Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for the early slate, and none of them should really come as a huge surprise given their ability/matchup. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- Stephen Strasburg – We saw the strikeout potential in the Padres lineup last night when Scherzer went out and struck them out 10 times. Scherzer’s Kscore was a bit higher, but Strasburg certainly has double-digit strikeout potential. His Carnage Rating is incredibly high and I’ll go right back to the well here.
- David Price – This game got rained out yesterday so they are going to skip Josh Smith and go with David Price. Be sure to keep an eye on the Weather Station here, it looks like the wind will be blowing out pretty heavily which isn’t ideal for pitching. Tampa Bay’s lineup isn’t that great today, so the potential is definitely there for Price.
- Charlie Morton – On the other side of that game, I really never love picking on the Red Sox offense, especially with the wind blowing out to right field. This is a scenario where fly-balls could easily turn into home runs with that short porch. These are things you need to factor into your pitching decision, I personally won’t have any Morton here.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings:
These three pitchers have to worst rankings among pitchers on the main slate, so we can look to attack them with opposing lineups. Two of these guys are pitching in Arizona which will be interesting to see, keep an eye on the roof situation, if the roof is open this could turn into home run derby. Reynaldo Lopez is coming off back-to-back really nice starts and gets a Detroit team here. Detroit put up 11 runs last night, so they may be getting hot here. **As I’m writing this, this game has just been postponed… head over to the Weather Station to see more troubling situations.**
Game Breakdown:
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
Odds: Min -250, o/u 8.5
Jose Berrios doesn’t grade out so well in the Carnage Report, but I will have some interest here. With that said, no interest in the Orioles lineup. The Twins are in another great spot here today, I’ll go back to the well.
Bal
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like Berrios on the other side, so no interest here.
Min
5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver (DK), Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, CJ Cron, Marwin Gonzalez
GPP Note: One of the better stacks on the day.
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals
Odds: Stl -132, 9.0 o/u
Both of these offenses could make for a sneaky stack. The wind looks like it will be blowing out and neither team is starting a very great pitcher. Mahle is a guy you want to attack with lefties, as he really struggles with them throughout his career.
Cin
5-star plays: Jesse Winker, Joey Votto
4-star plays: Scott Schebler, Derek Dietrich
GPP Note: A case can be made for a Reds stack here
Stl
5-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, Dexter Fowler
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: I’d probably prefer this side of the game, but both teams are stackable here.
Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays
Odds: Even, 9.0 o/u
Both of these offenses are playable as well. I would probably stick to one-offs instead of stacking, but there are definitely some good bats in this one. By the way, Vlad Jr. is #Good.
Oak
5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Kendrys Morales
4-star plays: Khris Davis
GPP Note: One-offs for me
Tor
5-star plays: Justin Smoak
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: One-offs for me again
San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals
Odds: Was -170, 8.5 o/u
I’ll have a lot of interest in Strasburg here, so no interest in the Padres. But anytime a lefty is on the mound, the Nationals are interesting, particularly Rendon and Zimmerman.
SDP
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No thanks
WAS
5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Kurt Suzuki (DK), Ryan Zimmerman
4-star plays: Brian Dozier, Juan Soto
GPP Note: A case can be made to stack, a mini-stack may be the better idea though
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Cleveland Indians @ Houston Astros
Odds: Hou -132, 9.0 o/u
Both of these pitchers rank pretty high on the Carnage Report, so I won’t have much interest in either of these offenses. With that said, you can look to both of these pitchers as starting pitching options.
CLE
5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Carlos Santana
GPP Note: One-offs only
HOU
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Michael Brantley
GPP Note: One-offs only
New York Yankees @ San Francisco Giants
Odds: Even, 7.5 o/u
Streaming pitching against the Giants has been profitable this season, so JA Happ is playable, while I won’t be touching the Giants offense. I’ve played more Derek Holland than I care to admit this season, but the truth is he has a nice strikeout rate on the season. He’s more of a GPP guy, but nonetheless.
NYY
5-star plays: Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Stack is certainly viable for MME and large field tourney’s
SFG
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No thanks
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Odds: Bos -132, 9.0 o/u
This game has some good pitchers going, but a combination of weather, ballpark, and lineups leads me to have zero interest in either of these guys. Both offenses are in play for me in GPPs for the same reasons.
TBR
5-star plays: Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: GPP Stack
BOS
5-star plays: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: GPP Stack, more of a mini-stack though
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Odds: Phi -180, 8.0 o/u
Jake Arrieta doesn’t grade out so well here, but he scored 29.6 Draftkings points against the Marlins earlier this season. Yes, it was in Miami, but he makes for a good SP2 option. The Phillies offense can be targeted here, Trevor Richards is nothing special away from home.
MIA
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No Thanks
PHI
5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: I like the Phillies stack here
Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets
Odds: NYM -135, 7.5 o/u
Both of these pitchers rank pretty high on the Carnage Report, so staying away from these offenses may be the better idea. I don’t mind using either of these pitchers as options tonight.
MIL
5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Eric Thames
GPP Note: One-offs only
NYM
5-star plays: Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Robinson Cano, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: One-offs only
Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals
Odds: Even, 9.0 o/u
Jaime Barria surprisingly ranks in the top 5 on the main slate Carnage Report tonight, the Royals strikeout a decent amount and outside a few guys, aren’t that great. Barria is in play as an SP2 option. I don’t love the Angels lineup, but a mini-stack is viable, I don’t like the bottom of this order. With that said, they do have some good DFSA grades up and down the order, here is a sneak peek at the Research Station…
LAA
5-star plays: Mike Trout, Tommy La Stella, Justin Bour
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Brian Goodwin
GPP Note: I won’t talk you off of a full stack here
KCR
5-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Ryan O’Hearn
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: I’d stick to one-offs or a mini-stack
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
Odds: Even, 9.0 o/u
Neither of these pitchers ranks very high on the Carnage Report, but any time Jon Gray is away from Coors Field I’ll at least have a little interest because the talent is there. I would prefer the Rockies offense if picking between the two here.
COL
5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: David Dahl, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Probably stick to one-offs or mini-stacks
ATL
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: One-offs only
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Odds: Chi -125, 10.0 o/u
I love this game for offensive purposes, as long as the roof is open the ball should fly out here. Neither of these pitchers is something to be afraid of, stack em up.
CHC
5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Very sneaky stack that I really like here
ARI
5-star plays: David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Same as the Cubs, I think we get really low ownership on a double-digit implied run total
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Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Odds: Even, 8.5 o/u
I was really high on the Mariners last night, but I think we can jump off here. Mike Minor has been exceptional this season and I don’t want to be targeting until he regresses a bit. The Rangers can be targeted, however, I may stick to mini-stacks or one-offs, as Mike Leake tends to limit damage.
TEX
5-star plays: Joey Gallo, Shin-Soo Choo
4-star plays: Asdrubal Cabrera, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: Mini-stacks and one-offs
SEA
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Edwin Encarnacion, Domingo Santana
GPP Note: One-offs only
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Odds: LAD -230, 7.5 o/u
Clayton Kershaw is certainly playable here and I have no interest in targeting the Pirates offense. Joe Musgrove actually ranks above Kershaw in the Carnage Report, so stacking up the Dodgers may not be the best idea.
PIT
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Not against Kershaw
LAD
5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Justin Turner
GPP Note: One-offs and mini-stacks for me
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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