Good morning everyone, nillyJay here again! Some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me here on Twitter or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
I had so much fun doing yesterday’s article that I thought I would take this one too. There are only 9 games tonight, but there are still plenty of good points to cover. Anyway, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
I have to pimp MrBearHere’s win from this weekend one more time. Congrats again!!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
- Though he’s not favored by Vegas, it’s not too surprising to see Syndergaard up top today. Rhys knows how to hit him pretty well, but aside from that, this Phillies team hasn’t given him a ton of trouble in the past. So far this year he’s not walking people, he’s allowing less than one hit per 9 innings, and he’s striking out plenty of batters. If he continues that today, I could see another quality outing with a solid fantasy score on both sites.
- I was kind of shocked to see this guy pop up today, but I checked the numbers several times and sure enough, here we are. This one is a DFS Army GPP special, so I had to leave the name out, but I wanted to show how the carnage rating can be used to find pitchers that otherwise wouldn’t cross our minds.
- Lucchesi has been off to a good start this season (outside of that game at San Fransisco) and gets a Rockies team that hasn’t really been all that dangerous. They’ve seen him a little, but outside of Story and Dahl, they haven’t done much against him. Vegas is on his side (-159 moneyline at the time of typing this) as well, so we can be fairly confident in using him today.
- I was a little surprised to see Cahill pop up on here too, but given the options we have today, I guess I shouldn’t be too surprised that he’s in the top four. Regardless, this isn’t somewhere I’d go for cash games, but for GPP he could make an interesting target since he could very well spoil the fun at Globe Life Park today. Both teams have implied run totals of more than five, so we can be sure the pitchers won’t carry much ownership today.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
- Perez has allowed a fair amount of baserunners in his short outings but has also been striking out quite a few batters as well. That creates an interesting question; what do we do here? I think it would be worthwhile to have shares of both sides of this game; take Perez as a pitcher in a few GPP lineups, and stack against him with some Toronto bats in a few others. It’s pretty likely that one side of this game will score enough fantasy points to matter tonight, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to have exposure to both sides.
- And of course, the obvious call of the day, the Brewers are once again in a good spot, so this would be a good place to look for batters. Yelich, Shaw, and Moustakas have all hit one home run off of him in only a few at-bats, and there’s a very good chance that at least one of them does it again tonight. Just about anybody is in play here, but I would start with those three as a core.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Two quality pitchers face off in the first game of the evening with a 7.5 implied run total. This looks pretty good for those two, but remember that these two teams have seen each other’s pitchers plenty, so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see them hit the over instead of the under. I wouldn’t go too heavy with the batters here for cash games, but for GPP, they’re absolutely in play.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Nimmo, Cano, Conforto
GPP note – Nola likes to have the random terrible game, and I doubt many will be looking at the Mets today
Phillies 5 star plays – Hoskins
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Segura
GPP note – I would definitely have some exposure to Hoskins today, even if only as a one-off
Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins
As a big fan of his, I hope every game that Darvish starts is the one that he gets back to his old self, and today’s looks promising for that. The only Marlins that have seen him hit for a combined 4 for 18 (with no home runs). On the other side, only one Cub has ever seen Richards, who has looked pretty good so far this year. Though we know how dangerous that Cubs lineup can be, this game has the makings to turn into a pitcher’s duel, so I’ll be tuning in hoping to see that unfold.
Cubs 5 star plays – Rizzo, Heyward
Cubs 4 star plays – Baez, Bryant
GPP note – They’re always a threat to put up a random 10+ run game, but Richards has been anything but a pushover this season
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Anderson
GPP note – Which Darvish will we see today? Who knows, but I see things going heavily in one direction or the other, and not much in the middle
St Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
It’s the battle of the beer teams, and I think it’s a pretty safe bet to say that the Brew Crew will have the advantage here. Like I mentioned earlier, three of them have one home run against Hudson, and more are sure to come today. Pretty much any Brewer is in play today, but don’t forget about the red birds. There are a few there that could join the fun, too.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Wong, Carpenter
GPP note – All eyes will probably be on the Brewers, but don’t ignore these guys
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich, Moustakas, Shaw
Brewers 4 star plays – Almost everybody else (Braun has struggled)
GPP note – Incoming chalk dingers!
Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins
Unless Perez throws more than 3 or 4 innings, I tend to disagree with Vegas on the outcome of this game. Shoemaker has looked really good, and outside of Cruz, they haven’t done much against him in the past. Even though his carnage rating wasn’t as low as I had hoped (4.75), I think he makes a good GPP target again today. I would also consider taking some Twins stacks too though, as they are heating up and can be very dangerous when they are hot.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Hernandez, Grichuk, Smoak
GPP note – I like Shoemaker has a GPP pitcher, but I would definitely hedge against him too
Twins 5 star plays – Cruz
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario
GPP note – If you’re skipping Shoemaker, be sure to grab some of these bats
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
They say Trout will play again today, and if he does, you know what that means. Miller has looked terrible so far this year and this is a great spot for the Angels to go bananas. While both teams are slated to score at least 5 runs today, I think the Angels have a much better chance of doing it. Cahill has looked pretty solid, and the Rangers have been a bit up and down, so I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him keep them tamed today.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout (if he plays), Bour
Angels 4 star plays – Calhoun, Pujols
GPP note – Great GPP target, could go overlooked
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Andrus, Choo, Gallo (boom or bust)
GPP note – Be careful with team stacks, as Cahill has looked pretty good. Mini-stacks or one-offs may be the best approach here
Check out jefferypcoffman’s sweet $4,500 win from The Masters. Congrats, man!
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
My Royals head up to Chicago today after a wild one at The K yesterday. I don’t see either pitcher doing particularly well in this one, so don’t be afraid to grab some action from both sides.
Royals 5 star plays – Merrifield, Gordon, Mondesi
Royals 4 star plays – Soler, O’Hearn, Dozier
GPP note – The bats are hot and Santana is not
White Sox 5 star plays – Abreu, Anderson
White Sox 4 star plays – Alonso, Moncada
GPP note – Will probably get to see the bullpen early
Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners
The Indians head to Seattle today for what could be a decent pitcher’s duel. They’ll deploy Bauer (who has looked sharp for the most part this year) and try to grab another win for him. On the flip side, Kikuchi has looked pretty decent, and nobody on the Indians has ever faced him. I could definitely see this one being a low-scoring ballgame, so I might shy away from full stacks here. Bauer might be a popular cash pitcher since there aren’t many clear-cut options today.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Santana, Martin
GPP note – Have never faced Kikuchi. One-offs might be the best bet here
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Vogelbach, Santana
GPP note – They face a very good pitcher who could very well keep them down today
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
At long last, we finally get to see Kershaw take the mound again today. Love him or hate him (or the Dodgers, for that matter), it’s always good to see one of the best pitchers of this generation back in action, so be sure to tune in to this one. There’s no way of knowing how he’ll do, so I can’t recommend playing or fading the Reds. You’ll have to decide how you see that one unfolding. As for the Dodgers, I don’t have to tell you how dangerous they can be.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Suarez
GPP note – To stack or not to stack? Flip a coin, but be sure to watch Kershaw’s 2019 debut either way
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger,
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Seager, Muncy
GPP note – It’s always an option to stack them up
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
And finally, our last game of the night features the lowest total of the entire slate. Most of that is due to Lucchesi looking pretty good while the Rockies haven’t really hit their stride yet.
Rockies 5 star plays – Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon, Story, Dahl
GPP note – Haven’t looked very dangerous yet and Lucchesi has looked great at home
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Hosmer, Myers
GPP note – Potential blowup spot for the Padres
Another NBA playoff win from this weekend. Congrats, arky798er!
Tiers are fun!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 3:
Sorry for the zeroes in there, my initial run happened before Vegas had everything up and running. Anyway, we have several good options here, most of which I already touched on today. For cash games, my man 2hit Whit looks pretty good, while we have a handful of good GPP alternatives. If the bad Nola shows up, I could see Conforto winning this tier.
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for all of the games today. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
As always, if you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all enjoy your Tax Day Monday. Good luck!
