Gooood morning everyone! nillyJay here again – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me here on Twitter or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
We have another big Sunday ahead of us, and I’ll be covering not only that with you guys but also some NASCAR action with my fellow DFS Army members. How’s that going? Well, take a look for yourself!
Yesterday’s Xfinity race produced some great results for our members, and here you can see a few of them that tied for first place for $4,500 each. Awesome job!
Anyway, back to baseball! If you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
Even though we have a lot of options today, a lot of them are a little iffy, so there aren’t a whole lot of overly safe cash options. Fortunately, we do have a couple here, which would be German and Flaherty. Both have looked pretty good and offer some safety and upside at reasonable prices. Low carnage ratings, solid KSCORES, and mostly good wOBA/SIERA numbers are good indicators that they are worth a look for all formats.
Of course, there’s always Chris Sale too, but his rocky start has his carnage rating a little higher than it would be otherwise. I’m sure it won’t be long before he makes regular appearances in the top of the ratings.
As for the rest of these guys, they all have upside in their matchups but also inherit a little more risk than the other two, so I would lean towards using them in GPPs instead of cash games. That one at the top is really intriguing, but he’ll have to remain a DFS Army VIP special. Sorry!
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
On the other end of the carnage spectrum, we have these guys that, well…haven’t looked very good! All four of them are giving up plenty to their opponents and make solid candidates to target. For cash games, we could consider taking one or two of the hottest bats going up against them, or for tournaments, we could consider full stacks. The classic batter sheet, coaches notes, or starting lineups page are all great places to look to find those individual targets.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll start things off in Philadelphia, where we have Lopez and Eflin facing off. Both pitchers have looked decent this year, so this game could be a little underwhelming for the offenses, but there are still some targets we can look at.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Granderson (BvP), Rojas (BvP), Anderson
GPP note – Not sure I would like a full stack here, but a mini-stack could certainly work
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper, Hoskins
Phillies 4 star plays – Realmuto, McCutchen, Knapp
GPP note – Not sure I’m in love with big stacks here either. I think one-offs or mini-stacks would be best
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Ah, Chris Sale. You know, I’m not a Red Sox fan, but I can’t help but love watching this guy pitch. Anyway, he finally looked good earlier this week, and he’ll look to keep that going against the Rays. Regardless of whether or not you play him in cash, I would definitely get some exposure to him in GPP today, because he’ll be itching to make it two in a row. Don’t forget about Glasnow, either. He’s held his own just fine this season, and if he’s on too, this could be a fun pitcher’s duel to watch.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Kiermaier
GPP note – Will have a severely limited ceiling if Sale is on. Contrarian stacks only
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Benintendi, Bogaerts
GPP note – May also have a limited ceiling if Glasnow is on.
Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
This game started with a 9 over/under, but something tells me we’ll see the over. We know both teams are capable of going off, and neither faces an overly dominant pitcher. If I had to choose only one side, I’d go with the Athletics, especially any lefties they start (Thornton is allowing .416 xwOBA / .405 wOBA / .358 ISO to them). We haven’t seen enough of Bassitt to know where he’s at, so I would keep the Blue Jays to GPP stacks instead of cash games.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Chapman, Morales, Davis
GPP note – Full stacks are viable. Favor the lefties
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Sogard, Smoak, Drury
GPP note – A bit of an unknown for the matchup here, but a few stacks couldn’t hurt
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
Gonzalez makes his 2019 debut here, which should be fun to watch, and he’ll face off against Matz in his opener. We saw last night that this team can be dangerous against anybody (for the life of me I can’t figure out why Syndergaard was 48% owned in my cash games last night when Kershaw was the much safer option, but I digress…), so be sure to avoid Matz for your cash games today. I shouldn’t need to say it, but steer clear of Gonzalez in them, too. They’re both in play for GPP, as are quite a few of the batters here.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Braun, Cain, Grandal, Aguilar
GPP note – Stack away!
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Rosario
GPP note – Stack here and hope that Gonzalez has “first start jitters”
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
After losing two straight, the Braves find themselves in a great spot to grab a win in this series. They’ll face Anderson who has been allowing all sorts of everything to opposing offenses (he’s really earned that 7.55 carnage rating). He’s been soft against both sides of the plate, so just about everybody is in play here. As for the Rockies, Gausman hasn’t looked too bad this season, so they may be better used as a source for a one-off or a mini-stack.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Murphy
GPP note – Might have a limited ceiling if Gausman continues to impress
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna, Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Swanson, Donaldson…everybody?
GPP note – Bombs away!!
Love seeing these single entry wins. Congrats, KaboomBIGBen!
