Hello again everyone! nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me on Twitter, Instagram, or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
Not much of a surprise here, but Snell leads the way once again, and Cole isn’t too far behind. Those are likely to be the chalk tonight, so we could default to them for cash games. We can also see that Paddack and Gausman are up there too, so we could consider them as GPP pivots.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
Not a big surprise here either. The Rays have been hot and they aren’t facing a stud by any means. The Cubs are always a threat to put up a bunch of runs, and they draw the best carnage rating matchup on the slate. Washington is only a few ticks behind them, so we could look at them as well. We now know a few teams to look at, and the classic batter sheet, coaches notes, or starting lineups page are all great places to look to find the individual targets.
Early slate
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
We kick things off today with what could be a pitcher’s duel, and the same could be said about all three of the early games. None of them have a pitcher with a carnage rating worse than 4.75, which could very well lead to some low-scoring games. As such, we’ll need to be sure to be more decisive in our batter selection, as stacking may not be the way to go for these games.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt (BvP), Crawford, Duggar
GPP note – They like to string together a bunch of little hits, so full stacks might not be best here. I would lean towards targetting guys with higher ceilings like Belt
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Suarez
GPP note – Not much to love here. Very little BvP (Iglesias has one homer, but that’s it) and Pomeranz has a 3.23 carnage rating. Maybe a one-off or two, but that’s about it
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
Surprisingly, Bauer doesn’t have the best carnage rating on this slate, but he definitely has the highest ceiling. Nova has the worst one (that 4.75 I mentioned earlier), as well as the worst wOBA and SIERA, so Cleveland may be one of the only stacks we can be very excited about for these games. It is a divisional game, though, so anything could happen.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson, Moncada, Alonso
GPP note – Tough matchup. Contrarian stacks only
Indians 5 star plays – Lindor
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Santana, Martin/Naquin (BvP)
GPP note – Full stacks are in play here, especially the lefties
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
While both of these pitchers have had their ups and downs, the carnage report likes them both to have solid outings today, so like the first game, we may want to consider more one-offs and mini-stacks over full-blown stacks. What’s really interesting is that for how long these two have been around, there’s really not much BvP history here for either side. This could definitely be a bit of an underwhelming game for the offenses.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Haniger, Encarnacion
GPP note – Sabathia is pretty good at mitigating damage, so full stacks might not be the best approach against him
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Sanchez, Voit
GPP note – I like one-offs here, especially those with higher ceilings like Sanchez
Some NBA action, DFS Army style. Congrats, RoyalRanksDFS!
Main slate
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Oh boy, this one could get out of hand really fast! We have two not-so-studly pitchers at Camden Yards, one of the best hitting ballparks in the game today. We have the Red Sox on one side, a team that has recently started firing on all cylinders. On the other side, we have a Baltimore team that while not quite as dangerous, is still a threat to have a big game, especially given the scenario. Feel free to stack both sides of this one.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts
Red Sox 4 star plays – Chavis, and really, everybody else
GPP note – Bombs away!
Orioles 5 star plays – Smith Jr
Orioles 4 star plays – Mancini, Villar
GPP note – Fire in the hole!
Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
This one looks to be a bit calmer, especially with Stroman pitching at home. He’s not unhittable by any means, but he’s a tough one to rally against. Perez has held his own pretty well, so taking a few pieces here and there may be the best approach to this one.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario
GPP note – Smaller stacks or one-offs may be the best approach to attacking Stroman
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Sogard, Smoak, Hernandez (some BvP)
GPP note – Same as the Twins
Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays
Enter chalky pitcher #1, Blake Snell. He’s probably not too happy about getting beat up by my Royals in his last outing (I was pretty happy though!!), and I would hate to be the one to have to face him after that. He’s got a 10+ strikeout ceiling in this matchup, so you may just want to default to him in cash. Jones is the only one with any luck against him, so if you want to make some contrarian stacks, be sure to include him.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Jones (BvP, GPP only)
GPP note – Likely to have a very limited ceiling going up against Snell
Rays 5 star plays – Pham
Rays 4 star plays – B Lowe, Choi, N Lowe
GPP note – Have never seen Kelly but can explode at a moment’s notice against almost anybody
Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
I’ve been waiting for this one all season! Mad Max will take on the Brewers at their house, in what should be a very interesting game. This is as close to an “unstoppable force vs immovable object” matchup that we’ll see for a while, so be sure to tune into this one. For DFS purposes, it’s pretty likely that one side of this one will be pretty high scoring, so if you can’t decide which way to go, you may want to build enough lineups to cover both scenarios.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Eaton, Kendrick
GPP note – Good matchup against Chacin, so don’t forget about them
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Grandal
GPP note – High risk (10+ stikeouts), high reward (10+ runs)
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are on a roll, so don’t forget about them in this slate full of potentially explosive games. Hamels has looked pretty good, so I don’t love Miami’s chances at a big game, but it’s not impossible either, so they make a decent pivot option for GPP stacking.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Anderson, Prado (BvP)
GPP note – Low-owned stack with a low chance of going off
Cubs 5 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant
Cubs 4 star plays – Literally everybody else
GPP note – Anything from one-offs to full-blown stacks are in order here
If you couldn’t tell by now, I love showing off our NASCAR wins. Good job everybody!
Philadelphia Phillies at St Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals head home to lick their wounds after dropping a few games to their rivals, and they’ll be eager to take it out on Velasquez. They’re bound to be overlooked here, so this makes another decent spot to grab a low-owned stack with some legitimate upside. As for the Phillies, they have a good matchup too, so the green light is on for them, too.
Phillies 5 star plays – Hoskins, Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – McCutchen, Realmuto
GPP note – Stack away or grab a one-off here and there
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Carpenter, DeJong, Wong (BvP)
GPP note – Low-owned stack with a decent chance of going off
Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros
My Royals head to Houston to take on Cole and the Astros, and well…it doesn’t look very good for us! They can definitely strike out in bunches, and Cole is capable of getting 10+ strikeouts, so he’s bound to be chalky with how much Vegas loves him. For GPP, you could consider stacking them, as they have shown they can go off against top-tier talent, and they won’t garner a whole lot of ownership. As for the Astros, be a little careful, as Junis can throw 7 solid innings if he’s on his game. If he’s off, well..he’ll probably only last an inning or two.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Mondesi, Dozier, Gordon
GPP note – Likely to be limited here, but a contrarian stack is in play
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve, Springer, Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Brantley, Correa (BvP)
GPP note – Full stacks are in play but watch out for the random Junis gem that destroys GPP dreams
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
This game features two potent offenses going up against two pitchers that can’t decide if they’re struggling or having a good year. It’s kind of a coin-flip as to what will happen here, but I’m leaning more towards the bats making some noise.
Braves 5 star plays – Albies
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Acuna, Donaldson
GPP note – Less likely to go off than the Dodgers are, but they’re still very much in play. Acuna has been on a homer-less dry spell…..
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner/Freese (BvP), Pederson
GPP note – Stack it up and hope Gausman is in gascan mode again tonight
New York Mets at San Diego Padres
And finally, we have our hammer game, which looks to be more like a foam noodle (outside of the pitchers, at least). With a whopping 6.5 implied runs, Vegas is loving the pitching here, and for good reason. Both pitchers are capable of shutting down the other team for a while, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see this one end with only a couple of runs scored. A one-off here or there might be okay, but I would avoid stacking this one (unless you want to stack the pitchers, of course).
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – McNeil, Conforto, Cano
GPP note – Mostly a pass, but a one-off might be okay
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Hosmer/Myers?
GPP note – Same as above
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 2 for the main slate:
For my money, Brantley is the easy cash game option here, but there are some decent looking GPP pivots and fades.
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
If you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. As you saw, we cover (and win!) all sports, not just the common ones. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all have a great week!
