Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Showdown Slate:
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
Odds: Chi -158
It looks like this game is going to be very cold and very windy. We don’t have a total on it yet due to the wind, but right now (the night before) it looks like the wind will be blowing in from left field at over 20 mph. If this is the case, we will want to target both pitchers pretty heavily here. Keep an eye on the Weather Station for updates before the game though.
Ari 5-star plays: David Peralta
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Adam Jones, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: The wind is the key thing here, tough to stack a team when the wind is blowing in that heavily
Chi 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez
4-star plays: Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Same goes for the Cubs, the wind will dictate my stance on this game.
Main Slate:
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for the main slate of games. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- Carlos Rodon – The Carnage Rating on Rodon is very intriguing here. He gets a Detroit team that isn’t exactly full of big boppers. However, this is another weather game, the Weather Station will be very popular today as it looks like a lot of the country has either some rain or wind going on. I often don’t target pitchers in games that have any in-game delay risk due to the risk that they won’t come back out after the delay. However, if this game gets the all clear, Rodon is, at least, an intriguing play.
- Caleb Smith – Smith is a bright spot on a really bad team, but he draws a tough matchup in the Nats. Smith is the real deal and has a nice Kscore here to go along with his home ballpark which is very nice to pitching. Smith has a K% of nearly 27% this season according to the Research Station, however, the Nationals are making contact at a 78.1% rate this season, so we will need to take the good with the bad here.
- Vincent Velasquez – A pitcher in Coors on a 14 game slate is really going to have to prove me something in order for me to warrant going there. The Kscore really isn’t there and neither is the SIERA, but the wOBA and Carnage Ratings are nice. He’s extremely cheap because of the matchup and field, but I’d probably only go there in large field GPPs.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the main slate:
Jason Vargas is not good… so the Cardinals are in a very good spot here. The Cardinals have a hard contact percentage of over 40% in 2018-19. They have a few lefty mashers in their lineup and a few guys who are extremely hot, including Marcell Ozuna, Paul Goldschmidt, and Kolten Wong. Houston gets a matchup with Drew Smyly who is second lowest on the Carnage Report. I’m expecting Houston to be one of the higher owned stacks on the slate given the pitcher and the ballpark. The Astros have an implied run total of 5.8 runs here, don’t be afraid to stack em up. Finally, the Dodgers struggled against Zach Davies last night and will get Jhoulys Chacin in tonight’s matchup. The Dodgers have been killing right-handed pitching this season, check out these numbers…
Those are #NOTGOOD for Chacin’s chances. Look for the Dodgers to take advantage tonight. With that said, let’s get to the rest of the games on this massive Friday slate!
Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles
Odds: Min -185, o/u 8.5
Jose Berrios will likely be a pitcher I look to have some exposure on, so I won’t have much, if any, of the Orioles offense here. For the Twins, they have an implied total of 5 runs and get a matchup with Alex Cobb. I like the Twins as a sneaky stack in this spot.
Min 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: I like the Twins as a pivot off of some of the chalkier stacks tonight.
Bal 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: You don’t need to go here on a 14 game slate.
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Odds: Pit -112, o/u 7.5
This game only has a total set at 7.5 as of now, I don’t expect there to be a ton of offense meaning we can look at the pitchers. I think both Jordan Lyles and Madison Bumgarner can have a case be made for them, I won’t talk you off of either of them in this spot.
SF 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Steven Duggar
GPP Note: No need to go with either of these teams on this slate
Pit 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Starlin Marte, Francisco Cervelli (DK)
GPP Note: No need to go here either.
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees
Odds: NYY -176, o/u 9.0
This is another game that we’re going to want to watch the Weather Station on, there looks to be some rain in the forecast along with some heavy winds. Given the ballpark and these offenses, I have zero interest in either pitcher. The Royals are always a sneaky stack as they have a decent combination of speed and power. While the Yankees aren’t exactly healthy, but still consist of a lot of pop in the order.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Nice GPP stack
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Luke Voit
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Also a decent GPP stack
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Odds:
I would have to think this is Ryan Yarbrough’s game after Stanek gets things started, but we can’t guarantee that, as the Rays have been a bit unpredictable this season. Either way, I don’t have interest in either of these pitchers. The Rays are swinging the bat great as a unit and the Red Sox offense is one of the better lineups in the league.
Bos 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: I love a mini-stack of Betts and Martinez against lefties if you can afford it, and will likely be way under-owned.
TB 5-star plays: Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Yandy Diaz, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: I’ll probably jump off the Rays stack here.
