Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process
A consistent process that works will help you complete your research in a timely fashion. Consistent processes also give you confidence to ride through the rough times a volatile sport like MLB will throw your direction. I have a simple process where I start with good pitchers, bad pitchers, and stackable offenses using the strong bats within. I explain in three quick steps…
Identifying Quality MLB Pitching
I will use a combination of Vegas odds, KScore (definition inside DFS Army), and DFSA Grade (also inside DFS Army) to find the best combination of all three at the cheapest price. I will find a great pitcher showing strength in all areas, and I will try to find a cheaper pitcher that doesn’t sacrifice too much in any of these categories. Some days I can find cheaper pitching. Other days, I’m paying all the way up. Every slate is a fingerprint, and we live with what the slate offers rather than force plays in just because we like them.
APR 2 Report – Pay up day again. Scherzer and Sale had issues out of the gate. I don’t know that I can get all the way up to a Verlander without significant value bats at the tops of orders around the league, but we have a big enough slate at 10 games to do it most times. I’d almost rather focus on Blake Snell carrying solid Vegas odds, a decent KScore, and for a little extra money if I need it. If I wind up not needing it, I’ll upgrade to Verlander or Scherzer for sure. But, early in the year, I’m also stacking against these guys in a couple spots being they are prone to needing a start or two to fully get in the groove. Ryu is also on the table for even less, but Freeland is just a long shot SP2 choice on DK for me. I’d rather run a Snell/Ryu combo than reach for Freeland right now.
Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses
When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators. Look at all that green circled! These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble). To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.
APR 2 Report – The targets are easy to spot…our top 4 when sorted by lowest DFSA Grade overall. HOU, TOR, ARI, BOS should be key focal points in your stacks tonight outside of some sneakier, gpp type plays to differentiate your lineups a little.
How To Find MLB Hitters – Trending wOBA
Here is a page in DFS Army’s Research Station from which you can build entire lineups. Trending wOBA…specifically the L7 column. I’m a huge believer in MLB hot streaks. And, I will ride them off and on all year. People will shout that a guy is heating up or cooling off, but I prefer to watch this column over listening to the voices. I won’t miss a guy by more than about 3 days. If he gets hot, I’ll see it soon enough, and jump on board then. And, I’ll get off a formerly hot player faster than most now, too. Remember, pricing trails production in DFS, and it goes up much faster than it comes down. When a guy is running hot, he’s usually underpriced. And, when he cools off, he stays overpriced for a long time. Use this tab to help you figure that out………..and ask me inside our coaching channels as a VIP. This is my foundational building block for the next 6 months…..and it only takes a week to populate.
Filtered today to show your Drafktings guys <3500 in salary with at least 10 plate appearances on the year. We are going to need value today, and our Research Station allows you to find it in mere seconds once you have access to the tool and know how to manipulate it a little.
PHI Phillies @ WAS Nationals
Odds: WAS -200, 7 o/u
Game total of 7 has me looking for greener pastures, but there are some plays here. I’m not all that interested in stacking against Scherzer, but he isn’t superhuman, as we saw on opening day.
PHI 5 Star Plays – Franco, Hoskins, Harper
4 Star Plays – McCutcheon, Realmuto
Cash viable – none
GPP note – Stacking vs Scherzer always GPP
WAS 5 Star Plays – Robles
4 Star Plays – Turner, Rendon
Cash viable – Turner and Rendon are viable, but I like cheaper plays for “cash only.” Most MLB plays are “all format” or “gpp only.”
GPP note – none
BAL Orioles @ TOR Blue Jays
Odds: TOR -210, 8.5 o/u
Baltimore is surprising some people. I don’t expect it to continue, but I also thought Toronto would be more offensive to start the year in these seemingly cherry matchups. Grichuk BvP is pretty strong and he’s coming off a good night.
BAL 5 Star Plays – Mancini
4 Star Plays – Smith jr
Cash viable – none
GPP note – none
TOR 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Urena, Tellez, Galvis, Grichuk has sick BvP
Cash viable – none
GPP note – another good spot to erupt
COL Rockies @ TB Rays
Odds: TBR -170, 7 o/u
I’m not attacking Snell, and a lot of the Rays don’t matchup well against Freeland. If on Draftkings, I might just ping-pong these pitchers for a solid shot at the win and what should be a lower scoring game on both sides.
COL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Wolters, Dahl, Iannetta, McMahon
Cash viable – none
GPP note – Rox on road targeting Snell seems a little ambitious
TBR 5 Star Plays – Diaz
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP note – none
NY Mets @ MIA Marlins
Odds: NYM -135, 8 o/u
The Mets have value in their lineup. So do the Marlins. I’ll be looking for a couple of one-offs here if running big ace pitching arms. However, I’m not going to get too exposed to the MIA offense. I might take a couple bats from the Mets.
