Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner.
Above are the top three pitchers in Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report for the early slate of games. When it comes to MLB, strikeouts are king, so the KSCORE is something I take into consideration very heavily. But let’s break these three down, shall we…
- Sonny Gray – Gray gets a phenomenal matchup with a very weak Miami lineup. He obviously draws the best carnage rating, but that KSCORE is a little low for my liking. Gray has had two completely opposite outcomes this season. Both of his starts came against a Pirates team that doesn’t strikeout much. The first start he was only able to go 2.2 innings and coming out with -4.00 Draftkings points. However, he quickly bounced back with a 6.2 inning game and going for 25.2 Draftkings points. The matchup puts him firmly in play here for me.
- Spencer Turnbull – Turnbull has easily the highest KSCORE of this group (and on the early slate as a whole) and draws a depleted Indians team. The Indians have an implied total of 4 runs here, and the wind is supposed to be heavily blowing in as of now, keep an eye on the Weather Station for any updates on that. Turnbull has 15 strikeouts through two starts this season, I love his upside here.
- Mike Leake – This is the one I’m a little skeptic on… but I can’t deny his performance this season. He’s gone over 20 Draftkings points in both his starts, one of them being against the Red Sox. The big thing here for me is, again, the wind is supposed to be blowing out at over 20 mph. However, I’m not the weather specialist, but this is one I really want to keep my eye on -> Weather Station.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the early slate:
It looks like the Oakland stacks will be hot and heavy again today, after exploding for 10 runs last night. The Orioles pitching staff could obviously use some help. The Athletics are tied for a slate high implied total of 5.3 runs with the Mariners. We also see those Mariners pop up here, as they get to face Jorge Lopez and the Kansas City Royals. I mentioned that the wind could come into play here, maybe it helps push a few of those balls over the fence. Finally, the Dodgers have been absolutely destroying the ball this season. All of these teams have stack potential on them, be sure to check out the coaching sheets for their favorites. Two big things I look at when it comes to hitters and stacks is ISO and wOBA, as they tend to give me an idea on how a batter grades out against a certain pitcher.
Now let’s dig into the rest of the games on the slate!
Oakland Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
Oakland Implied Run Total – 5.3
Baltimore Implied Run Total – 4.3
As I already mentioned, the A’s are one of the best lineups to target for the early slate, as they will be drawing Dylan Bundy on the mound. There’s not much to dislike about this team in this spot. Baltimore, on the other hand, isn’t that great of an offense, but get’s to take on a young pitcher. I don’t hate the idea of a stack here, but only for deep GPP’s.
Oakland 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, Jurickson Profar
Oakland 4-star plays: Robbie Grossman, Stephen Piscotty, Kendrys Morales
GPP Note: The A’s are one of the top stacks on the slate, don’t be afraid to target them from top to bottom.
Baltimore 5-star plays: None
Baltimore 4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Jonothan Villar
GPP Note: Will likely be low owned if you want to go there in deep GPP’s
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
Miami Implied Run Total – 3.8
Cincinnati Implied Run Total – 4.8
We talked about Sonny Gray being one of the better pitching options here so I think we can avoid the Marlins. The Reds, on the other hand, provide some nice plays and could make for a nice GPP stack.
Miami 5-star plays: None
Miami 4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Miami is a very cheap stack in a hitter-friendly ballpark against a volatile pitcher, I don’t hate if you want to go with them here.
Cincinnati 5-star plays: Joey Votto, Eugenio Saurez
Cincinnati 4-star plays: Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler
GPP Note: The Reds are a nice little stack here, playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark against an unproven pitcher.
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Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Implied Run Total – 4
Detroit Implied Run Total – 3.6
I actually like Shane Bieber quite a bit here, and I expect the public will as well. He was popular in his last outing and put up 25 Draftkings points against the Blue Jays. He’s got a nice KSCORE as well, I’ll have a good amount of Bieber today, meaning no Tigers for me. We also talked about the potential of Turnbull here, this will be a game I won’t have many hitters from. The one hitter I really like is Jose Ramirez, he has an ISO of 0.310 and a wOBA of 0.417 against right-handed pitching.
Cleveland 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
Cleveland 4-star plays: Jake Bauers, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: The bottom of this order is just a buzz saw to any momentum, I don’t feel the need to stack here.
Detroit 5-star plays: None
Detroit 4-star plays: Niko Goodrum
GPP Note: Shane Bieber will be one of my higher owned pitchers on this slate, nothing from the Tigers for me.
Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals
Seattle Implied Run Total – 5.3
Kansas City Implied Run Total – 4.8
This game features some high run totals and should be a nice game for some offense. As I mentioned, keep an eye on the wind here, if it really is going to be blowing out at over 20 mph this is a game you’re going to want to get a piece of. This Mariners offense has been destroying the baseball and a stack is certainly viable here. As for the Royals, they’re a lot like the Indians, the bottom of the lineup is just ugly. With that said, this team is going to run early and often and Omar Narvaez is not a good defensive catcher. Look for Mondesi, Merrifield, and Hamilton to take advantage.
Seattle 5-star plays: Haniger, Santana, Encarnacion, Vogelbach
Seattle 4-star plays: Mallex Smith, Tim Beckham, Ryon Healy
GPP Note: I love a Mariners stack here.
