Hello again everyone! nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me on Twitter, or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
We have a few not-so-surprising pitchers here, namely Verlander and Greinke. They’ll be among the most popular today in all formats, so you can default to one of them for cash games. Gonzalez and Strahm are in good spots too, so look to them for your GPP lineups. Our mystery man beats them all, but only DFS Army members will know who he is!
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
There are a lot of juicy targets today, and I’ll share a few of them with you guys. A couple are a little surprising, so I’ll keep those from our VIPs, as well as the top rating of the day. As usual, we can use the classic batter sheet, coaches notes, or starting lineups page to find our favorite individual targets.
Colorado Rockies at Pittsburg Pirates
We’ll kick off things today with the Rockies and Pirates, where we’ll see Marquez and Archer take the mound. Both pitchers are capable of big games, though as we saw earlier, the Rockies are in a pretty good spot against Archer here, so I’d lean towards Marquez if you’re wanting a pitcher from this one.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Dahl, Story
GPP note – Good matchup against Archer, and the Rockies are usually under-owned when they’re not at Coors
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Bell, Polanco
GPP note – Tough matchup against Marquez, so be careful with the stacks
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Next up is another round of some Yankees on Orioles action, but I’m not too confident in the Orioles having as much production with German on the mound. He’s certainly a good GPP option, but no, he’s not the mystery man. The Yankees have the second-highest carnage rating on the board, so look to them to do some more damage here.
Yankees 5 star plays – Sanchez
Yankees 4 star plays – Voit, Torres, Morales
GPP note – Bombs away!
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Smith Jr
GPP note – Much more difficult matchup here going against German, so you may want to temper expectations today
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
Next in line are the Phillies and Cubs, who will pitchers on two different ends of the carnage rating scale today. As we saw earlier, the Cubs have one of the better matchups today against Eflin, while Quintana is closer to the other side of the chart. I’m approaching this game exactly the same way that I did yesterday.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Hoskins, Realmuto, Harper, McCutchen
GPP note – Another not-so-great matchup again today, so we may want to stay with the one-offs or mini-stacks here
Cubs 5 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant
Cubs 4 star plays – Schwarber, Heyward, Baez
GPP note – Pretty good matchup here again, and even though they didn’t go off the rails yesterday, I have no problem going right back to them
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Rodriguez and Stroman will face off here, and if it weren’t for them being the Red Sox, I would say this one could turn into a pitcher’s duel. Stroman will probably hold his own for a while, but it’s hard to keep this team down, so he’ll have his work cut out for him.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Betts, Martinez, Benintendi, Bogaerts, Moreland
GPP note – Not the best matchup against Stroman, but you can still stack here
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero, Sogard, Smoak
GPP note – Rodriguez can be hit or miss at times, so if you stack here, go hard
Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers
A game that could wind up being a low-scoring pitcher’s duel, however, is this one that features Smith and Turnbull. Both have shown high floors and ceilings all season long, so look to them as good pitching options. As for the bats, well…meh.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Anderson?
GPP note – Not much to love here
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Goodrum?
