Hello again everyone! nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me on Twitter, Instagram, or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
Now, before we get too far into this one, let me first congratulate last night’s winner…
Awesome way to start the week! Congrats, and enjoy that $50,000!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
Mostly what we could expect to see, though it’s interesting to see Strasburg so high taking on the Brewers. That’ll be an interesting one to watch for sure. Lester gets a great matchup against the Marlins and tops the charts today, so be sure to take him into consideration today.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
Boston gets the best matchup on the slate today, so hopefully, they’ll do something with it this time around. We have some other good targets not too far behind, so you may want to consider them, too. Now that we now know a few teams to look at, we can use the classic batter sheet, coaches notes, or starting lineups page to find the individual targets.
Early slate
We’ll kick off this thing in Cleveland, where the White Sox and Indians will go for round two today. Vegas likes this one to have some decent offensive production, and after getting hammered yesterday, I expect to see the Indians a little fired up.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
White Sox 5 star plays – Anderson
White Sox 4 star plays – Moncada, Alonso
GPP note – Full stacks are in play here again
Indians 5 star plays – Lindor
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez (BvP), Santana
GPP note -Will be looking to return the favor after yesterday’s beat down
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
We have a couple of quality pitchers in this one, both of which have fairly high ceilings and could hold down the other team for a while. It might be best to pick and choose the better matchups in this one instead of relying on full stacks.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Haniger, Vogelbach
GPP note – Tougher matchup against Tanaka, but could still be worth some stacks
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Sanchez, Voit
GPP note – Could be a tough matchup for the Yankees too. I would prefer Seattle stacks in this one
Main slate
Texas Rangers at Pittsburgh Pirates
We have a couple of pitchers in this one that could get blown up, and two offenses that like to put up a bunch of runs (especially the Rangers). I’d lean more towards Texas in this one, but either side of this one could be stacked
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Andrus, DeShields, Santana
GPP note – Bombs away!!
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Frazier, Polanco, Bell
GPP note – Not quite as likely to go off, but they still have a high ceiling
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
After laying a bunch of duds yesterday (outside of Villar), both of these teams will look to get more of their offenses involved today. If either side of this one burned you yesterday, don’t fade them out of spite. Remember, baseball is funny, and they might just put up all those runs today that you expected last night.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts
Red Sox 4 star plays – Benintendi, Devers, Chavis
GPP note – Don’t be afraid to go right back to them today
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Smith Jr
GPP note – Same as above. They’re still in play
Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
We have a couple of good pitchers in this one too, but as the Twins have shown, they don’t really care who they face, they just like to score runs. The Blue Jays will have a much harder time with Berrios, so I would only go there if you’re feeling frisky.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario
GPP note – Sanchez is decent, but the Twins are still worth stacking
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Sogard, Grichuk
GPP note – Berrios isn’t easy to pick on, so be careful here
Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays
We get a funky pitching situation with this one; Arizona will use Clarke, who will be making his second appearance in 2019, and the Rays will be going with another bullpen game. The Diamondbacks aren’t overly scary as it is, so this could be a place for them to have a dud. We know the Rays are hot, so they’re always worth grabbing when you can.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Jones
GPP note – Likely to have a limited ceiling in this matchup
Rays 5 star plays – Pham
Rays 4 star plays – B Lowe, Choi, Diaz, N Lowe
GPP note – Get they a pretty fresh pitcher, and would love to give him a “welcome to 2019” game (stack away)
Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers
We might get to see the return of Ohtani in this one, so even if you don’t care for the Angels, it’ll still be worth tuning in to see him play again. As for the pitching, there’s nothing super special to make note of, though Norris has been decent from time to time.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Pujols, Simmons, Ohtani (?)
