Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for this massive 15 game slate, and none of them should really come as a huge surprise given their ability/matchup. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- James Paxton – Paxton is in an excellent spot here, he gets a massive ballpark upgrade by going from Yankee Stadium to San Francisco. The Giants have an implied total of just 3.1 here and really don’t have anyone in the lineup that really scares me. The Kscore is also nice here, with an elite carnage rating, it’s tough to find something bad about this spot for Paxton.
- Max Scherzer – Scherzer also gets a nice matchup, as he’ll host the San Diego Padres who have an implied total of just 2.9 runs. The one thing we need to watch out for here is the weather, it looks like there will be some rain in the area, so keep an eye on that Weather Station. I normally don’t target pitchers if there is any chance of an in-game delay, so it’s something to be very careful of.
- Jacob deGrom – Some of you already know this from the basketball season, but I’m a big Wisconsin sports homer, so writing deGrom up as an elite play here is tough! But the truth is he’s one of the best pitchers in the league, and look at that Kscore! However, we have weather issues in this game as well, I’m writing this the night before so things could change, but here is the link to the Weather Station!
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings:
One of these things is not like the other… or is it? It’s very weird seeing Corey Kluber ranked this low in the carnage system, but the truth is he hasn’t been great this season. I probably won’t fully stack the Astros just because it’s a 15 game slate and I do respect Kluber’s past, but its noteworthy nonetheless. The Orioles draw a matchup with Martin Perez and have an implied total of just 3.7 runs here. However, Perez can be streaky and the O’s have wOBA of .353 against lefties this season. On the other side of the field, the Twins draw a matchup with Alex Cobb, who I would tend to classify as a gas can. The Twins have an implied total of over 5 runs here. In fact, his last start came against the Twins, in that game, he gave up 9 earned runs in 2.2 innings pitched… so yeah.
Game Breakdown:
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Odds: Phi -185, 8.5 o/u
This is another game where we have a decent amount of weather concern, by now you know enough to head to the Weather Station. If we do get the all clear here, I’ll have some interest in the Phillies offense, but will likely stay away from the Marlins given the size of the slate. Eickhoff also makes for an interesting SP2 option.
Mia 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker
GPP Note: Not a fan of stacking this team, especially on a full slate. Walker and Granderson are fine value plays, however.
Phi 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Maikel Franco, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Certainly stackable here
San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals
Odds: Was -194, o/u 7.0
I wrote about the Scherzer matchup in the pitcher section above, while also talking about the importance of the Weather Station here. If we get the all clear, the Nationals are interesting here. Strahm has pitched pretty well this season, but Rendon and Zimmerman are known for mashing lefties.
SD 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m not stacking against Scherzer
Was 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Kurt Suzuki
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Brian Dozier
GPP Note: Sneaky GPP stack
Oakland Athletics @ Toronto Blue Jays
Odds: Tor -128, 8.5 o/u
This is a bit of a weird game for me, I don’t have a ton of interest in either pitcher. However, I’m not actively seeking out a stack of either of these offenses. With that said, both of these teams have some phenomenal bats if we go to the Research Station and use the DFSA grades, here is a look at the Blue Jays for example.
Oak 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, Stephen Piscotty
GPP Note: I’ll stick to one-offs from this team
Tor 5-star plays: Justin Smoak, Rowdy Tellez, Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: I may be completely off on this game, I trust the Research Station in that this is a very playable stack
Tamba Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Odds: Bos -145, 8.5 o/u
Boston has been a popular stack for a few days now, but today feels like a good time to jump off as they get a difficult matchup with Charlie Morton, who ranks pretty highly in the Carnage Report. We don’t know who is pitching yet for the Sox, so keep an eye on that when targeting the Rays offense.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: One-offs only
Bos 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: One-offs only in a tough matchup
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Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets
Odds: NYM -198, 7.5 o/u
This is deGrom’s first start since returning from the 10-day IL, but I don’t think we’ll see him limited too much here unless something flares up. The Mets offense is a bit interesting here, but I’ll proceed with caution as Chase Anderson has pitched surprisingly well lately.