GPP note – Not a whole lot to love here, either
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
A bullpen game is on the horizon for our next game, where we’ll see Wheeler take on the Nationals. He’s been a decent GPP option throughout the season, so don’t be afraid to take some shots with him here.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Eaton, Turner
GPP note – Not a very good matchup against Wheeler, so I can’t say I love full stacks here
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Cano, McNeil, Alonso
GPP note – Bullpen games can be hit or miss, so approach this one with some caution
Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays
Another bullpen game here, we’ll at least get an ace on the other side. Kershaw’s carnage rating is a little higher than usual (3.77), but I guess it shouldn’t be too surprising since the Rays aren’t exactly a pushover. Regardless, he’s still in play, as we know the kind of ceiling he has when he’s on his game.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgrs 4 star plays – Pederson, Muncy, Turner
GPP note – It’s a bullpen game from team that started this trend, so it’s hard telling what we should expect. I would go full throttle or full fade
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham
GPP note – Tough matchup against Kershaw, though this has been known to up their game when in a difficult matchup
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers return home to host the reds, and we’ll see a couple of capable pitchers square off. Both of them are capable of decently high ceilings, though Gray will have a much harder time finding his. We know what these Brewers can do, especially at home.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Senzel, Votto
GPP note – Not a great matchup against Gonzalez, who is looking much better so far this year than he did last season
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Braun, Grandal
GPP note – Gray has looked good too, but this team is almost always in play
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
It’s another Mariners/Rangers game, which will probably lead to a bunch of runs again. Seriously, what is it with these two teams? They can’t help but go bonkers against one another. Anyway, both sides are in play again here, as usual.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Vogelbach, Narvaez, Haniger, Encarnacion
GPP note – Harder matchup against Lynn, but I’m sure they’ll find a way, especially the lefties
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Pence, Gallo, Choo, Forsythe
GPP note – All aboard the pain train
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
Our next ace today, Verlander, will take on the White Sox today, who will send Covey to the slaughterhou…I mean pitcher’s mound to face the Astros. Needless to say, all eyes will be on the Houston offense, while we can expect the Whtie Sox to be very limited today.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Moncada/Alonso?
GPP note – Bound to have a very limited ceiling today
Astros 5 star plays – Springer, Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Brantley, Correa, everybody else
GPP note – They’re going to try and outscore the Mariners and Rangers combined, and they might just do it
Kansas City Royals at St Louis Cardinals
The I-70 series is up next, where my Royals will travel across the state east to face the Cardinals. Both pitchers have looked pretty good, though we know this rivalry can make the bats seem like they are much bigger than they really are.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Mondesi, Merrifield, Gordon, Dozier
GPP note – Nobody likes to stack my Royals, so look here if you want a lower-owned stack with a high ceiling
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Carpenter, Goldschmidt, DeJong, Martinez
GPP note – Bailey has looked surprisingly good this season, but this will be a difficult matchup for him. They’ll be a popular stack, so do what you will with that
Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
New guy Shaun Anderson is up next, and he won’t get an easy matchup for his first outing this season. He’ll face a talented Braves team, and I don’t think this pitcher’s park will save him from what they’re capable of. Do you remember me droning on about Acuna yesterday? Hope you played him!
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Riley, Swanson
GPP note – They’ll get a new pitcher in his debut, so feel free to stack here again
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Panik, Crawford
GPP note – Teheran doesn’t have the floor that Soroka provided, but his ceiling isn’t too far off. The Giants could be limited here again
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels
The first of our late games will feature two capable offenses going up against two pitchers that have shown plenty of struggle this season, so look to this game for some offensive firepower from both ends. The Twins certainly have the higher ceiling here, but the Angels are no slouches.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco, Kepler, Rosario
GPP note – Don’t be surprised if they go bonkers here. Stack away!
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, La Stella, Calhoun
GPP note – After that dud last night, they’ll look to get their offense back in gear in a good matchup against Pineda
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
And finally, our hammer game features Greinke and Strahm, two pitchers that could limit the other team like we saw last night. Greinke has the higher floor/ceiling between the two, but don’t overlook Strahm, as he’s certainly in play here too. I don’t feel too great about the bats here, and would prefer to look elsewhere for them.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Marte, Peralta
GPP note – Somewhat tough matchup against Strahm who has looked pretty good. I’d prefer one-offs or mini-stacks
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Hosmer, Machado
GPP note – Tough matchup against Greinke, who can limit them just like Weaver did
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 1 on the late slate:
Bregman and Trout are both in good spots here, so look to them for all formats. Gallo is typically a LvR target, though he’s starting to hit lefties pretty well too. Pence has looked really good lately too, and has some huge numbers in his recent performances.
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
If you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. As you saw, we cover (and win!) all sports, not just the common ones. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all have a great day!
