to announce a starting pitcher. It looks like it will probably be Jesse Chavez to open and Drew Smyly to follow. Get your Houston stacks ready, Smyly gives up a hard contact percentage of 58.5% which is insane. Don’t play the Rangers against Gerrit Cole.
TEX
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Don’t stack against Gerrit Cole
HOU
5-star plays: George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Tyler White, Josh Reddick
GPP Note: This is my favorite stack of the main slate if it is in fact Smyly
San Diego Padres (+125) @ Colorado Rockies (-135)
It’s always interesting when we get two competent pitchers in Coors like we do tonight with Lucchesi and Gray. I don’t know that I’ll be targeting either pitcher in this game, but I don’t think I’ll go crazy with bats either. Yes, it’s Coors field so the total is going to be big and I won’t blame you for going with the bats, but the only guys I’m prioritizing are Story and Arenado against a lefty.
SDP
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Definitely stackable, but I’ll likely go elsewhere given the prices
COL
5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Stackable as well
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
This is the second half of a doubleheader, so we may get a bit of a funky lineup so make sure to check out the Starting Lineups page before lock. It looks like Gregory Soto and Kohl Stewart will get the starts at pitcher, which is not great but is great for both offenses.
DET
5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum
GPP Note: May get more interested depending on the lineup they roll out
MIN
5-star plays: Mitch Garver (DK), Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Max Kepler, CJ Cron
GPP Note: I like the Twins once again
Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks
I like Kevin Gausman as a pitcher and the Dbacks lineup really doesn’t scare me, so he’s a viable pitching option. I do like the Braves in this ballpark especially if the roof is open. Merrill Kelly got beat up pretty bad in his last outing, so I’m willing to attack him again here.
ATL
5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: I like the Braves as a contrarian stack here
ARI
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar, Jarrod Dyson
GPP Note: I like Gausman more than the Dbacks offense
Cincinnati Reds (-122) @ San Francisco Giants (+113)
I don’t like targeting offenses in this ballpark. I have interest in both of them as an SP2 on two pitcher sites. DeSclafani has pitched great and gets a massive ballpark upgrade. Jeff Samardzija has pitched well at home this season and is worth a look.
CIN
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nick Senzel, Eugenio Saurez
GPP Note: One-offs only
SFG
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like Descalafni a good amount here
Washington Nationals (+112) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-121)
Any time Max Scherzer is on the mound you have to have interest, he is one of the best pitchers in the league. However, the Dodgers offense is great and I think I would rather just find the extra money for Jacob deGrom, but he’s an elite GPP play. Walker Buehler is no slouch either, I won’t have interest in a lot of bats here.
WASH
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: One-offs only
LAD
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy
GPP Note: One-offs only
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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