Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for the early slate of games. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- Blake Snell – Snell is the best pitcher on the early slate and it’s really not close. A Kscore of over 750 is phenomenal and one of the highest we’ve seen this season. Not only this but he gets an absolutely brutal Toronto Blue Jays lineup who has struggled all year long. With a Carnage Rating of 1.53, I plan on having a lot of Blake Snell here.
- Zach Eflin – We just saw Jake Arrieta go out and put up a great game against the Marlins in their home park. The thing with Eflin is he struggles with left-handed bats, so that’s the first thing I look at it in the opposing lineup. The Marlins will likely trot out three, Granderson, Walker (Switch hitter), and JT Riddle. None of these guys really scare me, this is a good spot for Eflin who has pitched well this year.
- Michael Pineda – This looks like it will be Michael Pineda and not Berrios here. Look for an update early in the morning on the Carnage Report, as it will likely get ran again for Pineda. He is in a good spot here, as the Tigers only have a 3.4 implied run total. Pineda is normally a guy that is pretty boom or bust and better GPP play than anything.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the early slate:
Ohhhhhh Andrew Cashner, how we meet again. Cashner is a guy that always seems to pitch well when I stack against him, but he’s simply not a good pitcher. The thing he does well is limits the big inning, with that said the Red Sox have an implied run total of 6.5 which is ridiculous. The Red Sox are easily the best stack on the slate in terms of cash games. The Angels will continue their series at Wrigley, where the wind seems to have died down, but still looks to be blowing out to right field at about 10 mph. Kyle Hendricks has really struggled this year, but the Angels lineup is really hard to look at without Trout in there. Finally, the Baltimore Orioles have an implied run total of 4.1 and get a nice ballpark playing in Fenway. Rick Porcello has given up 11 runs in two starts this season, if you think his struggles continue, don’t shy away from the O’s.
Early Slate:
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Odds: Bos -250, 10.5 o/u
As I just mentioned, I like both of these teams here. Especially the Red Sox who have an implied run total of 6.5 and get a gas can in Andrew Cashner. The Orioles are in a sneaky spot, as people may avoid them because of name recognition with Rick Porcello. Not someone I’m stacking in cash, but very viable for GPP. There is also the whole Chris Davis debacle on FanDuel, you have to consider him at that price tag in this park if he’s in the lineup. I don’t like getting a zero if he doesn’t crack the lineup, however.
Balt 5-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini, Chris Davis (FanDuel if starting)
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Chris Davis (DK), Rio Ruiz
GPP Note: Sneaky stack on the early slate that may get overlooked.
Bos 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, JD Martinez
4-stary plays: Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley
GPP Note: One, if not the best, stack of the day.
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees
Odds: NYY -175, 9.5 o/u
Neither of these pitchers is particularly interesting to me. The Yankees are certainly in play as a stack, while the White Sox are a secondary stack, just because of their lineup.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Brett Gardner, Greg Bird
GPP Note: Very solid pivot off the likely chalky Red Sox
Chi 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Leury Garcia, Wellington Castillo, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: GPP stack given the park and pitcher matchup
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Odds: Min -190, 8.0 o/u
Tyson Ross is coming off of a really nice game against the Royals, but I like this spot for the Twins offense. I think the Tigers can safely be avoided, they’re only implied for 3.4 runs here in a relatively difficult matchup against Michael Pineda who can turn it up when he gets hot.
Det 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: I would just stick with one-offs here, not a great stack in my opinion.
Minn 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: They rank above the Orioles and White Sox, but below the Red Sox and Yankees just to get a perspective on how I feel about them.
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago Cubs
Odds: Chi -180
It’s important to keep an eye on the Weather Station here to get an idea of the wind. If the wind is blowing out it’s a major boost to hitters. If it’s blowing in, it’s a major boost to pitchers, and if it’s blowing across the field it’s a wash. I will say, neither of these pitchers scare me, so if the wind is right, I’m willing to stack both these teams.
LAA 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note: Both of these lineups depend on the wind for me.
Chi 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note: Much like the Angels, depends on the wind here
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Odds: TB -188, 8.0 o/u
I’m a little surprised that the Rays aren’t favored by more here, but Blake Snell is my favorite pitcher on the slate and it’s not really close. The Rays offense is implied for 4.7 runs and Austin Meadows has been scorching hot, I don’t mind a stack for GPPs here.
