Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process
A consistent process that works will help you complete your research in a timely fashion. Consistent processes also give you confidence to ride through the rough times a volatile sport like MLB will throw your direction. I have a simple process where I start with good pitchers, bad pitchers, and stackable offenses using the strong bats within. I explain in three quick steps…
Identifying Quality MLB Pitching
I will use a combination of Vegas odds, KScore (definition inside DFS Army), and DFSA Grade (also inside DFS Army) to find the best combination of all three at the cheapest price. I will find a great pitcher showing strength in all areas, and I will try to find a cheaper pitcher that doesn’t sacrifice too much in any of these categories. Some days I can find cheaper pitching. Other days, I’m paying all the way up. Every slate is a fingerprint, and we live with what the slate offers rather than force plays in just because we like them.
APR 23 Report – Large full slate without a lot of dominance just jumping at us. The theme for today will be “wide open.” Tons of possibilities. I treat these more like tourney slates, personally. Corbin is in Coors, but likely has the most upside if we play this slate out 100 times. Swanson has no history, but might be great. I also don’t mind facing SD in SD in evenings. Maeda is fairly consistent, but he’s a bit pricey for what you get by comparison to the cheaper guys. Thornton can be very boom or bust but draws a less than intimidating Giants squad. And, Margevicius isn’t someone I’m looking to target, but if I ran out 150 lineups, I’ll have more shares of him than many others on this slate.
Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses
When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators. Look at all that green circled! These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble). To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.
APR 23 Report – Stacking against really bad pitching isn’t really popping up like a bright green flag, either. I’m beginning to think there are a lot of plus matchups, but not a lot of super plus matchups. I do like TB and CWS tonight, but after that, there are a lot of teams in good spots and it will be hard to narrow them all down. Tonight feels like a night to chase homeruns independent of correlation and stacking. ISO might be an important metric to watch tonight, especially if you have a tool that can give you ISO on a short sample to pick up the truly hot bats right now.
How To Find MLB Hitters – Trending wOBA
Here is a page in DFS Army’s Research Station from which you can build entire lineups. Trending wOBA…specifically the L7 column. I’m a huge believer in MLB hot streaks. And, I will ride them off and on all year. People will shout that a guy is heating up or cooling off, but I prefer to watch this column over listening to the voices. I won’t miss a guy by more than about 3 days. If he gets hot, I’ll see it soon enough, and jump on board then. And, I’ll get off a formerly hot player faster than most now, too. Remember, pricing trails production in DFS, and it goes up much faster than it comes down. When a guy is running hot, he’s usually underpriced. And, when he cools off, he stays overpriced for a long time. Use this tab to help you figure that out………..and ask me inside our coaching channels as a VIP. This is my foundational building block for the next 6 months…..and it only takes a week to populate.
Filtered yesterday to show your Drafktings guys <3500 in salary with at least 10 plate appearances on the year. We are going to need value today, and our Research Station allows you to find it in mere seconds once you have access to the tool and know how to manipulate it a little.
CWS White Sox @ BAL Orioles
Odds: CWS -130, 10 o/u
I love CWS tonight largely due to BAL generally giving runs liberally. When I look at Cashner’s 5+ SIERA, I get a little more excited. When I see tonight’s huge slate of cadillac names, I realize I might be one of the few on a team in a great spot when others might be elsewhere……….and I like the spot even more. Just sayin.
CWS 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Sanchez, McCann, Castillo, Moncada
GPP note – might be one of the few on this stack…
BAL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – none
ARI Diamondbacks @ PIT Pirates
Odds: PIT -125, 7.5 o/u
Well, the lower total didn’t work last night. I won’t be utterly shocked if we see runs again, but I’m not seeing enough on a large slate to really want to target this game specifically.