GPP note – If Ohtani plays, he’ll be eager to go deep right away. Stacks are certainly in play here
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Goodrum, Candelario
GPP note – While not as exciting, some exposure here couldn’t hurt
Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
Scherzer had himself quite a game last night, but it’s not easy to keep the Brewers down, so Strasburg will have his work cut out for him. Peralta is no stranger to allowing some runs, so Washington is firmly in play as well.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon(?), Kendrick, Eaton
GPP note – Peralta is a good pitcher to pick on for some stacks
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Shaw, Grandal
GPP note – Another tough matchup, but we know they have a high ceiling against just about anybody
Philadelphia Phillies at St Louis Cardinals
It’s Nola day, and he’ll get a crack at the Cardinals today. He’s definitely made some improvements from his rocky start, so look for him to have a bit of a breakout game here. Hudson lands right in the middle of the carnage report, but his xwOBA/wOBA numbers are alarming, so this could be a good spot for the Phillies to go bonkers. All in all, this one looks like it’s in favor of the Phillies.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper, Hoskins
Phillies 4 star plays – Realmuto, McCutchen
GPP note – Decent matchup for them to go off
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt, Carpenter
GPP note – Might have a limited ceiling against the improving Nola
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
Our carnage leader, Lester, will take the mound against the not-too-exciting Marlins. Smith has looked nothing short of excellent most of the season, so he’ll fire back at whatever Lester does to his club. Look for this to be a low-scoring pitcher’s duel.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Anderson
GPP note – Tough matchup against Lester and his super-low carnage rating
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Bryant, Rizzo
GPP note – Smith has been excellent, so the Cubs will likely have a limited ceiling in this one
Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros
My Royals fell a little short yesterday, but they certainly gave the Astros a run for their money. They’ll get another shot at it today against McHugh, who has been mostly good, but is a little easier to get to than Cole is. In other words, don’t be afraid to grab some KC stacks here. As for the Astros, they’ll get hit-or-miss Duffy, so they will be popular I’m sure.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Whitfield, Mondesi, Dozier
GPP note – Slightly better matchup today, but still difficult. Full stacks are in play, but aren’t as strong as other options
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve, Bregman, Springer
Astros 4 star plays – Correa, Brantley
GPP note – They’ll be popular, but if the bad Duffy shows up, they’ll go bonkers
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Ah, good ‘ol Coors. As usual, we have a bit to talk about here with our VIPs in our coaching channels, so I can’t get into much detail here. Sorry!
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Crawford
GPP note – ???
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Story
GPP note – ???
More NASCAR dominance. Congrats, suntszu!
Cincinnati Reds at Oakland Athletics
The Reds have started to come to life, and they’ll test their luck on Fiers, somebody who is no stranger getting lit up from time to time. They’ll deploy Mahle, who isn’t overly dominant by any means, so this game could have some action. It’s funny to think that the Reds might actually get more ownership than the Athletics in this one, but it might just happen. Anyway, stack away!
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Suarez, Winker, Senzel
GPP note – This team has started clicking, so they’ll look to keep it going against a pitcher who is prone to giving up some runs. Stacks are in play
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Davis, Chapman, Semien
GPP note – Also in play, but may go a little overlooked on this slate
New York Mets at San Diego Padres
Syndergaard will take his 3.24 carnage rating to San Diego, where he’ll face a Padres team that isn’t overly scary outside of Manny. Like he showed last week, he has elite upside, and he’ll look to build on his dominant performance last week. The Mets will face Quantrill, who looked decent in his debut, but we don’t know enough about him to know what he’s made of on this level. Some Mets stacks are squarely in play.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – McNeil, Conforto, Alonso
GPP note – Stacks are in play here against the newer Quantrill
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – none….Manny? Hosmer?
GPP note – Likely to have a limited ceiling here
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
And finally, we have our hammer game, which will feature two pitchers that have looked pretty good for most of 2019. I could see this one staying a low-scoring game until after the starters are finished, which could really hamper any stacks from these teams.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Donaldson, Acuna
GPP note – May have a fairly limited ceiling against Ryu
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Bellinger, Turner, Freese
GPP note – Fried has looked sharp and I could see him shutting down this offense for 6-7 innings
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 1:
Lots of studs here, but Betts and his excellent matchup against Hess stand above the others. I would go to him for cash games, but you could make a case for any of the other ones for GPP. Hoskins has some scary looking numbers, so Hudson had better be on his game!
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
If you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. As you saw, we cover (and win!) all sports, not just the common ones. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all have a great week!
