Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. I normally give a quick glimpse of the top three pitchers in this report, but I’m going to leave that for VIP members for this slate, instead, I’ll break down some guys in interesting spots.
- Caleb Smith – I’m one of the biggest Caleb Smith fans there is and I pray for an outside chance that the Brewers go get him at the deadline, but that’s beside the point. The Padres are striking out at the fourth highest rate on the season at 9.73 K’s per game. Smith has struck out at least seven batters in seven of his last nine games, not only that but he doesn’t see a huge ballpark downgrade like he otherwise might on the road. San Diego is a pretty heavy pitchers ballpark and their lineup really doesn’t scare me. The biggest thing for me is that he’s coming off a pretty bad game where he scored -6.1 Draftkings points, this will keep the game log watchers away from him and hopefully coming in at lower ownership.
- Trevor Bauer – I think Trevor Bauer is a top-five pitcher in the league and he is certainly not priced like one here. At just $9,200 on Draftkings it’s hard not to like him here. The White Sox strikeout 9.67 times per game which is right behind the Padres that we just mentioned. The Sox are coming off two nice games offensively, but their lineup is not one that scares me. Bauer has one of the highest upsides among all pitchers, I’ll have a lot of him here.
- Chris Archer – The price tag on Archer is pretty crazy to look at and I think he ends up drawing some ownership here just because of his name. I will be fully avoiding Archer here and continuing the laugh at the Pirates organization for trading Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow for him. Archer hasn’t scored more than 6.5 Draftkings points in his past five starts and gets a matchup with a lethal offense in the Milwaukee Brewers. I will actually look to stack the Brewers here, don’t fall into the “name” trap, don’t play Archer here.
Full Count Breakdown:
Boston Red Sox (+113) @ New York Yankees (-123)
This game features two pitchers that have some bigger names. Chris Sale has seemed to turn a corner after a slow start to the season, however, the Yankees have an implied run total of over five runs here. Yankee stadium is very small and he has struggled with them already this year, so I’ll likely avoid Sale, but I don’t know that I’m rushing out to stack the Yanks. J.A. Happ is a bit boom or bust this season and in this matchup, I’ll side with the bust, the Red Sox have one of the best offenses in the league and in a hitters ballpark, I don’t mind a full stack here.
BOS
5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Michael Chavis, Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: I think the Red Sox could fly under the radar here and I really think they get to Happ early and often.
NYY
5-star plays: Gary Sanchez (DK)
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Just one-offs for me, I can’t stack against Sale’s talent at this point in the season
San Franciso Giants (-123) @ Baltimore Orioles (+114)
I don’t stack against Andrew Cashner, you probably know that by now if you’ve been following me for a while. Something about him just allows him to limit the big inning. Many people see the name and immediately jump to stacking him, but there are much better offenses to target on this slate. I don’t mind an O’s stack in large field tournaments, however, they come at a hefty price tag.
SFG
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Brandon Belt
GPP Note: I just don’t like the Giants
BAL
5-star plays: Jonathon Villar, Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Renato Nunez
GPP Note: Mini-stacks, one-offs, and large field full stacks
Milwaukee Brewers (-111) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+103)
I touched on Chris Archer earlier, so you already know I like the Brewers here. As far as the Pirates, I won’t be attacking their offense from a stack standpoint. Chacin is way underpriced on Draftkings and I’ll have a lot of interest in him as an SP2 to jam in bats as he gets a decent matchup in a nice pitchers park.
MIL
5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal (DK)
4-star plays: Eric Thames, Lorenzo Cain
GPP Note: I don’t love the ballpark, but I love the pitching matchup
PIT
5-star plays: Josh Bell
4-star plays: Starlin Marte, Gregory Polanco
GPP Note: I have more interest in Jhoulys Chacin
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
It looks like Jalen Beeks will follow Stanek for the Rays tonight, but not a huge deal, I’m not using pitchers against a lethal Twins offense. I don’t mind a little Jose Berrios here, but we know about his road issues and I think there are better pitching options on this slate.
MIN
5-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, Jason Castro (DK)
GPP Note: I’ll never talk you off of a Twins stack the way that they are scoring runs
TBR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Austin Meadows
GPP Note: I won’t be using a lot of Berrios, but I’m also not seeking out an opportunity to stack against him
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Washington Nationals (-123) @ Cincinnati Reds (+114)
Patrick Corbin has gone over 30 Draftkings points in three of his last four games and has one of the highest upsides on the slate. I don’t mind going with him in cash or tournaments, with that said it’s not the greatest ballparks for pitchers. Tyler Mahle struggles with left-handed hitters, giving up a 0.372 avg to them and a 40% hard contact rate to hitters as a whole. Given the small ballpark, you can certainly target the Nationals here.