ARI 5 Star Plays – Walker
4 Star Plays – Escobar
GPP note – none
PIT 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – none
SFG Giants @ TOR Blue Jays
Odds: TOR -120, 8.5 o/u
Another game I’m not highly interested in outside of shares of the TOR pitcher, Trent Thornton for some gpp upside. Nothing about the bats here excite me other than a bump for TOR for scoring a lot of runs over the last 2 weeks. They are playable, but there are better options out there in my opinion. If I was using the 150 max MME gpps, I’d definitely have shares. But, even in 20 max, they aren’t one of my favorite “must have” targets.
SFG 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note –none
TOR 5 Star Plays – Smoak
4 Star Plays – Drury, Sogard
GPP note – none
KC Royals @ TB Rays
Odds: no current line
Tampa has scored the 3rd most runs over the last 2 weeks. Add in that KC has given up the 6th most runs and we have a nice spot for Tampa again. They are likely my main stack until they become so chalky I can fade them, they become overpriced, or they just cool off. I see none of those shenanigans tonight and plan to load up again.
KC 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – none
TB 5 Star Plays – Zunino, Choi
4 Star Plays – Pham, Garcia
GPP note – I will have quite a few shares of stacks on this slate as they just keep scoring runs.
DET Tigers @ BOS Red Sox
Odds: no current line for game 2
Game 2 of a doubleheader always requires a little caution. How the first game plays affects everyone but the starter. Players will sit and value players will find key roles in lineups. But, you just have to wait for the lineup to be released to really dive in. Here are some names I’ll be watching for, though…
DET 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Greiner, Hicks, Beckham
GPP note – don’t know I’ll stack it here
BOS 5 Star Plays – JD Martinez
4 Star Plays – Moreland
GPP note – I don’t see myself going nuts given the offense isn’t exactly on fire.
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PHI Phillies @ NYM Mets
Odds: NYM -140, 8.5 o/u
Both teams get a little bump here through their entire series. NYM are giving up runs, even with their starting pitching. PHI is giving runs, too, but NYM are also scoring runs putting them in a pretty solid DFS spot even with Eflin and Wheeler on the mound. It won’t be my primary spot, but I will look for some tiny exposure just in case this one erupts.
PHI 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Hernandez
GPP note – none
NYM 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Conforto, Alonso
GPP note – none
MIL Brewers @ STL Cardinals
Odds: STL -130, 8.5 o/u
This season series is already in its 9th game. Through the first 8, watch this…………MIL has an ERA of 6.20+, STL 5.90+, the teams have combined for some 98 runs and 25+ homers. The pitching has been beaten up and the bats have been in launch mode on both sides. Will it continue? For DFS, I’m going to have shares in case it does. Davies is MIL’s best pitcher, but his numbers in our research station indicate he’s vulnerable. Daniel Ponce de Leon is a wild card and I can’t pay my bills trying to predict what he’ll do. I will say, though, Christian Yelich has been a Cardinal-killer, but bear in mind, all of his homers have been at home (MIL is on the road) and he is batting only .244 on the road this year…
MIL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Thames, Yelich, Braun
GPP note – none
STL 5 Star Plays – Fowler…just too cheap
4 Star Plays – Martinez, Goldschmidt, DeJong, Ozuna, Wong
GPP note – easy stack for me…and I can’t believe I’m going to, but I will have 75% of Fowler everywhere tonight being he can’t hurt me at this price if he duds.
LAD Dodgers @ CHC Cubs
Odds: CHC -115, no total
This should be a game I’m highly interested in, but I’m not. Neither team is doing much by comparison on this slate. Maeda is in play for me, but the bats largely aren’t right now. I just have too many other options I like better. I won’t be shocked to see some offensive outburst, but I don’t think the combination of value and performance is as likely.
LAD 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Pederson, Seager
GPP note – none
CHC 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Baez, Bote
GPP note – nothing making me run into this game
MIN Twins @ HOU Astros
Odds: HOU -145, 9.5 o/u
MIN is scoring the 2nd most runs over the past 2 weeks? It’s true. You might want to pay some attention to them. HOU is both scoring runs (5th) and MIN is giving them up (8th) putting the Stros in a very solid spot tonight. I will be favoring some stacking on either side of this one provided I can find a few bats. If not, I’ll happily one-off them all over my lineups.
