Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process
A consistent process that works will help you complete your research in a timely fashion. Consistent processes also give you confidence to ride through the rough times a volatile sport like MLB will throw your direction. I have a simple process where I start with good pitchers, bad pitchers, and stackable offenses using the strong bats within. I explain in three quick steps…
Identifying Quality MLB Pitching
I will use a combination of Vegas odds, KScore (definition inside DFS Army), and DFSA Grade (also inside DFS Army) to find the best combination of all three at the cheapest price. I will find a great pitcher showing strength in all areas, and I will try to find a cheaper pitcher that doesn’t sacrifice too much in any of these categories. Some days I can find cheaper pitching. Other days, I’m paying all the way up. Every slate is a fingerprint, and we live with what the slate offers rather than force plays in just because we like them.
In this example, even though they are underdogs, it’s going to be hard to get past the KScores and prices of Robbie Ray on Fanduel and Jack Flaherty on Draftkings. Everything else either sacrifices KScore or costs more just to gain favorable Veags odds. Cole looks nice, but would you really pay $2000-$3000 more for 6 points of DFSA Grade while still giving up nearly 20-40 points of KScore? I wouldn’t. I like saving money I can apply to bats.
Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses
When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators. Look at all that green circled! These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble). To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.
Today, we want to target Estrada, Harvey, Holland, and possibly Peralta and Boyd with their opponent’s bats. The next step is finding which bats in these offenses are producing.
How To Find MLB Hitters – WScore
There are lots of factors used in targeting hitters. I will periodically change this up, but for awhile, we will use WScore from the DFS Army Research Station. WScore uses the pitcher’s woba and iso against per handedness of the batter versus the woba and iso for the hitter. This baseline stat gives us an indicator of who reaches base with some power (woba) and adds in some extra juice in the power category (iso) to target hitters more inclined to do damage facing pitchers more inclined to allow damage. Sort of “strength on weakness,” if you will. Higher is better, and over 600 is going to be elite. Here is a quick image of the top plays on the slate. Below, we start talking games and specific players…
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Odds: TOR -135, 8.5 o/u
Toronto throws a middling Matt Shoemaker at Detroit, and I can go either way. I’m not particularly high on this offense, but Shoemaker can be had for some runs if you want to take some gpp shots with Tiger bats. I should note this early in the year, we are using large base stats of two years until we get some recent data, and Miguel Cabrera is not an MLB player I’m inclined to trust anymore. He’ll have games, but he’s not the threat he once was. On the flip side, many of us had too much Toronto yesterday and fell victim to the walking on water of Jordan Zimmerman. But, that said, Matt Boyd can be targeted with some pretty poor baseline numbers. Jays bats will in play in all formats should you trust your indicators.
DET 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Cabrera?, Castellanos, Goodrum
Cash viable – none
GPP note – Only in larger field contests to go against the grain some.
TOR 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Hernandez, Pillar, Smoak, Grichuk, Drury
Cash viable – Drury
GPP note – Definitely consider stacking up and down this lineup today
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
Odds: HOU -145, 7 o/u
Houston did a little damage yesterday against the AL Cy Young winner proving they can hit just about anyone at any time. Today, they draw former teammate Charlie Morton. Morton doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, but he also isn’t a beast that has to be avoided. I’ll incorporate some Astros in lineups, but I would likely avoid them if only building a few lineups today and wait for a more obvious MLB pitcher to attack. Tampa doesn’t get off easy with the highest DFSA Graded pitcher on the slate in Gerrit Cole (grade 100.0). We can avoid Rays bats.
HOU 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Altuve, Bregman, Chirinos
Cash viable – Altuve, Bregman
GPP note – Temper stacking for softer pitching.
TBR 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP note – none
Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins
Odds: COL -160, 7.5 o/u
Colorado draws Trevor Richards, and this isn’t some scary matchup. It’s not exactly one we are looking to focus on, either. The big names will get some love from me, though…..and they are always underowned on the road. Miami does draw a competent pitcher with their weaker lineup. I won’t have exposure outside of Curtis Granderson……God love him for embracing that rebuild positively from what I’ve seen.
