Hello again everyone! nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me here on Twitter or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Had to throw this one out there again. Congrats, Semper!
As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
There are too many pitchers today (and too many juicy GPP options), so I’m keeping it a little short this time. VIP members, the full report with all 30 pitchers can be found here.
It’s no surprise to see Snell there at the top, and even though his last matchup with my Royals didn’t go as planned for him, I have no doubt that he’ll have the upper hand this time around. He’s sure to be a popular choice in cash games and tournaments alike.
Pomeranz and Cole both look pretty good on here, but due to their matchups, I’ll be leaning GPP with them. Going with Snell or Bauer will be the safer bets for your cash games.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
Alright, since I left you guys hanging a little with the first one, I’ll put some extra ones in here. There’s a whole bunch of red in here, so look to those offenses to start your builds. The classic batter sheet, coaches notes, or starting lineups page are all great places to look to find those individual targets.
St Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals
We’ll kick this one off with the Cards and Nats, and as you can see just above, the Cards are in a terrific spot here to do some damage. If the good Waino shows up, the Nats may stay pretty quiet, but if he’s off, this one could turn into a shootout.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt, Carpenter
Cardinals 4 star plays – DeJong, Ozuna
GPP note – Bombs away!!
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto, Kendrick, Eaton
GPP note – Hit or miss matchup, just depends on which version of Wainwright we see. I would either fade or do full stacks
Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies
It wasn’t on the chart above, but Tyson sports a 6.10 carnage rating against the Phillies, so they’re in a pretty good spot to cause some fireworks as wel. Velasquez has pretty good stuff, so the Tigers may be tamed in this one.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Goodrum
GPP note – Kind of a meh matchup for them going up against Velasquez
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper, Hoskins
Phillies 4 star plays – McCutchen, Realmuto
GPP note – Full stacks are very much in play here, as are some of these high-powered one-offs
Cinncinati Reds at New York Mets
Hey look, more carnage! Vargas has the worst rating on the board today, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the Reds go a little crazy here. The Mets will have to deal with Castillo, who has done a pretty good job so far this season.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Suarez, Puig
GPP note – Best carnage rating on the slate. Can they take advantage of it?
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – McNeil, Conforto, Alonso
GPP note – A bit of a difficult matchup here. One-offs or mini-stacks may be best
Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox
Like we saw last night, these teams like to score some runs on each other, and I don’t think tonight will be much different. Both pitchers are prone in imploding, so don’t be surprised to see this one exceed 10 runs. I would definitely want a little exposure to both sides of this one, and some lineups with full game stacks aren’t out of the question.
Athletics 5 star plays – Davis
Athletics 4 star plays – Semien, Chapman
GPP note – Full stacks are in play here
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Benintendi, Bogaerts, Chavis
GPP note – Full stacks are in play here, too
Cleveland Indians at Miami Marlins
We see our first ace of the night here in Trevor Bauer. He’ll get a nice matchup against the Marlins, so expect to see him be a bit chalky tonight. As for the Indians, they get a pretty average matchup with Alcantara, but his 5.08 SIERA may be trying to tell us to attack him.
Cleveland 5 star plays – Lindor
Cleveland 4 star plays – Ramirez, Santana
GPP note – Some Cleveland stacks aren’t a bad idea tonight
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Very difficult matchup with a sub-3 implied run total. Pass
Some more of our NASCAR winners from this weekend. Congrats, everyone!
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves
Teheran gets the nod here, and I expect him to continue what Soroka did last night. Speaking of which, did you know that he was the mystery man from yesterday’s article? Our members sure did, and those 28.5 / 49 fantasy points were sure nice.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Hosmer, Machado
GPP note – Like yesterday, I would stick to one-offs
Braves 5 star plays – Freeman, Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Donaldson, Swanson
GPP note – These guys are always in play for one-offs or full stacks, or anything between
Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
Our second ace of the night will take the hill here, but as of right now the weather looks pretty alarming. VIP members, be sure to keep a close eye on #dfs-weather in our coaching channels, as we’ll keep you steered in the right direction. As for the offenses, it looks to be similar to last night, except that the Astros have an easier target this time around. Look for them to cause some mayhem after being shut out last night.
