Donuts to Dollars
The modus operandi of the majority of my Daily Fantasy MLB articles, videos, and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in on FanDuel or DraftKings. This article will identify my personal favorite pitchers using the #DonutsToDollars model as well as point out my top teams I am targeting and a few specific stacks. My hope is to give you a playbook that you can loosely follow and hopefully win some loot!
MLB Pitching Pool for MME
Trevor Bauer, Freddy Peralta, Joey Lucchesi, Yu Darvish, Aaron Nola, and Matt Shoemaker are all in play on DraftKings due to their K-rates being 9.631 or higher over the last year of baseball. I likely would add in Antonio Sentazela due to his low price point, Martin Perez making his first start against a beatable Toronto Blue Jays lineup, and Yusei Kikuchi because the Indians cannot hit the ball and are implied to score just 3.8 runs.
While I don’t do a ton with my MME pool, I do like to put small minimum percentages on each pitcher or at the very least on my favorite few to ensure they get used by the optimizer. I am talking about 5-25% based on how much I truly love them. Outside of that, I allow the optimizer to pump out lineups and exposure based on the most optimal approach via the algorithm.
Single Entry GPP Pitchers
While these pitchers will all be tossed into the player pool for MME, this doesn’t help very much for Single Entry GPP’s and lineups. For those, I am targeting Joey Lucchesi and Martin Perez due to their matchup and potential at lower ownership. Perez has had zero control this season, as he has put 20 men on base in just 8.1 innings pitched. He has struck out 12 though and had great control during Spring Training, so I am hoping he regains confidence and control against Toronto. I think he’s in a get right spot.
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Specific Daily Fantasy MLB Stacks and Teams to Target for Stacking
When I select my stacks I like to run through the trending tab, batter matchups tab, top-10 lists for a bunch of different stats, and the top rated players within the Research Station. As I scour through all the data I take notes on who stands out in multiple categories and those guys normally get some type of minimum percentage put on them within the optimizer. This not only gets them selected more when my stacks are used but it uses them as one-offs for my 4-3-1 stacks. This is crucial for having success in a GPP.
After I have read through the Research Station, I like to give the full-slate MLB breakdown a quick read to see if there is anything that stands out or that I have missed at this point. Then I create my stack ranges for the randomized stack structure so that my personal bias doesn’t ruin all my hard work!
Tier 1 Stacks
These are the teams I want to stack with my highest exposure. Whether you decide to use the controlled stacks (example below) or the randomized stack exposure (as I do, the example provided), I’ll have my highest percentage on the Tier 1 teams).
Texas Rangers (30-50%)
Opposing pitcher Trevor Cahil does not give up a ton of home runs and generally is a middle of the road pitcher. However, the Texas bats can get hot in a hurry and they are stacked with left-handed hitters. They are striking out just 25.5% of the time and have a .307 wOBA against RHP. These are good numbers for a Texas team that would struggle to make contact last season outside of their power surges.
If using the controlled stack option, look to target Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Elvis Andrus, and Danny Santana.
Milwaukee Brewers (40-60%)
Dakota Hudson has not looked good for the Cards this season and the Brewers can drop 15 on you quick if their bats show up. He has put 20 men on base in just 9.2 innings pitched and it has taken him 88 and 104 pitches in his last two starts just to get to 4.1 and 4.2 innings pitched. This could get ugly really fast.
If using the controlled stack option, roll with Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, and my favorite option on the Brew Crew – Yasmani Grandal.
Tier 2 Stacks
These are the teams I am generally using to hedge my pitcher investment and/or don’t have a clear read on what might happen but understand extreme outcomes are possible.
Los Angeles Angels (20-30%)
The Angels have a 5.5 implied run total (IRT) and face off against Shelby Miller, who has a massive 2.077 HR/9 rate and 2.262 WHIP over the last year. The Angles don’t have a loaded lineup but the IRT is indicative of just how bad Shelby Miller can be. The game is also taking place in Texas where home runs are plentiful during warm and humid days.
If using the controlled stacking, look to roll out Mike Trout, Tommy La Stella, Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons, Brian Goodwin, Kole Calhoun, and Justin Bour. If you need a catcher on DraftKings, add in Jonathan Lucroy.
Saint Louis Cardinals (20-30%)
I like the idea of game stacking this one because Freddy Peralta can lose control sometimes. This is normal for big strikeout pitchers. If he unravels early, we could have the makings of a very high scoring affair in Milwaukee, leading to tournament winning upside. I would potentially look to roll out 4-4 game stacks with this one for about 10-20% of your entire CSV file. What a gorgeous day for Daily Fantasy MLB!
If using the controlled stack option, I would target Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina, Marcell Ozuna, and Paul DeJong.
Chicago White Sox (20-30%)
The White Sox have a winnable matchup against Heath Fillmyer who can’t strike anybody out. The White Sox bats are affordable and will be low owned.
If using the controlled stack option, I am all over Jose Abreu, Yonder Alonso, Leury Garcia, Yolmer Sanchez, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Daniel Palka, and Eloy Jiminez (one of my favorite options on the slate and a key White Sox stacking option).
Kansas City Royals (20-30%)
I love me some Royals in DFS. They used to just be a pesky team against opposing pitchers. Now they are quite dangerous with a plethora of young and talented hitters. Ervin Santana has had so many blowup games over the last 12 months that he and Homer Bailey should be besties. The Royals also have a strong .324 team wOBA and are plenty of affordable bats.
If using the control stack option, I am currently leaning towards targeting Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Alex Gordon, Lucas Duda, and Ryan O’Hearn (one of my favorite 1B options on both FanDuel and DraftKings).
Or if you want to have controlled stacks and select the specific players you want to be used and in what type of stacks then you can used the controlled hitter stack setting. This is just an example and I randomly clicked through quickly and was able to pump out 50 lineups in a flash. I would also make sure the stack percentage was at 100% on each side for a real optimized CSV file.
Domination Station DFS Optimizer for GPP’s and Mass-Multi Entering (MME)
This is how I personally use the DFS Army Domination Station optimizer.
- Cut all pitchers out of my player pool
- Add in the pitchers I want to target one by one
- Identify all teams I want to stack
- If using controlled stacks then create my player pool of hitters
- If using the randomized stacks (which I do) then I begin to create percentages for all my favorite teams to target adding up to 180-200%
- Prepare my 150 entry settings
- 3 uniques
- optimal mode
- DFS Army points
- Make sure allow opposing pitchers is unchecked
- Maximum exposure cap of 60-80% if not feeling confident and 80-100% when clear value or targets
What’s Next?
Are you looking to outsource your time and efforts to nearly 40-staff members to research data and trends, choose targets, and then provide you with their personal player pool? Do you have the time and energy to use an all in one research tool and optimizer while diving deep into data and discussing each slate with other members and coaches?
No matter what camp you are in, we know you’ll enjoy the DFS Army VIP membership so that you can hang out with our community, share information, and chat one on one with our DFS Pro’s (specific staff coaches that play full-time) in our member chat service. If you’re a frequent DFS player, then it’s well worth the investment and trial.
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Closing
I really hope this helps you get your feet under you at the beginning of this MLB season for Daily Fantasy. Please subscribe to me on the following platforms and I would love to hear from you on Twitter or in our member service in my #Donut-Shop coaching channel!
Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
Twitter me @DFSnDONUTS