WAS
5-star plays: Adam Eaton, Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Matt Adams, Trea Turner
GPP Note: I like the Nationals a lot here
CIN
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: You don’t need to be targeting hitters against Corbin
Detroit Tigers (+154) @ Atlanta Braves (-167)
Mike Foltynewicz finally had a nice start against the Cardinals in his last time out. I’ve been waiting for him to figure it out this season, the Tigers strikeout at a 26.2% rate against right-handed pitching, so I will have some interest in him here. As for the Braves, they have an implied run total of 5.2 runs here and Turnbull isn’t someone that is going to scare me off of a stack here. However he is only giving up a 33.3% hard contact rate this season, so I don’t love them as much as one might think.
DET
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Folty here
ATL
5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: I’m more of a mini-stack fan here
Kansas City Royals (+100) @ Texas Rangers (-108)
As usual, we have a high implied run total for both teams here in Texas. Danny Duffy hasn’t been terrible lately, but this is a tough spot for him. I love stacking up the Royals because of the number of outs they give us because of the power/speed combination. If they don’t hit home runs, then you have the stolen bases to fall back on and visa-versa.
KCR
5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier
4-star plays: Alex Gordon, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: I like the Royals a good deal here
TEX
5-star plays: Hunter Pence, Joey Gallo
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo
GPP Note: I think I like the Royals more, but both sides are stackable
Cleveland Indians (-168) @ Chicago White Sox (+155)
I touched on Trevor Bauer earlier and he is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate, so no White Sox for me. However, the Indians are very stackable given a matchup with Dylan Covey who has a SIERA of 6.95 on the season.
CLE
5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Jake Bauers, Jason Kipnis
GPP Note: I like the Indians a lot here
CHW
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Love Trevor Bauer here
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Chicago Cubs (+113) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-122)
Both of these pitchers have a decent amount of upside given their low price tags, so I won’t talk you off of either of them if it helps you fit in bats. With that said, I also don’t have an issue targeting them with these offenses, both of them are very solid and the ball should be flying here with the hot weather. Make sure to keep an eye on the Weather Station for hints at who the weather affects positively and negatively.
CHC
5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: No issue with a stack here
STL
5-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: No issue with a stack here either
Toronto Blue Jays (+221) @ Colorado Rockies (-243)
The Rockies are massive favorites here as German Marquez takes the mound and they get Edwin Jackson on the other side. The Rockies are expensive, but for good reason, they have a season-high 7.2 implied runs here. They are the best stack on the slate and I don’t think it’s all that close. When it comes to Marquez, he has some serious home/road splits, as most Rockies pitchers do, but he’s an elite pitcher and I don’t mind going there in GPPs.
TOR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Justin Smoak, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: I think I like Marquez more than the Jays here
COL
5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Raimel Tapia, David Dahl, Ian Desmond, Daniel Murphy
4-star plays: Tony Wolters, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Batters 1-8 are viable here, best stack on the slate
New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
I think Zach Wheeler is viable here, I’m not too worried about the Dbacks offense coming out of Coors field. As for the Mets, we are waiting for the Dbacks to announce a starting pitcher, but I think there are better stacks than the Mets tonight.
NYM
5-star plays: Peter Alonso
4-star plays: Wilson Ramos (DK), Michael Conforto
GPP Note: One-offs, mini-stacks
ARI
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jarrod Dyson, Eduardo Escobar, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: One-offs
Houston Astros (-114) @ Oakland Athletics (+105)
I think the A’s offense is very talented and Brad Peacock is a bit too expensive for my comfort. Mike Fiers is giving up a 40.5% hard contact rate this season, but the Astros are banged up right now otherwise I would have them as a top stack. However, given the state of their lineup and the ballpark, they’re a secondary stack for me.
HOU
5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Michael Brantley
GPP Note: One-offs
OAK
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson
GPP Note: One-offs
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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Tyler Skaggs is solid enough to the point where I don’t want to stack against him. On the other side of things I would like to target Mike Leake, but I just don’t like stacking the Angels, the bottom of that order is just ugly.
LAA
5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: One-offs
SEA
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Domingo Santana, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: One-offs
Miami Marlins (+152) @ San Diego Padres (-165)
I touched on Caleb Smith earlier and like him quite a bit here. Joey Lucchesi is also in play due to the weakness of the Marlins lineup, although they have been able to put up some runs lately. With that said, this is a pitchers game for me.
MIA
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’d rather have Lucchesi
SDP
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’d rather have Caleb Smith
Philadelphia Phillies (+148) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-158)
Both of these pitchers are solid, with Maeda being a better pitching option. Arrieta is coming off a great start against the Brewers, but the Dodgers offense is elite and always go under-owned at home. I like the Dodgers as a way off the board stack, and don’t you dare think about stacking them and leaving Bellinger out, FIND THE MONEY if you’re going this route.
PHI
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: One-offs
LAD
5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Elite deep GPP stack if you have the marbles to do it
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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