Mil 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Eric Thames
GPP Note: I normally like to have at least one Brewers offense because of their elite offense, but I don’t think it’s necessary unless you’re making more than 20 lineups here.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Todd Frazier, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano
GPP Note: I’m sticking to one-offs here
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
Odds: Atl -170, 9.0 o/u
Both of these offenses are interesting to me. Any time the Rockies get a lefty on the mound I’ll look to have some exposure, and the Braves at home are always scary.
Col 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Ian Desmond
GPP Note: Love a mini-stack of Story and Arenado
Atl 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Viable, fun stack
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
Odds: Min -203, 9.0 o/u
Both of these teams got features in the “pitchers to attack” section. Of the two, I much prefer the Twins in this matchup against Alex Cobb, who they absolutely tattoed in their last game.
Bal 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: One-offs only for me
Min 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Max Kepler
GPP Note: One of the better full stacks on the slate
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Odds: CHW -132, 8.5 o/u
I like Carlos Rodon as an SP2 option here and has a nice rating on the Carnage Report. It looks like the wind will be blowing out pretty heavily here, the White Sox are certainly in play with a matchup against Daniel Norris.
Det 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Not a lot of interest for me
CHW 5-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yonder Alonso
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Wellington Castillo, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Sneaky MME stack
Cleveland Indians @ Houston Astros
Odds: Hou -137, 8.0 o/u
Collin McHugh ranks nicely in the Carnage Report, and I’ll have a decent amount of interest in him in this plus matchup. I touched on the Astros offense in the “pitchers to attack” section, but I won’t actively be seeking out a stack against Kluber here, one-offs are viable given his struggles this season though.
Cle 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: I have more interest in McHugh in this spot
Hou 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: One-offs only for me
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Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals
Odds: LAA -128, 8.5 o/u
Tyler Skaggs has a pretty decent rating on the Carnage Report here, I’ll have some interest as an SP2. Neither of these offenses are ones I love stacking because of the weak bottom parts of the order, but there are some nice one-offs on each side.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Andrelton Simmons, Kevan Smith (DK)
GPP Note: One-offs only
KC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: One-offs only
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals
Odds: Stl -147, 8.5 o/u
Mikolas doesn’t have a great strikeout rate and really hasn’t been all that great this year, so although I don’t love the Reds offense here, I also won’t be all over Mikolas. The Cardinals offense is hot, however, and I’ll have some stacking interest. I love Matt Carpenter here…
Cin 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Not much interest for me
Stl 5-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Wieters (DK), Kolten Wong, Marcell Ozuna
4-star plays: Dexter Fowler
GPP Note: I have quite a bit of interest in this team tonight
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Odds: Ari -111, 8.5 o/u
Neither of these pitchers ranks very highly in the Carnage Report, which means we can jump right to the offenses. If the roof ends up being open here we could see a home run derby, as it is supposed to be in the 90’s temperature wise during game time. Both of these offenses are very interesting, particularly the Cubs.
CHC 5-star plays: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Wilson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Mini-stacks feel like the best option here
Ari 5-star plays: David Peralta
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Mini-stacks here as well
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Odds: Sea -168, 8.5 o/u
I’ll have close to zero interest in either of these pitchers. The Mariners offense is scary this season and a matchup against Shelby Miller is something to take note of, I love them here. The Rangers are probably a team that I’ll look to for one-offs rather than a full stack.
Tex 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: One-offs only
Sea 5-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Jay Bruce, Mitch Haniger, Edwin Encarnacion, Domingo Santana, Tim Beckham
4-star plays: Omar Navaraez, Ryon Healy
GPP Note: Seattle might be my favorite stack on the slate
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Odds: LAD -176, 7.5 o/u
Both pitchers are viable here, so offenses will be tough to target. But take a deeper dive on these pitchers, both rank relatively high on the Carnage Report.
Pit 5-star plays: Cole Tucker
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: I have more interest in Ryu as a pitching option
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Justin Turner
GPP Note: Mini-stacks and one-offs if you’re not playing Archer on the other side
New York Yankees @ San Francisco Giants
Odds: NYY -127, 6.5 o/u
This game easily has the lowest implied run total and I have quite a bit of interest in both of these pitching options. Paxton and Bumgarner both make a case to be played here tonight, Paxton might be my favorite pitching option on the slate.
NYY 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: One-offs only
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Can I N to the O?
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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