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: GPP stack
Tor 5-star plays: Zero
4-star plays: Zilch
GPP Note: Nada
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Odds: SF -135, 7.0 o/u
As I write this, these two are playing in the 15th inning in a 3-3 ball game. This series has been very low scoring and I expect that to continue with two very good pitchers taking the mound. I have more interest in the pitchers than the offenses here.
Col 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: One-offs are fine, but not stacking here. Arenado has historically crushed lefties in his career.
SF 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Not a lot I like from this lineup.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
Odds: Was -125, 8.5 o/u
Chris Archer has pitched well this season, he is appealing his suspension and is the probable starter here. Anibal Sanchez, on the other hand, has been less than impressive. With that said, I don’t want to stack the Pirates, one-offs are the way to go from this game.
Pit 5-star plays: Francisco Cervelli (DK)
4-star plays: Starlin Marte
GPP Note: Not a big stacking fan of either of these teams today
Was 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Brian Dozier
GPP Note: Rendon and Soto are great one-offs, but again probably won’t stack here.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Odds: Phi -158, 8.0 o/u
As good as the Phillies offense is, I have some interest in both of these pitchers given the park. I like Eflin a bit more, but Caleb Smith is a nice GPP option. However, I won’t talk you off of a Phillies stack given the firepower in this lineup.
Phi 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: GPP stack
Mia 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Not a great offense and draws a tough draw against Eflin
Main Slate:
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Odds: Stl -130, 10.5 o/u
Both of these teams have an implied run total of over five and get to play in the Great American Smallpark. I’ll have interest in both sides of this stack, but the main slate is full of bad pitchers asking to be stacked against.
Stl 5-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: I like this team as a stack here
Cin 5-star plays: Joey Votto, Eugenio Saurez
4-star plays: Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Viable stack as well
Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals
Odds: Cle -120, 9.0 o/u
The Royals came out and destroyed Carlos Carrasco last night and get Jefry Rodriguez tonight. I love stacking the Royals because they love to run and the bottom of the lineup has some pop. Homer Bailey surprisingly has the highest Carnage Rating and Kscore of the main slate. I don’t know that I have the courage to go with him, but hey the strikeouts are probably going to be there.
Cle 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Jake Bauers, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Leonys Martin
GPP Note: Althoung Bailey ranks highly in the Carnage Report, I’d be more likely to stack against him than to pitch him here.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi
4-star plays: Alex Gordon, Jorge Soler, Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: Love the combination of speed and power in this lineup
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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Odds: Atl -132, 9.5 o/u
I’ve got a good amount of interest in Sean Newcomb here, given the rest of the pitching on this slate. The Mets have been hitting the ball well, but we have to pitch someone. I love the Braves here, anytime they play a lefty I have interest stacking. The Braves are a lot like the Royals, they have a good combo of speed and power.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Peter Alonso
GPP Note: I have more interest in Sean Newcomb here
Atl 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Love the Braves here.
Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers
Odds: Oak -120, 11.0 o/u
This should come as no surprise, but the A’s are in play again tonight. It looks like there could be some weather issues in this one, so keep an eye on the Weather Station.
Oak 5-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Kendrys Morales
GPP Note: Stack is in play again here, the wind will be blowing out. Keep an eye on the rest of the weather just in case there is a delay or ppd risk.
Tex 5-star plays: Nomar Mazara, Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo
4-star plays: Rougned Odor
GPP Note: Marco Estrada is a fly ball pitcher against a fly ball team with the wind blowing out, I like the Rangers here.
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Odds: Ari -115, 9.0 o/u
Both of these pitchers are below average, I like the Padres offense here. But, we can’t play all the offenses, they rank below most of the stacks on this slate.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: GPP stack
Ari 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like the Padres side much better
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
Odds: Hou -194, 9.5 o/u
Justin Verlander is the most expensive pitcher on the day and I have zero interest in the Mariners bats. However, Felix Hernandez is washed and the Astros are right up there as a top stack on the slate, the ballpark kind of stinks though.
Hou 5-star plays: George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: I like the Braves better, but they’re right behind them.
Sea 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No thanks
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Although I don’t think Zach Davies is a great pitcher, he’s pitched well this season and has been able to limit damage. This will likely be a bullpen game for the Dodgers, and the Milwaukee bats are hot. I’ll be stacking the Brewers a lot this season, and this is one of those spots.
Mil 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Right up there with the Braves, A’s and Astros as the top stack on the main slate
LAD 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy
GPP Note: GPP stack
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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