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Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Odds: Det -110, o/u 8.0
As I mentioned earlier, there is a good amount of weather to worry about here, so keep an eye on that Weather Station. If it’s all systems go I like the White Sox as a large field GPP stack, but I don’t feel the need to go with the Tigers tonight.
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Yonder Alonso
4-star plays: Leury Garcia
GPP Note: Deep GPPs only
Det 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: One-offs only
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Odds: Was -120, o/u 7.5
Of the pitchers in this game, I actually have more interest in Caleb Smith. Although I won’t have any Anibal Sanchez, I don’t want to be playing much of the Marlins either. The Nationals do have a couple of guys who mash lefties, so they’re playable here.
Was 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman
4-star plays: Brian Dozier, Juan Soto
GPP Note: I’d rather go with one-offs here
Mia 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No thanks
Atlanta Braves @ Cleveland Indians
Odds: Cle -154, o/u 7.5
Corey Kluber has been fairly bad this season, and really only has one very solid start. I don’t think I’ll be targeting him here, but I likely won’t have much of the Braves offense either. I’m going to take this game as a bit of a study game and see how Kluber does against a pretty solid Braves lineup. Touki Toussaint, however, is really intriguing to me at a really cheap price tag. The Indians lineup isn’t what it used to be, I like Toussaint as a lower owned mid-range SP2.
Atl 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna
GPP Note: Not against Kluber
Cle 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: I’ll go elsewhere with my stacking
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Odds: Hou -230, o/u 9.5
Verlander is one of the better pitching options on the slate, however, he struggled in his first matchup with the Rangers this season, so he’s not a slam dunk by any means. With that said, I won’t have many Rangers. While the Astros are one of the better stacks on the slate.
Hou 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Michael Brantley
GPP Note: One of the better stacks of the night
Tex 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I have zero interest in picking on Verlander
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Odds: LAD -122, o/u 9.5
As I touched on earlier, the Dodgers are killing right-handed pitching this season, I certainly won’t be talking you off of them if you want to go there. The Brewers have one of the best offenses in the league, but get a tough matchup with Ross Stripling here.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Max Muncy, AJ Pollock, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Up there as one of the better stacks tonight
Mil 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal (DK), Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: The Brewers are stackable on most nights, but I’ll likely stick to one-offs here
New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals
Odds: Stl -143, 9.0 o/u
I don’t have any interest in either of these pitchers, but both these offenses are interesting. I like the Cardinals a lot given the matchup, and the Mets have some nice pieces as well against an aging Wainwright.
NYM 5-star plays: Peter Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Robinson Cano
GPP Note: Sneaky GPP stack
Stl 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Vargas is a gas can, stack em up
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies
Odds: Col -128, 10.0 o/u
Both of these teams have decent pitchers going, but Vincent Velasquez is clearly the worse of the two. I don’t know that I’ll have a lot of Marquez tonight, but I certainly won’t be picking on him. The Rockies showed signs of life last night if you can find the salary I don’t mind a stack here.
Phi 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: This offense is lethal, but it’s a tough matchup
Col 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl
GPP Note: One of the better stacks on the slate
Seattle Mariners @ Anaheim Angels
Odds: LAA -115, o/u 9.0
Marco Gonzales is an interesting SP2 here, the Angels lineup really isn’t that scary outside of Trout. The Mariners are another good stack on this slate as they draw Felix Pena on the mound and are one of the hottest lineups in the MLB.
Sea 5-star plays: Mallex Smith, Jay Bruce, Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Domingo Santana, Edwin Encarnacion
GPP Note: Great stack if you can afford it
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No thanks, stick with Trout
Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics
Odds: Oak -130, o/u 8.5
I love watching Marcus Stroman pitch, he’s one of my favorite pitchers in the league. He’s been decent this season, but the A’s lineup is scary. I won’t have much of Stroman here, I would rather attack the A’s offense. Even though the Jays get a nice matchup with Aaron Brooks, any team with Eric Sogard hitting leadoff isn’t really in play for me on a 14 game slate.
Tor 5-star plays: Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: One-offs only
Oak 5-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Stephen Piscotty, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Nice GPP stack
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres
Odds: SD -138, 8.0 o/u
Neither of these pitchers is all that intriguing, a case can be made for Desclafani, but I think there are better spots. I have a small amount of interest in the Padres offense, but I’ll likely fade the Reds in this spot.
Cin 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: One-offs only
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Wil Myers, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Large field GPP option
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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