Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. I normally give a quick glimpse of the top three pitchers in this report, but I’m going to leave that for VIP members for this slate, instead, I’ll break down some guys in interesting spots.
- James Paxton – I want to start with Paxton because at first glance he looks to be in a great spot, however, we need to be very careful with him. This is his first game back from the IL and is expected to be limited to 60-75 pitches. Can he have a nice game in that amount of pitches? Sure. However, at his price point, there really isn’t a lot of upside even in a good strikeout matchup against the Padres.
- Robbie Ray – The second pitcher that is in an interesting spot is Mr. Robbie Ray. For a guy that has a massive curveball, he has done surprisingly well in his career at Coors Field. In six starts he’s only given up one home run and has already scored 23.4 Draftkings points in this spot earlier this season. Normally curveballs go to die in Coors and people may think this is a spot to attack the Rockies, but I may fall on the other side with Ray in GPPs.
- Pablo Lopez – Lopez may come in as a little chalky given his Draftkings price, but I love this spot for him. Not only does he get a really weak Giants team, but he gets them at home in an awesome pitchers park. Lopez has some pretty severe home/road splits this season. At home, he is averaging 18.1 Draftkings points per game and on the road, he is averaging just 5.7 Draftkings points in six starts. It’s hard not to like him at this price tag in all formats.
Full Count Breakdown
Pittsburgh Pirates (+143) @ Cincinnati Reds (-153)
The Reds lineup has been popular over the past few days, including Derek Dietrich who is coming off of a massive three home run game last night. Steven Brault is simply not good and I think you can go right back to the well here. As for the Pirates, I don’t mind a GPP stack of them against DeSclafani, but I also don’t mind having some pitching shares of him. We do have some weather in the area, so be sure to keep an eye on the Weather Station before hitting submit on those lineups.
PIT
5-star plays: Josh Bell
4-star plays: Gregory Polanco, Starlin Marte
GPP Note: I don’t hate a Pirates stack here, but I’ll also have some shares of DeSclafani
CIN
5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Nick Senzel
4-star plays: Derek Dietrich, Yasiel Puig, Joey Votto
GPP Note: The Reds should be popular, but for good reason.
St. Louis Cardinals (+161) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-171)
I don’t have a lot of interest in stacking against Aaron Nola, he’s been able to turn things around after his first three starts. Genesis Cabrera will be making his major league debut for the Cardinals, often times these go really well for the pitcher or really poorly. I don’t mind a Phillies stack here.
STL
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: One-offs only
PHI
5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Andrew McCutchen, JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Jean Segura
GPP Note: The Phillies have an implied run total of six runs here, this is a great spot
San Diego Padres (+123) @ New York Yankees (-133)
As I mentioned earlier, James Paxton is expected to be on a pitch count here, so I don’t think he’s playable considering his price. I also don’t feel the need to stack of the Padres considering the other options on this slate. The Yankees draw a tough matchup with Chris Paddack, I’ll likely stick to one-offs here.
SDP
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, Manny Machado
GPP Note: One-offs only
NYY
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Kendrys Morales (Savings)
GPP Note: One-offs only
Los Angeles Angels (-107) @ Oakland Athletics (-101)
I won’t be stacking against Griffin Canning, but there are some one-off options that you can use from the A’s. As for the Angels, Daniel Mengden hasn’t been terrible and they’re playing in a big ballpark, so I’ll likely go elsewhere.
LAA
5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: One-offs only
OAK
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson
GPP Note: One-offs only
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Texas Rangers (+119) @ Seattle Mariners (-128)
Neither of these pitchers is anything special and I think you can make a case for both of these offenses. Of the two I would prefer the Mariners simple because I think their offense is better and less boom or bust.
TEX
5-star plays: Hunter Pence, Joey Gallo
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: No issue with the Rangers here
SEA
5-star plays: Domingo Santana, Mitch Haniger, Edwin Encarnacion
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Tim Beckham
GPP Note: I have a good amount of interest in the Mariners here.