MIN 5 Star Plays – Garver
4 Star Plays – Rosario, Cruz, Schoop
GPP note – Several names contributing right now……yep, consider stacking
HOU 5 Star Plays – Reddick, Bregman
4 Star Plays – Brantley, White
GPP note – I see four viable names with other great players like Altuve and Correa…..I’ll be stacking
You see above you a unique to DFS Army members metric combining hard contact with BABIP to measure which players are hitting the ball hard but not seeing the typical results. The gamble here is normalization of their numbers and a pending hot streak. Last night, it worked well with 9 of the 20 players hitting home runs and having solid games. More importantly to me is I get a nearly 50% shot at a homer, but none of these players put up a 0 last night. MLB is about avoiding 0s, and this is a list capable of producing great cores and one-offs alike.
WAS Nationals @ COL Rockies
Odds: WAS -130, 10 o/u
Not the highest total we’ve seen for a Coors Field game, but we can still bank on DFS players flocking to it anyway. I don’t see much on the COL side, and I’ll just sit patiently waiting for them to heat up this year…..they will. But, the WAS side is a little more attractive in that they are swinging decent bats right now and should be able to apply a little Coors bonus on their already humming offense.
WAS 5 Star Plays – Adams
4 Star Plays – Dozier, Zimmerman (if starting)
GPP note – never sneaky when in Coors
COL 5 Star Plays – Tapia…….super cheap if starting
4 Star Plays – Wolters, Arenado
GPP note – I won’t get nuts with stacking Rockies tonight….but I do like Arenado as a one-off if I can make it happen.
NYY Yankees @ LAA Angels
Odds: NYY -120, 8.5 o/u
The Yankees are in a great matchup tonight, but injuries have just crushed this team. They are the Yankees, so I don’t really feel bad for them, but I will take note of the adversity they are being handed early this year. The Angels won’t likely be on my radar tonight.
NYY 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Frazier, Gardner, Tauchman
GPP note – none
LAA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – none
TEX Rangers @ OAK Athletics
Odds: OAK – 150, 8 o/u
TEX is both scoring runs and giving them up. This puts them in a decent spot, but also pulls OAK into the mix as well. Not usually a great hitting environment, this does feel a little sneaky tonight. I don’t know that I’ll just pile in a bunch of exposure, but I won’t be surprised to see quite a few runs coming out of this one at the end of the night.
TEX 5 Star Plays – Gallo
4 Star Plays – Choo, Cabrera
GPP note – Gallo is a great gpp one-off, but our research station showed me this morning that Choo is in a historically good spot for him. He’s currently hitting well, but he also carries a very high ISO vs the handedness of Montas. And, Montas has given up a very high ISO to Choo’s handedness. We call this a #200on200 play and it often points out sneaky home run calls………
OAK 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Chapman
GPP note – none
SEA Mariners @ SD Padres
Odds: SD -140, 8 o/u
SEA has finally cooled off and dropped completely out of the top 10 in scoring offenses across the league over the last 2 weeks. So what? When tracking shorter samples like I do, I don’t stay on that train for too long. Same will happen with Tampa and I’ll hop my little butt off that train pretty quickly, too, when it does. Short samples allow you to chase hot streaks all over the league and neither of these teams are on one. I can sit this one out.
SEA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – none
SDP 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – none
Starting Lineups for every game! And, complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades. You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up. Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today….
Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…
Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs. However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you. Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition. There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!
GPP Sleeper stack = TBR/CWS – I see these two teams as under the radar plays still. With all the options across the slate, I will lean more on these two and sprinkle in other mixtures. You need to get in the habit of targeting a few teams, too. When it works, you have very good nights. When it doesn’t, you don’t. That’s baseball…..embrace the variance.
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our MLB coaching rooms all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process a few times a week, and with a little more time, VIP strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed and profitable day.
