Hello again everyone! nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me on Twitter, or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
Most of these shouldn’t be too surprising, but I did want to leave off the highest rated pitcher and save him for DFS Army members. I think the most interesting one here is German, since he does have a difficult matchup against the Rays, but the carnage rating certainly likes him better in this matchup. Anyway, look for these pitchers to put up some good scores tonight.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
Lots of juicy targets today! There are a couple that I wanted to save for DFS Arm members, so I had to leave them out, but there are four others for you guys and gals to feast on (and no, neither of the mystery teams are playing at Coors). Now that we now know a few teams to look at, we can use the classic batter sheet, coaches notes, or starting lineups page to find the individual targets.
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off with our Camden Yards game, which as you just saw, features one of our juicy matchups with the Angels taking on Straily. You can’t go wrong with a matchup like that, so feel free to splurge a little in this one.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Pujols, La Stella, Ohtani
GPP note – Bombs away!
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Smith Jr, Mancini
GPP note – Don’t forget about these guys
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Though they aren’t showing up in the “super juicy” section of the carnage report, we have two teams here in spots to go off, so both are worth considering for tonight. I’d probably shy away from the pitching in this one, as there are better options out there.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson, Abreu, Moncda, Alonso
GPP note – An explosive team gets a decent matchup. Could be a spot for them to go off
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Sogard, Smoak, Tellez
GPP note – Pretty good matchup here for a team we don’t look at to stack very often
Miami Marlins at New York Mets
It’s not deGrom or Thor, but we do get Wheeler in a pretty good spot against the Marlins, and he’s one of my top options tonight. One the other side, Lopez gets the Mets who aren’t exactly a super-threatening team, so I can’t say I have too much interest in the batters in this one.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Granderson, Anderson
GPP note – Tough matchup against Wheeler. Full stacks may not be the way to go
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Conforto, McNeil
GPP note -Not a very exciting matchup for these guys, either
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
We get two of, if not the, most consistent and difficult pitchers in all of baseball in this one. Vegas has this one at a 7 implied total, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the under play out. Needless to say, the batters in this one don’t interest me much at all.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Sanchez, Voit
GPP note – Very difficult matchup against one of baseball’s best pitchers this year
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, Lowe
GPP note – Also has a difficult matchup with a limited ceiling
Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox
Seattle will head to Boston to take on Rodriguez, who has looked pretty good after a couple of tough starts. Seattle can certainly put up some runs in a hurry, but they’ll have a harder time doing it tonight. As for the Red Sox, we know they’re capable of big games, and they’ll get a fairly easy target to have another one. All in all, this one looks like a good place for all of Boston to have a good game.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Encarnacion, Santana
GPP note – Tough matchup, might have a limited ceiling if Rodriguez continues his recent performances
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Benintendi, Moreland, Chavis
GPP note – Another good matchup for a team that can put up some big numbers in a hurry
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
It seems that whenever these two teams meet up, fireworks go off. However, seeing that Verlander and Lynn are pitching, we might not see them this time around. I’d give the nod to Houston going off if I had to choose between them, but don’t be surprised to see this one play to the under.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Mazara
GPP note – Very difficult matchup and a limited ceiling
Astros 5 star plays – Springer, Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Brantley, Correa
GPP note – Better matchup than what Texas gets, but still not a very good one compared to other teams. Still, it’s Houston, and you can always stack them
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
We get a fun divisional game here, but like the Boston game, this one has Twins written on it for both pitching and batting. Odorizzi has been pretty good, where Ross has not, so I’d probably avoid anything Detroit for cash games. The Twins, on the other hand, could be a good place to look for both cash games and GPP alike.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Goodrum, Candelario
GPP note – Not the best matchup out there, but they like to go off against divisional rivals
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Cruz
GPP note – Good matchup for them at home, where they like to put on a show for the crowd
Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals
I’m really excited for this one, and I’ll get a great view of it behind home dugout. That’s right, yours truly has a date at The K today, and the after party is at Kansas Speedway tomorrow for the cup race. Can’t wait! Anyway, as far as the game goes, it’s hard to say exactly how I think this one will play out. On one hand we have two pitchers who have looked pretty good for the most part, but on the other, we have two offenses that we know can go bonkers in a hurry. It might be best to take a little bit of each side of this one, or take a stand somewhere and go heavy. Either way, this should be a fun one!