Cleveland Indians (+106)@ Boston Red Sox (-114)
Shane Bieber has proven to be a good pitcher, but the Red Sox at home are not something to take lightly. They’ll be low owned and make for a very interesting GPP stack. Ryan Weber is coming off a very solid start for the Red Sox, but given the ballpark, I don’t hate an Indians stack.
CLE
5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Jake Bauers
GPP Note: Not the worst GPP stack
BOS
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, JD Martinez, Rafael Devers, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: The Red Sox are stacked up and down the order, expensive, and tough to tame.
Detroit Tigers (+118) @ Baltimore Orioles (-128)
John Means and Dylan Bundy are the only two Baltimore pitchers that I think have any talent whatsoever, and given the state of the Tigers offense, I don’t hate targeting him. As for the O’s, Ryan Carpenter has proven to be prone to given up runs in bunches. The O’s are one of my favorite off the board stacks.
DET
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: One-offs only
BAL
5-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Hanser Alberto, Trey Mancini, Renato Nunez
4-star plays: Keon Broxton
GPP Note: One of my favorite tournament stacks
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Toronto Blue Jays (+211) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-231)
If you want to stack against Blake Snell, send me a DM so we can set up a H2H. I also don’t have a ton of interest in stacking against Trent Thorton, mostly pitchers in this game for me.
TOR
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: All the Blake Snell
TBR
5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Tommy Pham
GPP Note: One-offs only
San Francisco Giants (-116) @ Miami Marlins (+107)
Both Bumgarner and Lopez are in play here for me given the weakness of both of these offenses and the ballpark. Lopez is one of my favorite SP2 options on the slate. Nothing from these offenses intrigues me on a large slate, although the Marlins are swinging well right now.
SFG
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll have too much Lopez here
MIA
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Not much I like here
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
The most intriguing part of this game is the weather. It is supposed to be very hot with some humidity which should be a mega boost to bats. Make sure to keep an eye on that Weather Station to help yourself out!
WAS
5-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Matt Adams
GPP Note: I have not issues with the Nationals here
ATL
5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Josh Donaldson, Austin Riley
GPP Note: I prefer the Braves here
Chicago Cubs (-106) @ Houston Astros (-102)
Kyle Hendricks has really pitched well as of late and the Astros lineup is very watered down at the moment. I don’t mind going with some Hendricks here. As for the Cubs bats, I don’t stack against Wade Miley, he just doesn’t give up a ton of runs.
CHC
5-star plays: Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Javier Baez
GPP Note: One-offs only
HOU
5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Jack Mayfield (Savings)
GPP Note: One-offs only
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Both of these pitchers are not good, meaning we can go ahead and fire up these offenses. We don’t have implied run totals on them, but both are certainly in play.
KCR
5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier
4-star plays: Ryan O’Hearn, Alex Gordon
GPP Note: Love the Royals here
CHW
5-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez
4-star plays: Yonder Alonso
GPP Note: I like the Royals side better, but White Sox are certainly stackable
Arizona Diamondbacks (-112) @ Colorado Rockies (+122)
I touched on Robbie Ray earlier and think he is a sneaky pitching option here and Vegas agrees by having them as favorites here. Jeff Hoffman is nothing special, so the Diamondbacks should be popular, although very expensive.
ARI
5-star plays: Jarrod Dyson, Eduardo Escobar, Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Adam Jones
GPP Note: If you have the salary, fire ’em up
COL
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: I like Robbie Ray here more than I probably should, but the numbers support it
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New York Mets (+174) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-190)
Both of these pitchers are usable, however, I like Walker Beuhler much more than Thor. Noah Syndergaard has been fairly underwhelming this season, so if you want to go way off the board I don’t hate a Dodgers stack here, they’re one of the best offenses in the league.
NYM
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like Walker Beuhler here
LAD
5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Very sneaky stack that could pay dividends
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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