Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Showdown Slate:
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Implied Run Total –
Chicago Implied Run Total –
I’m going to start this breakdown by going over the one and only early game. We don’t have a run total in this game, but it is expected to be a big wind game again. This time it is projected to be blowing out to dead center at over 20 mph, this is a massive boost to bats. But, keep an eye on the Weather Station, as Chicago wind can change in a heartbeat. If this is the case, it will be extremely hard to trust either pitcher here, for the showdown slate I might just go with a full hitter lineup, to be honest. Be sure to check out the coach’s notes on this one as well if building a showdown lineup.
Chicago 5-star plays: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Wilson Contreras
Chicago 4-star plays: Albert Almora, Anthony Rizzo, Jayson Heyward
GPP Note: A full stack is certainly in play here if the wind holds.
Angels 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Zack Cozart
Angels 4-star plays: Andrelton Simmons, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: Full stack is in play here as well, but this team isn’t as great against lefties, but still a good spot.
Main Slate:
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for the early slate of games. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- Trent Thornton – Thornton has looked good this season, scoring at least 19.8 Draftkings points in both of his starts. The Kscore is nice here, however, he gets a really hot Ray’s offense. He grades out phenomenal in each and every stat in the Carnage Report, so I’ll have some interest here.
- Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco is the most expensive pitcher on the slate and is coming off a very nice 30 point fantasy game against the Blue Jays. There are a solid amount of strikeouts in the Royals lineup, but if they get on base they can and will run early and often. Carrasco is one of the top options on the slate regardless.
- Jake Arrieta – Arrieta is never my favorite pitcher to roster, but he couldn’t have asked for a better matchup. He’s not a big strikeout guy which results in a low Kscore. But being in Miami, I don’t have an issue with a lower score. Miami is one of the best pitcher ballparks around and the Marlins offense is not good. He makes for a nice option here.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the early slate:
Oakland keeps drawing great matchups and will be a popular stack for what feels like the 47th day in a row. They have an implied run total of 5.5 here in a great matchup. The Giants stand out as a good stack, but do we really want to trust this Giants lineup to win us something? Finally, the Mets pop as a team to target against Kyle Wright who has six walks in two starts. If the Mets can get some guys on board and hit a few home runs, this could be very profitable.
Now let’s dig into the rest of the games on the slate!
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
Odds: Was -174, 8.0 o/u
This game features two pitchers that are very serviceable. An eight-run total is not a game that you want to be targeting bats in. These two pitchers could interesting, but it looks like there will be some weather issues here, keep an eye on the Weather Station has the day goes on. I normally try and stay away from pitchers that have a possibility of in-game delays, because once that game gets delayed the pitcher is done for the day in all likelihood.
Pitt 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I don’t see any reason to want to target Corbin here on a huge Friday night slate.
Was 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Adam Eaton
GPP Note: Go with the lefties, if anyone here.
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees
Odds: NY -230, 9.5 o/u
This game is supposed to have some weather issues as well, so again I’m staying away from the starting pitchers here unless we get the all clear from the Weather Station. If we do get the all clear, I do have some interest in J.A. Happ as he has a Carnage Rating of 3.9 and has some decent strikeout upside here. Lucas Giolito can be avoided in Yankee Stadium, and feel free to stack up them Yankees.
Chi 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Deep GPP stack at best, just because of the ballpark upside.
NYY 5-star plays: Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Greg Bird
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit
GPP Note: A full stack is in play here, but keep an eye on the weather.
Tamba Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Odds: TB -125, 8.5 o/u
I’ve got some Thornton interest here so I won’t be targeting a ton of Rays, but it’s hard to ignore how scorching hot Austin Meadows is. The Blue Jays offense is just bad right now, I would leave them for deep GPP stacks only.
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Deep GPP stack only, given that I’ll have some Thornton here.
Tor 5-star play: None
4-star play: None
GPP Note: Deep GPP stack, just a bad offense right now.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Odds: Phi -170, 8.5 o/u
I like the Phillies as a sneaky stack here, people tend to avoid offenses in Marlins Park, but I have some interests against Alcantara on the mound. They have an implied total of 4.9, which is rare in this ballpark.
Phi 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: I like this spot for the Phillies and think they could make for a sneaky stack.
Mia 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: It’s a no from me dawg.
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Odds: Bos -280, 10 o/u
Eduardo Rodriguez can flash some upside, but in this park, I think both of these pitchers are ones we can target. Boston will be a popular stack here, and Baltimore provides a cheap GPP stack.
Bal 5-star plays: Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Jonathon Villar
GPP Note: GPP stack if you’re feeling lucky.
Bos 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: This will be one of the most popular stacks on the slate.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Odds: Atl -116, 9.0 o/u
I don’t have any interest in either of these pitchers which puts both of these offenses into play. The Braves are a fun team to stack, as they can run and hit home runs with the best of them. The Mets are pounding the ball, especially Peter Alonso and Michael Conforto.
NYM 5-star plays: Peter Alonso, Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Robinson Cano
GPP Note: Sneaky stack.
Atl 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ender Inciarte, Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: GPP stack, cheap up top if Inciarte is leading off.
Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers
Odds: Oak -120, 10.5 o/u
The A’s are scorching hot right now, being led by Khris Davis who has four home runs in his last two games. They get a great matchup here and are one of the best stacks on the board. The Rangers are also viable, as Mike Fiers has a Carnage Rating below 5.
Oak 5-star plays: Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman, Khris Davis
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder
GPP Note: Up there as one of the top stacks on the slate.
Tex 5-star plays: Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: More of a GPP stack, but still in a great spot.
Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals
Odds: Cle -148, 7.5 o/u
You could make a case for some of Cleveland’s bats, but the Royals are projected to be under 3.5 runs here against one of the better pitchers on the slate.
Cle 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Jake Bauers
GPP Note: I won’t talk you off of a GPP stack here.
KC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: I’ll never talk you off of a Merrifield and Mondesi mini-stack
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Odds: SD -122, 8.5 o/u
I’ve got some interest in the Padres offense here, but I’ll take a wait and see approach on Christopher Paddack, as he could be one of the best young arms in the league.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers
GPP Note: GPP stack that will be pretty low owned
Ari 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No thanks
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Odds: LAD -145, 8.0 o/u
I stacked the Brewers a lot while they were playing the Angels, but Urias is a good, young arm I’ll jump off here other than large field GPPs. Corbin Burnes has struggled to start the season but is a good pitcher with good stuff. The Dodgers aren’t my favorite stack on the board, but there’s no denying how good they are.
Mil 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Ryan Braun
GPP Note: Ryan Braun crushes lefties, I don’t mind a mini-stack with him and Yelich. Also a homecoming for Yasmani Grandal.
LAD 5-star plays: Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Second tier stack for me, but a lot of talent.
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
Odds: Hou -148, 9.0 o/u
Wade Miley actually pitched really well for the Brewers last season, I expect him to limit the damage against a potentially popular Mariners team. I love Houston here, I would rank them just behind the Red Sox and Athletics in terms of stacks.
Hou 5-star plays: George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Tyler White
GPP Note: One of the better stacks on the slate
Sea 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion
GPP Note: Large field GPP play for me
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Odds: SF -125, 8.0
These two teams combined for one run last night, I see no need to attack any of the bats here. Although a Giants stack is playable for large field tournaments in hopes of taking something massive down. Drew Pomeranz may be a little risky here, but so was Jeff Samardzija last night.
Col 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Go elsewhere with your stacks
SF 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Nobody stands out to me here, but the Carnage Rating is intriguing on Chad Bettis on the mound.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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