Good morning everyone, nillyJay here! Some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me here on Twitter or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
There’s no NASCAR race today and I didn’t know what to do with myself! So here I am, about to break down this massive 14-game Sunday with you guys. If you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
My man MrBearHere with this sweet $7,000+ NBA win last night. Congrats dude!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that!
Most of these are pretty obvious, but let’s go over them anyway:
- Max Scherzer – Mad Max has been his usual self so far this season and gets a good matchup against a somewhat soft Pirates offense that hasn’t had a whole lot of luck against him in the past. He’s a little expensive of course, but that’s the price you pay for the type of production and reliability he offers. If you’re playing cash games, this is an easy call.
- Gerrit Cole – Cole has looked very good this season as well, but his matchup isn’t quite as easy as Scherzer’s is. Still, his 2.76 carnage rating is very appealing, so you can look to him in all formats as well. A few of the Seattle batters have had some success against him before, so it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to hedge against him in GPP if you decide to roll him out in your cash games.
- Charlie Morton – Another strong candidate, Morton has had a terrific start to the year and faces a Toronto team that has had very little experience with him. While I think he would be just fine for cash games, I’d like him better as a GPP target since he has similar upside to the other high-end pitchers at a slightly reduced price (if you’re playing the all-day slate, that is).
- Jakob Junis – Junis rounds out our top four pitchers today, and gets a Cleveland offense that isn’t really clicking right now. Lindor has been the biggest troublemaker for Junis, but since he’ll be sidelined, this could be a good time to attack them. I don’t expect his ownership to be very high, so he makes an interesting GPP target, even if he is going up against the likes of somebody like Kluber.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
Again, I know these are pretty obvious, but for the sake of researching, let’s take a look at what we’ve got here. We have three pitchers – who aren’t exactly high-end showstoppers – going up against three dangerous offenses that are capable of putting up double-digit scores. With carnage ratings this high, I expect to see plenty of baserunners and longballs coming from these teams. The pitcher’s SIERA ratings also look pretty dreadful, which only adds more fuel to the fire.
Even with 14 games to choose from, these three are bound to be popular, so they would be excellent choices to find a couple of bats for your cash games. They’re certainly viable choices in GPP too, especially since you will have a bunch of good value options to tie together the more expensive bats. Of course, there are other good targets on the carnage report, but the rest of them are for our members only. Sorry!
Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees
Tanaka gets the mound today, and while the White Sox have been randomly showing signs of life, I don’t think they’ll have enough in the tank to really put a hurt on him. Rodon hasn’t been doing too bad either, so this game could certainly turn out to be a tad underwhelming.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Anderson
GPP note – Will likely have a limited ceiling
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge, Voit
Yankees 4 star plays – LeMahieu, Frazier, Torres
GPP note – Could have an unexpectedly limited ceiling
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox draw a bullpen game here, which could be good or bad depending on how they match the batters up. Price will have the mound for the Red Sox, and while he’s certainly a quality pitcher, the Orioles have seen plenty of him over the years, so there won’t be too many surprises for them.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mancini
GPP note – Lots of experience against Price. Could be a blowup spot for them
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Benintendi, Bogaerts, Nunez
GPP note – Bullpen game. Results may vary
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Two quality pitchers face off here, which could turn this game into a pitcher’s duel for 6 or 7 innings. Both offenses have the potential to go off, but I think the pitching will win the day here.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Kiermaier
GPP note – Have the potential to go off, but Stroman is no easy target
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Tellez?
GPP note – Morton is one of the strongest pitchers of the day, so the Blue Jays will have their work cut out for them
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
The Marlins returned the favor yesterday, beating the Phillies 10 to 3. We get two pitchers that can be fairly volatile, but at the same time are fully capable of putting up a troll game and shutting down the other offense for a while. I would lean towards Velasquez having the upper hand here, seeing as the Marlins have had next to no luck against him in the few games they’ve had to see him.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper, Hoskins
Phillies 4 star plays – McCutchen, Segura, Realmuto, Hernandez (BvP special)
GPP note – Pretty good chance of going off, but watch out for the random shutout from Urena
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Granderson?
GPP note – Probably emptied the tank yesterday, but Velasquez has forgotten to show up from time to time
Pittsburg Pirates at Washington Nationals
Mad Max will look to continue his strong start to the year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 10+ strikeout performance by him. The Nationals have no easy task facing Taillon though, so this could easily turn into another pitcher’s duel.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – none
GPP note – You could always stack against the chalk
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Soto, Eaton
GPP note – Tough matchup for the Nationals as well. Decent chance of them being shut down by Taillon
We had another dominant showing in NASCAR yesterday, including this win by maxw81. Congrats!