NYM 5 Star Plays – Alonso, McNeil
4 Star Plays – Ramos
Cash viable – Alonso
GPP note – won’t be highly owned even against MIA
MIA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Granderson, Walker, Rojas
Cash viable – Rojas still cheap
GPP note – none
Here at DFS Army, we win……and we win a lot. From smaller budgets and cash games to bigger whales swinging for the 6-figure fences, we’ve guided every type and every experience level for going on 4 seasons now. Our members rave about the responsiveness and interaction between coaches and players, and we actually form friendships that span sports. There is no community more invested in your success, nor a community that takes greater pride in your wins and sweats as we watch and root for you into the wee hours of mornings. Don’t believe me? See our Wall of Wins and just scroll through page after page and sport after sport…
HOU Astros @ TEX Rangers
Odds: HOU -225, 9 o/u
Houston needs to heat up in order to justify these prices. However, at the bottom of the order, Marisnick has been a favorite of mine for cheap for years. He has pop and speed. I really love him when he gets spot starts at leadoff. The Rangers are running well for sure, but I don’t know how much I’d be attacking Verlander without significant BvP on my side…….which they don’t really have.
HOU 5 Star Plays – Marisnick
4 Star Plays – Brantley
Cash viable – none
GPP note – pretty cold to start year
TEX 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Cabrera, Mazara, Andrus……..but temper expectations facing Verlander
Cash viable – none
GPP note – very contrarian stack
MIN Twins @ KC Royals
Odds: MIN -145, 7.5 o/u
I can’t get excited about this game, but it does have some bats in here doing early season damage. That said, I still don’t think I’m coming to this game for much. Neither will anyone else.
MIN 5 Star Plays – Cruz
4 Star Plays – Buxton
Cash viable – none
GPP note – none
KCR 5 Star Plays – Soler
4 Star Plays – Mondesi
Cash viable – Mondesi
GPP note – none
BOS Red Sox @ OAK Athletics
Odds: BOS -170, 7.5 o/u
Ok, I’ll share JD’s history with you vs Fiers. 7/14 with 2 doubles, 2 HRs, and a 1.605 OPS. That’s nasty! And, it’s not even the best on the slate. But, the rest of the BOS big bats need to come along soon at their prices. Oakland has some hot runners and the right-handers might have some potential if Sale isn’t sharp. Khris Davis is always a solid gpp play if not stacking the Athletics as a unit. Double homer pop in any matchup.
BOS 5 Star Plays – Martinez (BvP too)
4 Star Plays – Moreland, Devers
Cash viable – I really want to say Martinez, but he’s not running hot enough for the price yet.
GPP note – if they snap out of it, BOS stacks will win you a gpp as your anchor
OAK 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Cahna, Chapman, Davis, Semien….again temper expectations facing Sale
Cash viable – none
GPP note – another quite contrarian play
Starting Lineups for every game! And, complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades. You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up. Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today….
SF Giants @ LA Dodgers
Odds: LAD -185, 7 o/u
Giants……yuck. Dodgers……..yum. That’s about all you need to know other than maybe watch the lefty on lefty stuff with Pederson and Bellinger again. However, Pederson does have a homer off MadBum. Kike, though, has four…………..yes, I said FOUR.
SFG 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Longoria
Cash viable – none
GPP note – none
LAD 5 Star Plays – Barnes, Pollock, Kike (has monster BvP vs MadBum)
4 Star Plays – Pederson, Bellinger
Cash viable – Kike
GPP note – easy stack….just has to work.
LA Angels @ SEA Mariners
Odds: SEA -115, 8.5 o/u
Trout has good history vs “little Marco,” but I’d sure like to see some support from his friends. Calhoun is LvL here, so watch that a little. Other than those two, not much is going on with the Angels….and even Trout is cold. But, the Seattle side……as Janice in Friends says, “Oh……My……GAWD, Chandler.” Well, you get my point. They are still rolling. And, they catch a hittable pitcher again. I love the cheap plays in this lineup surrounded by some other current heavy producers. Any stack combo is viable again. The 8.5 game total should largely lie on the SEA side even though the nearly even odds will technically split it up.
LAA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Calhoun, Trout (BvP)
Cash viable – Trout
GPP note – none
SEA 5 Star Plays – Narvaez, Santana
4 Star Plays – Healy, Bruce, Beckham, Encarnacion
Cash viable – Narvaez, Santana
GPP note – another easy stack while running hot
ARI Diamondbacks @ SD Padres
Odds: SDP -115, 7.5 o/u
Arizona bats can be played here, especially if Christian Walker starts. Adam Jones is another off to a solid start. The Padres really only have Wil Myers right now. Everyone else should be used with caution.
ARI 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Walker, Avila, Dyson, Jones, Peralta
Cash viable – none
GPP note – low owned stack with some potential
SDP 5 Star Plays – Myers
4 Star Plays – Garcia, Hedges, Kinsler
Cash viable – Garcia if at top of order
GPP note – risky, but Greinke is very hittable
Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…
Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs. However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you. Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition. There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!
GPP Sleeper stack = SEA combinations – not sneaky, but not super chalky either. They are just going too well right not to not anchor nearly everything I do.
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our MLB coaching rooms all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process a few times a week, and with a little more time, VIP strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed and profitable day.
