Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @DFSnDONUTS and you can find me on YouTube | Twitch | iTunes with supplemental commentary and teaching. You’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process
Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses
When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators. Look at all that green circled! These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble). To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.
How To Find MLB Hitters – Trending wOBA
Here is a page in DFS Army’s Research Station from which you can build entire lineups. I prefer to use the trending wOBA and more specifically, the last seven games (L7) column. I’m a huge believer in MLB hot streaks and I will ride them off and on all year. People will shout that a guy is heating up or cooling off, but I prefer to watch this column over listening to the voices. I won’t miss a guy by more than about three days. If he gets hot, I’ll see it soon enough and jump on board. I’ll get off a formerly hot player faster than most now, too. Remember, pricing trails production in DFS and it goes up much faster than it comes down. When a guy is running hot he’s usually under priced. When he cools off he stays overpriced for a long time. Use this tab to help you figure that out and ask me inside our coaching channels as a VIP. This is my foundation building block for the next six months and it only takes a week to populate.
Filtered yesterday to show your DraftKings guys <3500 in salary with at least 10 plate appearances on the year. We are going to need value today, and our Research Station allows you to find it in mere seconds once you have access to the tool and know how to manipulate it a little.
KCR (+224) @ TAM (-247)
This game has just a 7.0 total with the Rays sitting at a healthy 4.5 implied run total (IRT). Blake Snell is an elite arm in a decent spot. The Royals have just a 2.5 IRT and it’s the lowest out of all 30 teams playing baseball on Wednesday.
KCR
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – There is a nice leverage opportunity to target the Royals stack against the Blake Snell ownership. While Snell is a nice cash game option he is probably someone worth being underweight on in GPP’s, offering us a nice leverage situation against the field.
I don’t mind stacking up the Royals right-handed hitters and would look to target Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Jorge Soler, Chris Owings, and any other RHH that makes the lineup for large field tournaments only.
TAM
5 Star Plays – Blake Snell in cash. Blake Snell for MME.
4 Star Plays – Brandon Lowe, Joey Wendle (FanDuel cleanup hitter at just 2.5k and 2B eligible)
GPP note – none
MIA (+152) @ CLE (-166)
With just a 4.0 IRT against Jefry Rodriguez, I think there is some stack appeal by using the Marlins against a weak arm. While the Marlins don’t have anybody that stands out individually, Jefry Rodriguez is nothing special and they’ll all be lower owned.
MIA
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – I would use the randomized stack function within the DFS Army optimizer and throw a small 5-10% four man stack on Miami.
CLE
5 Star Plays – Jose Ramirez
4 Star Plays – Carlos Santana, Carlos Gomez, Francisco Lindor
GPP note –
MIL (+115) @ STL (-125)
This game has a full blown 4-4 game stack opportunity. Both teams are heating up slightly at the plate and individuals are starting to awake. Travis Shaw is alive once against with a home in two straight games. Chacin could struggle against this Cardinals lineup. Neither pitcher is in play for me even though MIL has just a 4.0 IRT and STL has just a 4.5 IRT. The upside just is not there are their price points.
MIL
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Eric Thames, Yasmani Grandal, Travis Shaw
GPP note –none
STL
5 Star Plays – Matt Carpenter
4 Star Plays – Marcell Ozuna, Dexter Fowler, Paul DeJonh, Paul Godschmidt
GPP note – I love the randomized stack function for both teams since they have guys up and down the lineup that are massive ceilings (and low floors). The more volatile the team can be the better the opportunity at times.
WAS (+143) @ COL (-155)
Anibal Sanchez is in trouble in Coors as the Rox are waking up and have a healthy 5.9 IRT. German Marquez is an elite GPP option whenever he is on the mound and especially at home due to single-digit ownership. I really like Marquez today.
WAS
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – The Nats left-handed hitters stack is absolutely in play on this slate. However, my personal usage of the Nats will be to hedge against my Marquez investment.
COL
5 Star Plays – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl
4 Star Plays – Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Ryan McMahon
GPP note – I will have quite a few shares of stacks on this slate using the randomized function within the Domination Station.
TEX (+142) @ OAK (-154)
Both of these teams can smash the ball and rack up the home runs. Aaron Brooks is a mildly appealing MME option but mostly my investment here will be on the hitting stacks. I am more on Oakland due to their 5.1 IRT and Texas having just a 4.1 IRT on the road.
TEX
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo
GPP note – none
OAK
5 Star Plays – Khris Davis
4 Star Plays – Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman, Kendrys Morales, Stephen Piscotty
GPP note – This is a good team to stack today and most of their batters should be lower owned due to price points and other teams on the slate that look more appealing and/or better priced.
Here at DFS Army, we win……and we win a lot. From smaller budgets and cash games to bigger whales swinging for the 6-figure fences, we’ve guided every type and every experience level for going on 4 seasons now. Our members rave about the responsiveness and interaction between coaches and players and we actually form friendships that span sports. There is no community more invested in your success, nor a community that takes greater pride in your wins and sweats as we watch and root for you into the wee hours of mornings. Don’t believe me? See our Wall of Wins and just scroll through page after page and sport after sport.