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Berrios shouldn’t have too much trouble taming these Tigers, and I expect them to give him a fair amount of run support against the soft and often-volatile Zimmermann. They’ve had no problem hitting him in the past, and I think there’s a good probability of a healthy amount of traffic on the bases.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Castellanos, Goodrum
GPP note – Likely to have a limited ceiling
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Cruz, Polanco
GPP note – Zimmermann could get blown up here. A Twins stack is definitely in play
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
The Indians will be using their big gun here today, but the Royals have a pretty decent weapon of their own in Junis. I can definitely see this game being a low-scoring affair, though the Royals have been known to limit Kluber’s ceiling. Without Lindor, the Indians won’t have the usual fireworks going off that he (almost) always provides when he visits the K.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez
GPP note – Always a chance they go off, but I think Junis can limit this Lindor-less lineup
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Mondesi, Gordon, Soler, O’Hearn, Dozier
GPP note – The Royals know Kluber very well and tend to shine at these early games. I see them either getting shut out or exploding, without much of a middle ground
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs
Weather alert! Keep an eye on the sky, or better yet, #dfs-weather if you’re in our coaching channels. As of right now, it doesn’t look very good.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Calhoun, Fletcher
GPP note – It’s going to depend on the weather
Cubs 5 star plays – Heyward, Rizzo, Bryant, Baez
Cubs 4 star plays – Schwarber
GPP note – It’s going to depend on the weather
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
With two potent offenses at a hitter-friendly ballpark, this game has fireworks written all over it. Watch out for Anderson though, as he’s done a pretty good job at limiting damage this year. A game stack is certainly in play, but I think Oakland has the better chance of going off here.
Athletics 5 star plays – Davis
Athletics 4 star plays – Just about everybody else
GPP note – Sure to be popular, they’re in another great spot to go off, so be sure to give them a look
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Andrus, DeShields, Forsythe
GPP note – Watch out for Anderson, as he’s not rolling over and dying. He could limit this offense
Colorado Rockies at San Fransico Giants
We have one pitcher who has proven himself on the road, one pitcher who has had a very strong start to the year, and one ballpark that is very friendly to said pitchers. This looks like yet another game that could be a low-scoring affair, so I would be a little careful going overboard here. That said, the Giants have seen Marquez plenty, and stranger things have happened…
Rockies 5 star plays – Arenado, Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Hampson
GPP note – Haven’t quite clicked yet, but that breakout game is getting closer one day at a time
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Crawford
GPP note – Not super likely to go off, but they have seen Marquez a bunch, and they are good at going bananas when nobody is on them
Pretty sweet return right here. Congrats, permastunt!
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
This game features two explosive offenses that are capable of putting up 10+ runs each, but at the same time, two pitchers who could shut the other team down for 6 or 7 innings. Either outcome is possible, but I’m leaning towards the pitchers here as well. I’m not against grabbing a bat or two here for cash games, but I would focus more on the softer pitching targets for the majority of your batters. This game has more of a GPP feel to it on both sides of the plate (except Cole, he’s fine in cash).
Houston 5 star plays – Altuve, Springer, Bregman
Houston 4 star plays – Correa, Brantley, Gurriel
GPP note – Could potentially have a lower ceiling than expected
Seattle 5 star plays – none
Seattle 4 star plays – Haniger, Bruce, Encarnacion, Vogelbach
GPP note – They face a very good pitcher, but that doesn’t mean you have to ignore them in GPP. They could still put up 10+ runs if they can get to Cole
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
These games sure are fun to watch, aren’t they? Both teams have looked very strong and will have another bout against one another today. The edge here goes to the Dodgers, as they get the softer of the two pitchers. I could see this game playing out like yesterday’s did, only in reverse (something like a 3 or 4 to 1 ballgame in favor of the Dodgers). The Brewers have very little experience against Stripling, and I generally like to give the nod to the pitcher in those situations.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich, Grandal
Brewers 4 star plays – Cain, Shaw, Moustakas
GPP note – This game could favor the Dodgers, but the Brewers are pretty much always worth a stack somewhere
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Seager, Muncy
GPP note – I think the Dodgers win here, but I’m not sure that they’ll put up 10+ runs in the process
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
After a rough start, Geinke has looked sharp in his most recent games, and he’s been known to be very tough at home. While the Padres have seen a fair amount of him, I think he’ll have the upper hand here, and he’ll try to make it three straight games with at least 9 strikeouts. The Diamondbacks aren’t very scary right now, and Lauer has done a fine job himself, so you guessed it…this could be yet another low-scoring game.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Renfroe (BvP)
GPP note – They have a tough task ahead of them today, and might not score more than a run or two here
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Jones, Marte (BvP), Peralta
GPP note – Not super threatening and Lauer has held his own. They could be pretty limited here
Saint Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
And finally, we reach our last game of the main slates. These teams have seen their opposing pitchers plenty, and there is some carnage lingering around, so there could definitely be some fireworks here. With a slate full of big offenses, this could be a good sneaky target.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Carpenter (see below), Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – DeJong, Ozuna, Wong
GPP note – DeSclafani has been pretty soft to lefties…just sayin!
Reds 5 star plays – Votto
Reds 4 star plays – Winker, Suarez
GPP note – Mikolas isn’t striking out a ton of batters, so the ball is likely to be in play a bunch here. I smell…carnage?
Tiers are fun!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 6:
It’s hard not to just take Heyward for cash, but there are several good GPP alternatives in there. Carpenter has cooled off a little, but with how much DeSclafani has been getting hit by lefties, this could be a great spot for him to have another big day. Kepler has been hitting righties well, and it looks like Zimmerman is giving up some big hits to lefties. Myers hasn’t had a lot of luck against righties, but Greinke has shown some unexpected reverse splits recently, so that could be an interesting place to attack as well.
Don’t worry, we crush Tiers, too. Congrats, Semper!
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for all of the games today. There was a lot to digest here, but those are the cards we’re dealt sometimes.
As always, if you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. If you want to try before you buy, be sure to check out our free trial offer. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all enjoy your Sunday. Good luck!