San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals
Two decent/good pitchers square off here, but the 8.5 over/under tells me that there may be some decent offensive production here. The softest target in this game would be lefties against Hellickson, as everything else has been fairly tight. Washington is certainly capable, but I’m not sure they’ll get to Lucchesi enough for full stacks to really pay off.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Hosmer, any other lefties that start
GPP note – Lefties have the best matchup here, but the Padres aren’t loaded with them
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon
GPP note – Not really feeling full stacks here, but a one-off or mini-stack might work
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
As we saw a couple of nights ago, these two teams can go absolutely bonkers against one another, so stacking either side of this one is certainly in play. However, both of these pitchers have held their own pretty well, so they’re definitely in play for GPP as well.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Goodrum, any lefties that start
GPP note – Favor the lefties
White Sox 5 star plays – Anderson
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Moncada
GPP note – Not as good of a target, but still plenty capable and are worth considering for full stacks
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins
The Twins continue to impress and get a great matchup against Bundy, who is capable of imploding on any given start. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them put up another 10+ runs, so be sure to grab some pieces of this offense, especially in cash games. The Orioles aren’t in a super great spot or anything, as Gibson has looked pretty decent, but they might still be worth a stack or two just in case. The focus of this game will be on the Twins, and for good reason.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Smith Jr
GPP note – A bit of a contrarian stack, but Gibson has looked pretty sharp, so don’t get too excited
Twins 5 star plays – Kepler, Cruz
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco, Rosario, Cron…everybody!
GPP note – Bombs away!!
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals
We have another interesting one here. On one hand, both of these pitchers have been great targets to pick on for DFS purposes. On the other, they’ve both shown they’re capable of trolling the crap out of us and putting up a string of good games. Personally, I don’t think either one of them will be up for having a great game, so I’ll be more interested in the offenses here. I would only touch these pitchers in large field tournaments. Oh, did I mention that Trout hasn’t homered in 10 days now? Just something to think about…
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Calhoun, Pujols
GPP note – One-offs, mini-stacks, and full stacking are all options here
Royals 5 star plays – Merrifield, Mondesi
Royals 4 star plays – Dozier, Gordon
GPP note – One-offs, mini-stacks, and full stacking are all options here
Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
I already touched on Flaherty earlier, so I won’t talk much about him or the Reds. The focus will be Gray and the Cardinals, or more specifically, which Sonny Gray will show up. When he’s on, he’s pretty solid and can limit the opposing offense really well. When he’s off…oh boy, do the fireworks come out. This is one of those times where I think it would be good to have some shares of both sides of this matchup, as it really could go either way, and there will probably be some high scoring on the side that comes out on top.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto
GPP note – One word….meh
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt, Carpenter
Cardinals 4 star plays – DeJong, Ozuna, Martinez
GPP note – Their ceiling will depend on which Gray shows up. I would go full stacks here and hope the self-imploding Gray is the one we see
We’re already hammering the new AFL slates, too. Congrats, scrosby0227!
New York Yankees at San Fransico Giants
German, one of my favorite pitchers on the slate, draws a nice matchup against the Giants at the best pitcher’s park in the league. As a bonus, none of the Giants have ever faced him, so things are looking really good for him. As such, I’m not a big fan of the Giants today, but I’m not all that excited about the Yankees, either. Rodriguez has looked pretty decent and gets the same great ballpark that German does, so this game could certainly play to the under. And no, Rodriguez is not the mystery man in the carnage report. Keep guessing!
Yankees 5 star plays – Sanchez
Yankees 4 star plays – Voit
GPP note – May have a limited ceiling in this matchup
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt?
GPP note – Meh!
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers
Another 2019 debut, we’ll finally see Rich Hill take the mound today against the Pirates, a team that has been a pretty decent target this year. However, I have no idea how long they’ll let Hill throw, so I can’t recommend him in any formats today. If you want to use him, do your homework and decide if you think they’ll let him throw for 6+ innings or not. As for Williams, he’s held his own this year just fine, but it’s risky to pick on the Dodgers, so only do it in tournaments.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Frazier?
GPP note – not a very exciting stack, especially if Hill is on his game
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Taylor (BvP), Seager, Pederson
GPP note – Almost always in play for one-offs, mini-stacks, or full stacking…today is no exception
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
I’m starting to think these teams hate each other (the ridiculous scores they put up against one another might have something to do with it), and I’m not sure that either pitcher will have the stuff to really limit the other team. I would only touch said pitchers in large field GPP and would grab plenty of batters from this game in both GPP and cash games.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Andrus, Gallo, Santana
GPP note – Pretty good chance of going off…again
Mariners 5 star plays – Vogelbach
Mariners 4 star plays – Encarnacion, Santana, Beckham, Brce
GPP note – Pretty good chance of going off…again
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
And finally, the last of the daytime games. We’ll see two quality pitchers go at it here, in what could certainly be a low-scoring affair. I think a one-off or mini-stack would be best for the Cubs, while full stacks would be best for the Diamondbacks. I say that because if Quintana is on, they will be hampered. If he’s off, he’s really good at imploding like crazy, and it’ll be a team effort to knock him out of the game
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Baez, Rizzo, Bryant
GPP note – One-offs or mini-stacks would probably be best
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Jones, Escobar
GPP note – I would either fade them or go full stack, hoping Quintana has a poor outing
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 1:
All things considered, Trout looks to be the cash game choice here, while a case could be made for the others in tournaments. For GPP, I like Bellinger best, especially after that sub-par performance of his last night.
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
If you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. As you saw, we cover (and win!) all sports, not just the common ones. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all have a great rest of your weekend!