SEA (+155) @ SDP (-169)
Whenever Chris Paddack takes the mound he’s a nice MME option and Single Entry GPP target. He has gobs of talent and is dripping with upside. The Mariners can get after opposing starters quickly and run wild on the bullpen, so I’ll be targeting both sides here.
SEA
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – I don’t want to target any one hitter individually and am not overly fond of their 3.7 IRT. However, I like the LHH team stack to hedge my Paddack investment.
SDP
5 Star Plays – Chris Paddack
4 Star Plays – Eric Hosmer
GPP note – none
SFG (-121) @ TOR (+111)
This is a really boring game across the board. Neither pitcher has a ton of strikeout upside or even a quality start potential. Both IRT’s leave a lot to be desired as well. Just X’ing this one out in our optimizer.
SFG
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – none
TOR
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – none
ATL (-122) @ CIN (+113)
The Braves LHH are always in play against a RHP and today is no different against opposing righty, Tanner Roark. The Braves have a healthy 5.0 and if this game plays through the weather then I really like the Atlanta Bats.
ATL
5 Star Plays – Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
4 Star Plays – Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson, Brian McCann, Ender Inciarte
GPP note – I’ll have a healthy amount of Braves stacks.
CIN
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – Nothing is making me run to the Reds side but I will have a few stack shares in case Soroka is run off the mound and the Reds get to the Braves pen.
ARI (+106) @ PIT (-115)
I like both pitchers in this game, Merrill Kelly for Arizona and Jordan Lyles for the Pirates. I’ll have them both in my MME pool. I am not fond of either team for hitting but you know I like to hedge my investment against volatile arms. I’ll discuss this in my VIP article “MME Playbook” which should post this afternoon.
ARI
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Merrill Kelly
GPP note – none
PIT
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Jordan Lyles
GPP note – none
You see above you a unique to DFS Army members metric combining hard contact with BABIP to measure which players are hitting the ball hard but not seeing the typical results. The gamble here is normalization of their numbers and a pending hot streak. MLB is about avoiding zeroes and this is a list capable of producing great cores and one-offs alike.
CWS (+115) @ BAL (-124)
I warned people yesterday not to target the White Sox after the big blow up and facing Andrew Cashner who has limited damage all season even though he stinks. Today, we have a nice opportunity to game stack this and fade the pitchers!
CWS
5 Star Plays – Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
4 Star Plays – Ryan Cordell, Leury Garcia
GPP note – Going to have quite a few shares of the White Sox tonight.
BAL
5 Star Plays – Jonathan Villar, Drive Smith Jr.
4 Star Plays – Rio Ruiz, Chris Davis
GPP note – Prefer to game stack this more than anything.
PHI (-128) @ NYM (+118)
Vince Velasquez is in play here for me and I’ll discuss how to use him and how to hedge in my MME Playbook. Jason Vargas is someone I am going to stack against heavily and I think the Phillies 4.8 IRT is way too low.
PHI
5 Star Plays – Bryce Harper
4 Star Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen
GPP note – This seems like a “get right” spot for a few of these colder bats. Regression to the mean!
NYM
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Robinson Cano, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Wilson Ramos
GPP note – VIP MME Playbook will highlight this.
DET (+192) @ BOS (-210)
Eduardo Rodriguez is in play as a massive favorite. Likely a better cash game option and small field GPP target than an MME target due to price point and perceived ceiling. Boston has a massive 5.7 IRT and Tyson Ross can be roughed up.
DET
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – I don’t mind a mini stack of Nick Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera with the RvL splits advantages.
BOS
5 Star Plays – Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez
4 Star Plays – Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley
GPP note – Stack em’ up and stack em’ high!
LAD (-115) @ CHC (+106)
Both Walker Buehler and Cole Hamels are great MME targets and I’ll be sure to have both of them in my pool. I don’t like either team for offense tonight due to the plethora of other better spots.
LAD
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Walker Buehler
GPP note – none
CHC
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays –Cole Hamels
GPP note – none
MIN (+221) @ HOU (-243)
Justin Verlander takes the mound and is a nice cash game option and MME target. When he puts it all together he can be nearly unhittable. In the last two games, he’s given up just 5 hits in 13 innings and struck out 19 hitters. Wow…
Astros bats are on fire and I love this team for stacking.
MIN
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – none
HOU
5 Star Plays – Justin Verlander, Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick
4 Star Plays – Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Tony Kemp
GPP note – They just keep hitting home runs and Kohl Stewart is in trouble in his first start of the season. I love the Astros offense and will highlight them in my MME Playbook for what stack percentage I want to use.
NYY (+101) @ LAA (-109)
Surprisingly, both CC Sabathia for the Yanks and Felix Pena for the Angels are in play for MME. Sabathia has looked solid to start the season and his price point is affordable across the industry. Felix Pena is in play because the Yankees lineup is in disarray due to injuries.
NYY
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – CC Sabathia, Mike Tauchman, Michael Ford, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, Clint Frazier
GPP note – Pena is not good and the Yankees are a cheap stack due to all the platoon and injury filling starters.
LAD
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Felix Pena, Mike Trout
GPP note – none
Starting Lineups for every game that are complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades. You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up. Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today.
Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…
Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs. However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you. Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition. There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!
GPP Sleeper stack will be saved for members!!
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed and profitable day!