Kansas City 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi
Kansas City 4-star plays: Alex Gordon, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Mike Leake ranks well in the Carnage Report, so I don’t want to go crazy here. There is a lot of stolen base upside, however.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Dodgers Implied Run Total – 4.7
Cardinals Implied Run Total – 3.9
The Dodgers are one of my favorite offenses on the slate, right up there with the Mariners and A’s. The wind is something to keep an eye on here as well, early models have it blowing out to left field at over 20 mph, keep an eye on the Weather Station. The Cardinals get a tough draw with Walker Beuhler on the mound, I’ll likely avoid a stack, but there are some one-off’s I don’t mind, such as Matt Carpenter who has an ISO of 0.271 and a wOBA of 0.393 against right-handed pitching.
Dodgers 5-star plays: Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson
Dodgers 4-star plays: Justin Turner, AJ Pollock, Corey Seager
GPP Note: My third-ranked stack behind the A’s and Mariners.
Cardinals 5-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Not a great stacking option, but if the wind is correct, makes sense for GPPs.
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Main Slate:
- Jon Gray – This is a great spot for Gray. We will be targeting the Giants a lot this season with pitchers, given their weak lineup. He has a strikeout percentage of 24.6% and is second on the slate in KSCORE (I’ll leave the top-ranked for VIP members). I suspect I’ll have a good amount of Gray tonight.
- Aaron Sanchez – I gotta say… I’m really not on the Aaron Sanchez train here against the Red Sox. He’s pitched well in his first two starts, but that was against two weak offenses in the Tigers and Indians. The Red Sox have an implied total of 5.6 runs, which is the highest of the day. I’ll be going elsewhere at pitcher tonight.
- Steven Matz – Matz is another guy I’m not completely sold on. The Braves only strikeout 20.1% of the time against left-handed pitching. The Braves also have a hard contact percentage of 37.3% against lefties this season. He’s coming off a really nice start against a right-handed heavy lineup in the Nationals, so the potential is there, he’s just going to have to prove it to me first.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Toronto Implied Run Total – 4
Boston Implied Run Total – 5.6
As I mentioned, the Red Sox have the highest implied run total of the day, making them one of the better stacks on the slate. Aaron Sanchez has actually been able to limit hard contact this season, but I would expect that to chance here. Nathan Eovaldi ranks dead last on the Carnage Report, so maybe this Toronto lineup has something working for it?
Toronto 5-star plays: None
Toronto 4-star plays: Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: The Jays lineup is honestly pretty ugly, but I trust the Carnage Report and if we want to attack low ranking pitchers, Eovaldi is dead last.
Boston 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogearts
Boston 4-star plays: Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Top stack on the main slate.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Mets Implied Run Total – 4.1
Braves Implied Run Total – 4.5
Both of these pitchers have pitched well this year, especially Kevin Gausman. I’m interested to see how Matz does here, he ranks nicely on the Carnage Report and his numbers seem to be there, but the Braves have done well against lefties this season. Peter Alonso is absolutely destroying the ball to start the season, he has an ISO of .448 and a wOBA of .473 against righties this season.
New York 5-star plays: Peter Alonso, Michael Conforto
New York 4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos
GPP Note: Gausman has pitched well this season, but the Mets are playing good baseball right now, I like them for large field GPPs.
Atlanta 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna Jr.
Atlanta 4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: The Braves have crushed lefties this season, but Matz is interesting here. Large field stack only for me.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Implied Run Total –
Chicago Implied Run Total –
We normally don’t get run totals on Wrigley games this early because the wind can always change direction, but this game looks like it will be a little wet, nonetheless. The Brewers pounded Quintana in his last start and I honestly don’t think he’s that great of a pitcher, but he’s been able to limit hard contact to only 33.5%. I’m not a huge fan of either of these offenses and actually have a good amount of interest in Joe Musgrove.
Pittsburgh 5-star plays: None
Pittsburgh 4-star plays: Starlin Marte, Josh Bell
GPP Note: Not a ton of interest in a Pirates stack tonight.
Chicago 5-star plays: None
Chicago 4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez
GPP Note: I like Joe Musgrove more than I like a Cubs stack here.
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Padres Implied Run Total –
Diamondbacks Implied Run Total –
Zack Godley pitched well in his last start and this Padres offense doesn’t scare me quite yet, I don’t hate using Godley here. Pedro Avila will make his major-league debut here. The D-Backs offense isn’t something to be afraid of, but I’ll take a wait and see approach on Avila.
Padres 5-star plays: Manny Machado
Padres 4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Not all that interested in a Dad’s stack.
Diamondbacks 5-star plays: David Peralta
Diamondbacks 4-star plays: Adam Jones
GPP Note: Not much to like here from the D-Backs either.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Rockies Implied Run Total – 3.7
Giants Implied Run Total – 3.4
These are two of the lowest implied totals on the day, and I love Jon Gray here. Gray will likely be one of my higher owned pitchers on the slate, so no thank you to the Giants offense. The Rockies offense has been surprisingly bad and the lineup is actually quite ugly outside of Blackmon, Arenado, and Story. Due to the ballpark, I won’t have much here.
Rockies 5-star plays: None
Rockies 4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Deep GPP stack only.
Giants 5-star plays: None
Giants 4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No thank you.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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