Hello again everyone! nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me on Twitter, or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
Another NASCAR race, another DFS Army winner. Congrats, jokerwins!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
Peacock gets the honor here as the highest on the report, and for good reason. He’s looked sharp and the Tigers aren’t exactly a threatening offense right now. Add in the fact that they have basically no BvP history against him, and you get a solid option for all formats today.
Bieber gets the White Sox today, and while they are definitely a threat to go bananas against almost anybody, both the carnage report and Vegas favor him today. Because it is a more questionable matchup, I’d probably lean towards Peacock for cash games today, just to play it a little safer. Of course, you could always grab Berrios or Ray for cash games too, but Peacock is an excellent option either way.
And finally, our mystery man! Based on his matchup, I don’t expect him to have a lot of ownership today, even on a small slate. That said, I think he can help somebody win a tournament tonight (hopefully another DFS Army member), so we’ll see how this one plays out.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Since there are so few games, I can’t show too many secrets today, but it shouldn’t be too surprising that the Astros get the best carnage rating on the slate today. As usual, we can use the classic batter sheet, coaches notes, or starting lineups page to find the individual targets.
Early slate
Our early bird game features some questionable looking weather at the moment, so keep an eye on that one. Hopefully it clears out by tomorrow, but you just never know. As for the game, Loaisiga is heavily favored (the carnage report favors him too, but I didn’t have him on the one above since this game isn’t on the main slate), so look for Baltimore to have a bit of a capped ceiling here. Even with some pieces missing, Vegas likes the Yankees to do some damage here.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mancini
GPP note – Contrarian stacks only
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Voit, Sanchez, LeMahieu
GPP note – This will be where you’ll want to load up on some bats, but be creative so you don’t tie with everybody else on this showdown slate
Main slate
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
The Brewers and Phillies head to Philadelphia for this mashup of raw talent, and this should be a fun series to watch. Nola gets the nod for game one, and while it is Nola, he’s had some issues allowing some hits, which is something you don’t want to do against this Brewers team. The Phillies look to get a bullpen game which could be good for them too, so don’t be too surprised to see a bit of a shootout here.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Shaw
GPP note – Nola is Nola, but he’s allowed plenty of hits, so stacks are in play here (as usual)
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper, Hoskins
Phillies 4 star plays – McCutchen, Realmuto
GPP note – Bullpen game. Full stacks are good to go here, too
Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers
As I touched on earlier, this one is pretty easy to read; the Astros are hot are can put up a ton of runs in a hurry, while Peacock has a good matchup against the Tigers. Look for lots of fantasy production out of the Astros, and tread lightly with the contrarian picks from the Tigers.
Astros 5 star plays – Springer, Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Brantley, Correa, Gurriel
GPP note – Boyd has been good, but the Astros can blow up anybody right now
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Goodrum?
GPP note – Contrarian stacks only. Tread lightly
Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins
We get Berrios at home here, where he’s been very good (to be fair, he’s been good everywhere), but the Angels aren’t a pushover, so they’ll look to pull an upset here. Skaggs has looked mostly good but this will be a difficult matchup for him. If you give these Twins an inch, they’ll blow you up and put 10+ runs on the board in just a few innings, so keep Skaggs away from your cash games today.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, La Stella, Calhoun
GPP note – Berrios has been sharp, so GPP only here. Full stacks are certainly in play though, just don’t go overboard
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Garver, Polanco, Rosario, Cron
GPP note – Skaggs has been good, but the Twins can go bonkers against him if he opens the door at all. If you go here, go with full stacks
Another NASCAR winner from a 3-max entry tournament. Congrats, kickingass30!
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
We get a rematch here, as these pitchers faced off against each other last Wednesday. While the Indians won the game, both pitchers gave up plenty of hits, which would make me want to take any shots with them over on FanDuel as opposed to DraftKings, so that all of those pesky hits won’t hurt their upside too much. This one really could go either way, so I’m more inclined to keep any exposure to this game in my GPP lineups rather than my cash ones.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Ramirez, Santana, Kipnis
GPP note – Full stacks are certainly in play here
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson, Moncada, Alonso
GPP note – Full stacks are in play here too and will probably be lower-owned than most
Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks
This is another game that looks to be a little one-sided, this time for the home team Diamondbacks. Kingham hasn’t looked very good all season, and we’ll probably only see him for an inning or two before the bullpen takes over. That could give Arizona some good chances at putting up some runs, and since it’s been a while since they’ve done that, they could use the morale boost. Ray has looked sharp and will probably make life difficult for the Pirates today, so you can look to him as an option for all formats on either site.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Bell, Frazier
GPP note – Tough matchup against Ray, who has been building a lot of momentum recently
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Peralta, Jones, Dyson, Escobar, Marte
GPP note – Blow-up spot for the Diamondbacks, so stay away
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
And finally, our hammer game features two dangerous offenses that are just ready to go off against one another again. Fiers is coming off of a magical performance against the Reds, but remember that it was the Reds. Don’t roster him expecting similar results here, as this Seattle offense is much more potent and capable. Both pitchers are GPP-only options, as either team is capable of sending the other one to the showers early.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Davis, Semien, Chapman, Piscotty
GPP note – If you go here, stack big
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Vogelbach, Haniger, Narvaez, Gordon, Bruce
GPP note – Same as above. If they go off, they’ll probably go off as a unit, so stack ’em
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 1:
With how hot he and the Astros have been, it’s hard to not just take Springer in cash, though Yelich is always an option too. Trout is hitting well, but we know Berrios is a tough customer, especially at home. Rhys has a great matchup and I’m sure he’ll be the lowest owned of the group (hint hint!)
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
If you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. As you saw, we cover (and win!) all sports, not just the common ones. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all have a great day!