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper, Hoskins
Phillies 4 star plays – McCutchen, Realmuto
GPP note – 2019 Bailey isn’t 2018 Bailey, but this team could certainly make him look like it today
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Mondesi, Dozier
GPP note -Tough matchup here, but they love putting on a good show Friday nights at The K
Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis Cardinals
We get a couple of mid-tier pitchers here, one of which tends to be pretty tough at home. He’ll get a good matchup against the Pirates as well, and makes a decent GPP option for large field tournaments. As for the Cardinals, they exploded yesterday, so it might not be a terrible idea to grab a few shares while they’re still on a high.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Polanco, Frazier
GPP note – A bit of a tough matchup facing Wainwright. Might have a limited ceiling for full stacks, but one-offs might be okay
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Goldschmidt, Carpenter, DeJong
GPP note – A little bit better matchup than they had yesterday, and they couldn’t stop scoring then
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
Ah, Coors! As usual, I’ll reserve my thoughts for this one, as we go over it in more detail in our coaching channels for our VIP members.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer
GPP note – Tough matchup against Marquez
Rockies 5 star plays – Arenado, Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Reynolds
GPP note – Going to be a popular stack tonight
Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics
Another game that looks like it may favor one side over the other, Oakland gets a good matchup against Anderson, while the Indians, who haven’t had a big game in a while, will face Montas, who has done a pretty good job holding offenses down. Look to Oakland for some good scoring in this one.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Ramirez, Santana
GPP note – Not the best matchup, but it could still be worth stacking this talented team
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Davis, Semien, Chapman
GPP note – Stacks of all sizes are in play here
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Braves will face Greinke at home, where he’s particularly dangerous. They’ve seemed to struggle a bit against pitchers capable of big games, so they’ll have their work cut out for them here. Things won’t be a whole lot easier for the Diamondbacks, as they’ll face Teheran, who isn’t a stranger of 7+ strikeout games. All in all, this game could easily play towards the under, so I can’t say I’m a big fan of full stacks with these teams.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Albies, Acuna
GPP note – Difficult matchup, so expect them to be very boom or bust (leaning towards bust)
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Peralta, Jones
GPP note – Difficult matchup here too. Full stacks may have a pretty low ceiling
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Surprisingly, Sanchez has been the better pitcher this year, as Maeda has been anything but consistent. One thing we can say, however, is that his two home games have been great, so he at least has that going for him here. Still, Washington can put up some runs in a hurry if the opposing pitcher isn’t on their game, so attacking Maeda isn’t a terrible idea. You don’t need me to tell you to stack the Dodgers, as they’re capable of going off against just about anybody.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Kendrick, Eaton
GPP note – Maeda has been good at home, but his inconsistencies could catch up with him today
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Muncy, Taylor
GPP note – Dodgers stacks are always in play
Cinncinati Reds at San Francisco Giants
And finally, our hammer game is…..the Reds and Giants. The Reds have had their way with bad pitching lately, so they could do some damage here, but the Giants will get a tough matchup against Castillo, so it’s hard to say there’s much to love for the home team here.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Suarez, Winker
GPP note – Tend to exploit bad pitching, so they could shake up the leaderboards late at night
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Duggar
GPP note – Tough matchup against Castillo, who will probably put a hard cap on this team’s ceiling
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 4:
We can quickly see that Betts is in a terrific spot here, and he’s bound to be popular, so we could default to him in cash. Bregman and Bell are also worth a look there. For GPP, we have a few good choices like Abreu and DeJong, but we can see that Haniger and Anderson are a bit cooled off right now, so we may want to skip over them this time around.
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
If you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. As you saw, we cover (and win!) all sports, not just the common ones. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all have a great week!
