Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Early Slate:
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Odds: Pit -122, o/u 7.0
This game has pitchers duel written all over it and both pitchers are in play here given the implied run total. Neither offense is particularly interesting to me. It does look like there will be some weather in the area, so make sure to keep an eye on the Weather Station for a final word on the situation.
Ari 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: I have more interest in Taillon than this offense
Pit 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Again, more interest in Greinke here
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Odds:
As usual, we don’t have a total on this game yet, as I write this the night before. Vegas normally waits until the day of to dictate odds on Cubs home games because the wind plays such a massive role. Right now it looks like it will be blowing in at just 4 mph, so not a big issue either way. I think Stripling is a good pitching option here, but I’ll be stacking up the Dodgers against Jon Lester.
LAD 5-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Justin Turner, AJ Pollock, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Corey Seager
GPP Note: I like them as a stack on the early slate, and gpp stack on all day
CHC 5-star plays: Javier Baez
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: I would rather target one-offs here
Atlanta Braves @ Cinncinati Reds
Odds: Cin -140, 9.0 o/u
This is another game where we have a lot of weather, as of the night before this looks like it could be the biggest trouble spot on the slate. Be sure to keep an eye on that Weather Station. If it ends up being all clear, both pitchers are pretty interesting here. Luis Castillo has some good swing and miss stuff, but a scary Braves lineup to try and deal with. The Research Station below shows his swinging strike rate and strikeout rate…
Atl 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: One-offs only for me
Cin 5-star plays: Jesse Winker, Joey Votto
4-star plays: Eugenio Saurez, Yasiel Puig
GPP Note: MME stack only, one-offs for single entry and cash
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Main Slate:
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
I also head to the Research Station and check out the DFSA grades on the SP matchups on the day. Below are the top three grades of the day and the very right is where you can see two of the most important scores for my daily analysis. The Kscore is something that I value heavily when selecting a pitcher, as we know that strikeouts are king for pitchers in MLB DFS. Of the three, Nola and Smith have the highest scores and will be someone I have my eyes on here.
Finding pitchers to attack
You can use the carnage rating system in order to find pitchers to attack, or you can use a similar process I used with finding pitchers to target and use the Research Station. Let’s take a look at who has the lowest DFSA grades on the day:
These three guys will be pitchers that I look to target offenses against on tonight’s slate, normally when you see red anywhere in the Research Station it’s not particularly good, but we can spin that as a good thing for the opposing offenses for these three guys.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Odds: Phi -198, 7.5 o/u
I love Aaron Nola here, he’s struggled a bit this season but had a good outing last game and Miami tends to fix any pitching problems you may have. Only having an implied run total of 3.1, you can avoid the Miami side here. Philly has some interesting one-offs, but I won’t be stacking against Caleb Smith, he’s got some good stuff.
Mia 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Hard no
Phi 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto (DK)
GPP Note: One-offs only for me
Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox
Odds: Bos -192, 9.5 o/u
I have zero interest in either of these pitchers. The Tigers are a large field GPP stack only, while the Red Sox are one of the better stacks on the slate.
Det 5-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Miggy Cabrera
GPP Note: Large field GPP stack only
Bos 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley Jr.
GPP Note: One of the best stacks on the slate
Cleveland Indians @ Houston Astros
Odds:
Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole will duel this one out in what should be a good pitchers night. I don’t have much interest in any bats here and you can make a case for Cole as the best pitching option of the day.
Cle 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: No thanks
Hou 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, George Springer
GPP Note: One-offs only if you really want to get exposure to this team, but Bauer is tough
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New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
Odds: NYY -118, 8.0 o/u
I like Tanaka as a pitching option here, I really don’t like the Angels offense this season outside of Mike Trout. As for the Trevor Cahill, the Yankees are all sorts of banged up right now, but their young bats are hitting nicely. I likely won’t have much, if any, Cahill.
NYY 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier
GPP Note: Although I’m not high on Cahill, I’m also not huge on a Yankees stack, but they have a few nice one-off options
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Andrelton Simmons
GPP Note: One-offs only against Tanaka
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Odds: Sea -168, 8.5 o/u
Marco Gonzales could be a decent SP2 option on Draftkings given the matchup and ballpark, be sure to dig deeper into Nilly’s Carnage Report for a deeper dive on him. I do like the Mariners offense a good deal here and are right behind the Red Sox as one of the better stacks on the slate.
Tex 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Joey Gallo (if in the lineup)
GPP Note: This team struggles with lefties, no thanks
Sea 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Domingo Santana, Edwin Encarnacion
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Jay Bruce
GPP Note: Love the Mariners stack tonight
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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