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve, Springer
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Brantley
GPP note – Major dud last night, but don’t let that keep you from having exposure to this high-powered offense in a good matchup today
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Rosario
GPP note – If Cole is on his game, this offense will be severely limited. Stack with caution
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
Colorado’s ace will take charge here, and try to quiet the Brewers at home. That’s a difficult task to accomplish, especially if Yelich starts, but he’s one of the few that may be up for it. As we saw above, the Rockies have a nice 6.60 carnage rating against Chacin, so they could be in for another big game after they laid the big goose egg last night. Like the Astros, if you stacked them last night, don’t be afraid to go right back to them today. They could very well put up 10+ runs tonight. Baseball is funny like that.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Murphy, Story
GPP note – Great matchup and they probably won’t have much ownership
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Grandal
GPP note – Tough matchup but they seem to always find a way
Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers
This game opened at 10.5 runs, and seeing how much damage the Rangers have done recently, it’s not too hard to see why. Don’t forget the Pirates though, they get a pretty good matchup here against Sampson.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Moran, Frazier,
GPP note – May go overlooked, but they’re in a good spot to go off
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Odor, Andrus, Gallo
GPP note – Capable of putting up some big scores, so if you stack them, make it a full one
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
Another game with some possible weather concerns, the White Sox get Cashner, who has been anything but dominant. He’d better hope this one gets rained out! As for the O’s, they’re not in a bad spot by any means, but you may want to stick to the lefties here.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mancini, Smith Jr, Villar
GPP note – Lefties are usually the way to go against Nova
White Sox 5 star plays – Anderson
White Sox 4 star plays – Moncada, Alonso, Abreu
GPP note – Great matchup against Cashner, but watch out for the weather
Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals
Our last game with weather concerns, my Royals get a terrible matchup against Snell, who will look to make things right with how the last meeting between these two went. Don’t forget about Junis though, as he’s shown signs of life. This one could certainly turn into a pitcher’s duel, so hopefully mother nature cooperates.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, B Lowe, Choi
GPP note – Their ceiling depends on which version of Junis shows up
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – none…….Mondesi?
GPP note – Likely to get eaten alive by Snell for at least 6 innings, or maybe 7 to 8
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks
Greinke gets a home start against a Yankees team that is down a few big guns. We know how well he performs at Chase Field, so don’t be surprised to see the Yankees struggle here. CC has looked decent this year, and he always has some upside in him somewhere, so there’s a chance this one turns into a snoozer for the offenses.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Sanchez, Voit
GPP note – Greinke is tough, especially at home. Stack with caution
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Jones, Walker, Peralta
GPP note – Better matchup for the Diamondbacks, but CC has some good stuff left in him, so be a little cautious here
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Fransisco Giants
We get a couple of decent pitchers in this one, though Walker has struggled to find some consistency this year. I don’t expect this one to get too wild, and seeing that it opened at 7 runs, Vegas doesn’t seem to think so either. As such, full stacks may not be the way to go here, but some one-offs or mini-stacks could work.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner, Bellinger, Taylor (BvP)
GPP note – Taylor has some nice BvP, but the rest may be a bit limited here
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Panik
GPP note – Not a ton to love here either, so full stacks are probably out
Another NBA playoff game, another VIP winner. Congrats, JayMan8955!
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels
We get to see another MLB debut in this one, with Griffin Canning taking the mound for the Angels. We never know how these things will go, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to grab a few Blue Jays stacks in case his debut doesn’t go very well. The Angels get Buchholz, a pitcher they haven’t really done much against in the past. Needless to say, this one has a lot of question marks in it, so we’ll want to dig in a bit deeper to figure out where we want to go.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Sogard, Tellez
GPP note – They get a pitcher in their MLB debut, so grabbing a few stacks isn’t a bad idea
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Calhoun, La Stella
GPP note – Not much success against Buchholz in the past, but this team can put together some good scores, so full stacks are still in play
Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners
And finally, our last game of the night features two teams that are capable of putting up 10+ runs….each. Hamels has looked really good this year, but if anybody is up for ruining his start, it’s the Mariners. Felix has had a bit of an up and down season, and the Cubs would be glad to make this one another down.
Cubs 5 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant
Cubs 4 star plays – Baez, Heyward, Schwarber
GPP note – I would prefer full stacks here, but any exposure to this offense would be a good idea
Mariners 5 star plays – Haniger
Mariners 4 star plays – Encarnacion, Santana
GPP note – Hamels has looked good, but this offense can blow him up if he makes any mistakes. Full stacks are in play
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 1:
As we already discussed, Anderson is in a great spot, so I’d probably default to him for cash games. Hoskins isn’t too far behind, so you could use him instead if you’d really like. Story makes a solid GPP pivot, and then there’s Gallo. He strikes out a ton, so I wouldn’t go there in cash games, but he always has GPP-winning upside.
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
If you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. As you saw, we cover (and win!) all sports, not just the common ones. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all have a great week!
