Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for the early slate of games. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- Michael Pineda – Pineda leads these three guys in not only Kscore, but also in Carnage rating. A matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays has been good news for opposing pitchers this season and I expect that to continue. The Jays project for just 3.7 runs here, I don’t mind Pineda.
- Patrick Corbin – Corbin is easily my favorite pitcher on the slate. Not only does he lead the slate with a Kscore of 570, but the Giants are one of the worse offenses in the league and have an implied total of just 3.3 here. I expect Corbin to be popular, but for good reason.
- Ivan Nova – There is supposed to be some weather in this game, so keep an eye on the Weather Station for updates. If there is any chance of an in-game delay I tend to stay away from pitchers because if it’s delayed, the starter is basically done. It is a pretty decent matchup, but I don’t see me falling here.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the early slate:
That is a whole lot of red for Mr. Daniel Norris. The White Sox have had a hard hit percentage of 63% over the past 15 days and will look to continue that here tonight. I really like stacking up the Braves, they have a good combination of speed and power and they get a decent matchup here. I think Weaver turns it around at some point this season, but I don’t think this is the spot. The Twins have an implied total of 5 runs here against Buchholz. That is the highest total on the slate and that’s always a decent idea to give that team consideration.
Early Slate:
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
Odds:
The Braves are up there as one of the top stacks on the plate, so they are certainly in play here. As for the Dbacks, the bottom of their lineup just isn’t good enough for me to stack them here.
Ari 5-star plays: David Peralta
4-star plays: Jerrod Dyson, Adam Jones, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Better team for one-offs rather than stacking
Atl 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Nick Markakis, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: One of the top stacks on the slate for me.
San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals
Odds: Was -205, o/u 8.0
I have no interest in the Giants offense, as I will have a lot of Patrick Corbin. The Washington side is pretty interesting, however. The Nats are my second favorite stack right behind Atlanta.
SF 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Nope
Was 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Brian Dozier
GPP Note: Very stackable spot here for the Nats.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
Odds: Min -160, o/u 8.5
I don’t have a lot of interest from the Blue Jays side and would rather target Michael Pineda. However, the Twins rank up in the three teams I would stack on this slate.
Tor 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Not a lot of interest here.
Min 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Implied run total of 5 runs, very interested here.
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Odds:
If I had to pick a pitcher here it would be Ivan Nova, but I really don’t have interest in either of these offenses. The Sox are hitting the ball decently as of late, but I’d rather take one-offs.
CHW 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Leury Garcia
GPP Note: Meh
Det 5-star plays: Niko Goodrum
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: I’d rather go elsewhere for GPPS.
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees
Odds: NYY -210, o/u 9.0
I’ve got quite a bit of interest in Domingo German here, he has an elite wOBA rating on the Carnage Report. The Royals aren’t exactly a scary offense, however, Hunter Dozier is heating up and you always have to be careful with Merrifield and Mondesi at the top.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Super deep GPP play that I likely won’t have any of.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Stack against Homer Bailey, it’s not the lineup we’re used to, but it’s certainly playable.
Main Slate:
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Odds: TB -250, o/u 8.5
Ryan Wood will start this game for the Rays, but Ryan Yarborough will be the pitcher to have interest in as Wood will only be in there for an inning or so. I have a little interest in Yarborough given the pitching on this slate. As far as the offenses go, the Rays continue to hit well, a stack is certainly in play.
Bal 5-star plays: Jonathan Villar
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Not a lot of interest in a stack here
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Avisail Garcia, Mike Zunino (DK)
GPP Note: This is one of the better stacks of the day.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Odds: LAD -113, o/u 9.5
I almost expect the Dodgers to be fairly popular here, but Zack Davies has pitched well for the Brewers this season. He started is last game against the Dodgers in L.A. and went 7 innings of one-run baseball, so I’ll likely be lower on the Dodgers here. Urias, on the other hand, is in the same boat as Davies, but he gave up 5 earned runs in five innings pitched. Of the two sides, I like the Brewers bats better.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Corey Seager
GPP Note: I like the Dodgers more for GPPs
Mil 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal (DK)
4-star plays: Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain
GPP Note: I like the Brewers a little more than the Dodgers here, but leaving them both for GPPs.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies
Odds: Phi -115, o/u 11.0
I feel like this is our first Coors slate in awhile. You’ll come to recognize that I’m really never high on Coors guys, as their prices take a massive uptick. Unless there is cheap pitching (like there is tonight), I tend to avoid them. However, the pitchers are not good tonight, so we have the money to pay up for these bats if we want to.
Phi 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Scott Kingery
GPP Note: Expensive stack, but a good one.
Col 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Ian Desmond
GPP Note: Eflin struggles with lefties so keep that in mind, but a good stack all around, although expensive.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
Odds: LAA -120, o/u 9.5
Both of these offenses are in play tonight, as I have zero interest in either of these pitchers. The only problem with the Angels is… their offense kind of stinks after the cleanup hitter. The Mariners are up there with the Rays and Coors as good stacks tonight.
Sea 5-star plays: Mallex Smith, Jay Bruce
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Edwin Encarnacion, Domingo Santana
GPP Note: Nice pivot off of Coors
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Justin Bour
GPP Note: I wish the lineup was better, probably better for mini-stacks
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres
Odds: SD -170, o/u 7.5
I think it’s finally time to jump on the Chris Paddack train. This game features the lowest over/under on the slate and is an incredible pitchers park. I don’t even mind Tanner Roark as an SP2 option.
Cin 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I don’t have much interest in either of these offenses
SD 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer (Value)
GPP Note: There are a few one-off options, but that’s about it.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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