Hello again everyone! nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me here on Twitter or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Before we get into today’s games, I’d like to first congratulate one of our VIPs for this sweet $15,000 NASCAR win yesterday:
Congrats again, Semper! There are some more I’ll show off later, but for now, let’s get back to baseball. If you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
This looks to be another tough slate to figure out our cash game options, as most of the top-end pitchers have difficult matchups. Wheeler looks to be a decent option, as he’s shown pretty good stuff and gets one of the easier matchups today. Maeda hasn’t been very consistent, so even though he’s going up against the Giants, his carnage rating is pretty average at 5.29 and didn’t make the top of the list.
Verlander has looked terrific, but he has to face a dangerous offense on the road. Granted, he faced them last week and held them to one run, but I’m a little worried about them getting another crack at him so quickly. The rest of these guys are all GPP options in my eyes, and I especially like the one at the very top, but he’ll have to remain a DFS Army VIP special. Sorry!
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
Colorado stands out a bit over the other options, so we may want to prioritize a batter or two from there for our cash games, and consider full stacks for GPP. The rest look decent too, so we could dig more into those lineups and see who stands out. The classic batter sheet, coaches notes, or starting lineups page are all great places to look to find those individual targets.
St Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals
We’ll kick things off with a game that has the potential to be a pitcher’s duel, which features Wacha and Corbin. Both have looked pretty good, and while Wacha’s carnage rating slightly favors the Nationals, it’s still not terrible, and his KSCORE says he has some upside in this matchup. I’m leaning more towards the pitchers in this one.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt, Carpenter, DeJong
GPP note – Likely to have a limited ceiling facing Corbin
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Soto
GPP note – May be limited by Wacha if he’s on
Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
Next up we have Roark taking on Wheeler, who is one of the pitchers I would consider for cash games today. The Reds offense isn’t very scary, and Wheeler has shown both a nice floor and ceiling in more difficult matchups, so it’s easier to trust him here. While the Mets aren’t exactly an A-tier offense, Roark will still have his work cut out for him here. I’d only consider him for GPP purposes.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto
GPP note – Likely to have a limited floor and ceiling facing Wheeler
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto, Nimmo
GPP note – Decent matchup, but Roark isn’t a pushover. One-offs or mini-stacks might be best without Cano in the lineup
Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox
Here we get two solid pitchers who can hold their opponents down for 5-6 innings and two teams that tend to be either explosive or caught sleeping. As such, all sides of this one are in play in GPP, and we could probably sneak in a batter or two into our cash games if we wanted.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Davis, Chapman, Semien
GPP note – I think I would take full stacks here and hope that Rodriguez has one of his bad games
Red Sox 5 star plays – Martinez, Betts
Red Sox 4 star plays – Benintendi, Bogaerts
GPP note – Red Sox stacks are always in play, but Montas has held his own pretty well
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves
The Braves are pretty fun to watch, and they’ll get a lefty here who isn’t a stranger of allowing some hits. Taking a righty or two in cash wouldn’t be a bad idea, and you could consider some stacks in GPP, too. As for the Padres, I’m not really in love with them, but a lefty like Hosmer could be a good place to grab some exposure if you really want it.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Hosmer, Tatis, Machado
GPP note – Not much that I love here. Maybe grab a lefty or two and move on
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Donaldson, Albies, Swanson
GPP note – The Braves are almost always in play, and today is no exception
Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
This is the interesting game of the day, as we have two very capable pitchers going up against two dangerous offenses. I wouldn’t be any more surprised to see this game end in a 0-1 score as I would 13-10. We’ll have to discuss this one in our coaching channels!
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve, Springer
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Brantley
GPP note – Very boom or bust matchup
Twins 5 star plays – Kepler, Cruz
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco, Rosario, Cron
GPP note – Very boom or bust matchup
Some more VIP winners from this weekend. Congrats guys!
Colorado Rockies at Chicago Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are back at home, so you know what that means. Well, you should at least! Don’t forget about the Rockies though, they have a pretty good matchup here, too. I could see this game getting out of hand pretty quickly, so be sure to grab some pieces of this one.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Murphy, Story
GPP note – Pretty good matchup here, so any kinds of stacks are in play
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Cain, Braun, Grandal, Aguilar
GPP note – These guys are always in play, especially at home
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
We have two lower-end pitchers facing off here, but as we saw on the carnage report earlier, Banuelos didn’t look too shabby, so we may lean more towards the White Sox batters in this one. I’m not really in love with either pitcher here, but if I had to make a choice, I’d go with Banuelos.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mancini
GPP note – Kind of meh, but maybe a one-off?
White Sox 5 star plays – Anderson
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Moncada
GPP note – Capable of putting up 10+ runs against weak/mediocre pitchers, so don’t sleep on them
Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals
I really don’t like these bullpen games, but here we are again. Keller has pretty decent stuff, but he’s not exactly consistent, so he makes a decent target to stack against in hopes that he implodes. I’m not too big on my Royals here, since the Rays do a pretty decent job of limiting the opposing offense in these bullpen games. I might be interested in a one-off or a mini-stack, but I’m not feeling full stacks today.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, Lowe
GPP note – Keller is hit or miss, so I would either fade or full stack
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Mondesi, Dozier, Gordon
GPP note – May have a limited ceiling due to the Rays picking matchups
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
And finally, our final game of the night features the Dodgers and the Giants, two teams that know each other fairly well. On one hand, we know the Dodgers can explode against anybody, so they’re always in play. On the other hand, the Giants are really good at having a huge game at random when nobody is on them. Seeing that they have seen Maeda plenty, this could be one of those nights, so taking a few stacks here isn’t the worst thing you could do.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Seager
GPP note – Always in play from one-offs to full stacks
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Panik (BvP)
GPP note – Contrarian stack that will probably see very little ownership, but there’s always a small chance they could erupt
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 5:
Quite a few choices here, but Conforto looks to be the best cash game option. There are some interesting GPP choices as well, and I think a case could be made for most of them.
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
If you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. As you saw, we cover (and win!) all sports, not just the common ones. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all have a great week!
