Hello again everyone! nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me on Twitter, or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
Paddack and Peacock both find their way to the top today, and both of them will probably be popular cash game options. Weaver gets a tougher matchup, though the strikeout potential is higher, so we could look at him for tournaments if we don’t want to go there in cash.
Our mystery man looks pretty good for GPP too, and I can all but guarantee that he won’t be a popular choice today. Who is he? Only DFS Army members will know!
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
We have a few good options here, but as we’ll see later in the article, Arrieta and Odorizzi have been decent against righties, so be sure to attack them from the other side of the plate. Leake hasn’t been very good against either side, so both sides are in play for the Rangers.
Early slates
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
We’ll kick things off with one of our showdown games, where the Red Sox will travel up north to take on Jackson and the Blue Jays. Price will be on the mound for the visitors, and he’ll look to continue his solid start to the season in this good matchup. Jackson has only thrown one game so far, so it’s hard to know where he’ll be, but we know this Boston team can do some serious damage when they’re on.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Martinez, Betts
Red Sox 4 star plays – Benintendi, Bogaerts, Moreland
GPP note – It’s still early in the season for Jackson, so this would be a good time to attack him
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Smoak, Sogard
GPP note – Tough matchup against Price who has the BvP advantage against this team. One-offs would probably be best here
Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Indians
Our second early game will feature one of today’s top pitchers, Carrasco, and he’ll take on the Athletics who have been to put on a strikeout party. Needless to say, Carrasco has a very high ceiling here, so if you’re playing a slate with this game on it, don’t overlook him. The Indians will face Anderson, who has mostly been a coin-flip every single game, so it’s hard telling what we’ll get here. We know the Indians are pretty hit or miss too, so you’ll have to either take a stand for one side or the other, or be smart and hedge with exposure to both sides to be covered if one side lights up the stat sheet.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Davis, Olson
GPP note – Tough matchup against Carrasco, but he’s prone to the occasional implosion. If you want to attack him, attack him hard with full stacks and hope he has an off day
Indians 5 star plays – Lindor
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Santana, Luplow
GPP note – Anderson is pretty hit or miss, so be sure to attack him with big stacks to take advantage of a bad outing, should he have one here
Main slate
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick this one off with…another Yankees/Orioles game. They at least play at Camden Yards this time around, so that could make things more interesting. Anyway, both teams get a nice hitter’s park here, so look for this game to be a little popular (especially on the Yankees side).
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Hicks, Voit, Sanchez
GPP note – This is a fun ballpark to hit home runs at, so stack away
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Smith Jr
GPP note – Tougher matchup for the Orioles, but Happ isn’t invincible, so you can grab some contrarian stacks here
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
Washington heads up to New York for this bullpen matchup against Gagnon and the Mets. They’ll send Corbin to the mound, who almost always has one of the highest ceilings on any slate, so look for him to be a popular choice today. As for the Washington bats, plenty of them are in play here, as the Mets don’t exactly have a terrifying bullpen.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Eaton, Turner, Kendrick
GPP note – Bullpen games are harder to predict, but stacks are still in play here
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso
GPP note – Tough matchup against Corbin who can quickly go on a strikeout spree. Stack with caution
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
I might be a little tired of seeing NYY/BAL, but these two teams are a lot more interesting to watch. They tend to blow up one another, so look here for some fantasy goodness in all formats. The Mariners will have the tougher matchup against Minor, as he put a huge hurting on them back in April, but they will be looking to return the favor here.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Encarnacion, Haniger, Santana
GPP note – Minor had a huge game against them before, so stacking here is risky, but could be very rewarding if they can get to him this time around
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Gallo, Calhoun, Choo, Odor
GPP note – Good matchup for a team that likes to put up a ton of runs against the opposing team. Stack away!
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
Next up are two teams that are loaded with talent, going up against two pitchers that are very talented but have had some struggles. Darvish has a pretty high ceiling when he’s on, but a very low floor when he’s not . Arrieta hasn’t looked super great, but perhaps a trip back to his old home will spark something for him.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Hoskins, Segura
GPP note – When Darvish is bad, he’s really bad, so if you go here, be sure to go big
Cubs 5 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant
Cubs 4 star plays – Schwarber, Baez, Heyward
GPP note – Basically the same as above, but watch out for the “returning home” narrative
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
The Astros return home and will host the White Sox today, along with Detwiler in his 2019 debut. It’s hard telling what we’ll see out of him here, but we know how dangerous this Astros team can be, so don’t be too surprised if you see them unload on him. The White Sox will face Peacock, who has looked pretty solid most of the season, and he’ll look to keep that going again today. The Astros look to have the advantage on all fronts here.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson, Moncada, Abreu
GPP note – Tough matchup against Peacock. I’d prefer one-offs or small stacks here, as Peacock is decent at mitigating damage
Astros 5 star plays – Springer, Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Correa, Gurriel
GPP note – A bit of an unknown going up against a fresh pitcher, but when this team is hot, it almost doesn’t matter who is pitching. Full stacks are absolutley in play here
Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
We get another new pitcher here, Suarez, who will take on this talented Braves team. This is a pitcher’s park, but there are some pretty powerful bats here, so don’t let that sway you from stacking them. The Giants will face Soroka, who has been tough on opposing offenses, so there’s not a whole lot to love there.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Swanson, Riley, Freeman
GPP note – Another new pitcher, but the Braves are certainly in play here. Acuna seems to have found his groove again at the lead-off spot
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Panik
GPP note – Soroka has been solid and this team tends to spread out fantasy production, so I’m not digging stacks here today
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels
The dangerous Twins travel to LA for a bullpen game (?) against the Angels, and they’ll deploy Odorizzi who has been pretty good at limiting right-handed batters. The Twins definitely have the upper hand here, so look to them for most of the fireworks in this one.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario
GPP note – Another mostly unknown pitching situation, but like the Astros, this team can go bonkers at a moment’s notice. Stack away
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – La Stella, Ohtani, Calhoun, Trout
GPP note – Lefties are the way to go here
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
And finally, our hammer game, which features two of the top pitchers on the slate today. This would be a great place to look for some pitchers, but I can’t say I’m too excited about the bats here. Still, contrarian stacks are always in play, so if you want some lower owned stacks, look no further.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Peralta, Escobar, Marte
GPP note – Contrarian stacks only
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Hosmer, Machado
GPP note – Contrarian stacks only
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 1:
There are a lot of interesting things to note here. Bryant is crushing righties, though Arrieta has been pretty decent against them. Springer and Bregman get a new pitcher, so there are some unknowns there, though either one of them are fine for cash games. Trout isn’t hitting righties very well, nor is Odorizzi allowing much to them, so he’s a good fade candidate today since we know he’ll always have some ownership in GPP.
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
If you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. As you saw, we cover (and win!) all sports, not just the common ones. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all have a great day!