COL 5 Star Plays – Arenado
4 Star Plays – Story, Blackmon, Dahl
Cash viable – Arenado, Blackmon
GPP note – COL on road is always lower owned. Feel free to stack in gpps.
MIA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Granderson
Cash viable – none
GPP note – I can’t see stacking Marlins often.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Odds: MIL -115, 8.5 o/u
St. Louis produced from the bottom of the lineup yesterday showing you never to ignore lower order players in gpps when they are in solid spots versus weaker pitching. Wily Peralta is a pitcher we don’t fear, but the Cardinals don’t have a great history against him. Milwaukee proved we can also ignore a lot of the BVP talk (even though it’s a fun debate) because reigning NL MVP, Christian Yelich, delivered the big blow despite never doing damage against Miles Mikolas before. Today, The Brew Crew draws the Cardinals true ace, Jack Flaherty. I have no issues stacking Brewers in gpps. I won’t be using them in cash being Flaherty is one of the stronger options on the slate. However, this MIL lineup is legit filthy and formidable in any matchup.
STL 5 Star Plays – Carpenter
4 Star Plays – Fowler, Wong
Cash viable – Carpenter, Wong
GPP note – Wong is streaky and tends to stay hot for awhile. Use him while he’s cheaper.
MIL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Aguilar, Yelich, Shaw
Cash viable – none
GPP note – Deadly lineup should get you low ownership in larger field gpps.
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LA Angels @ Oakland Athletics
Odds: OAK -115, 8.5 o/u
Game stack warning! Both pitchers in this one show some bad metrics we can attack with stacks of hitters. Estrada carries a 4.99 SIERA into the year, and Harvey’s is not much better at 4.66. We are still in the fronts of rotations, so we aren’t going to see a ton of weak pitching across the slate. You need to focus on the bad pitching you do find today.
LAA 5 Star Plays – Trout
4 Star Plays – Cozart, Bour, Pujols
Cash viable – Trout, Cozart
GPP note – I expect this game to be a little chalky.
OAK 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Davis, Chapman, Profar, Grossman
Cash viable – none
GPP note – Same as above.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ LA Dodgers
Odds: LAD -165, 7.5 o/u
Both pitchers here are rather competent. Like the Brewers, the Dodgers have a lethal lineup. But, they don’t have a lot of smash history against Robbie Ray. So, I can let other people possibly chase yesterday’s explosion here. I won’t be interested in many Diamondbacks, either.
ARI 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Jones
Cash viable – none
GPP note – Nothing exciting
LAD 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – Kike Hernandez does have history with Ray….and is worthy of a sneaky one-off shot in your gpp lineups.
Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners
Odds: BOS -150, 8 o/u
Boston draws Nathan Eovaldi tonight, and again, this is neither a situation to avoid nor attack. It sort of is what it is. We have other targets on tonight’s slate, but mixing in Red Sox is fine. It’s a powerful offense we can use in middling spots like this. Seattle, however, draws a pitcher no one knows how to predict just yet with no realistic experience in the MLB. I will be using the hotter than hot Tim Beckham in quite a few lineups though. Baseball is a streaky game, and you just have to ride hot hands when you find them.
BOS 5 Star Plays – JD Martinez, Betts
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – Betts
GPP note – Nothing sneaky.
SEA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Bruce, Beckham
Cash viable – Beckham
GPP note – Beckham is white hot right now.
SF Giants @ SD Padres
Odds: SDP -150, 7.5 o/u
The Giants draw Joey Lucchesi, who actually makes for a decent gamble on Draftkings as your pitcher tonight. So, I’m not as interested in Giants bats, but there are a few plays being Lucchesi isn’t exactly a dominant pitcher, either. The Padres, however, have a stackable situation with Derek Holland and his 4.81 SIERA. The Padres are perhaps my 3rd favorite offense to roster tonight.
SFG 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Longoria, Posey
Cash viable – Posey
GPP note – Nothing of note.
SDP 5 Star Plays – Renfroe, Machado
4 Star Plays – Myers, Kinsler, Margot, Tatis jr
Cash viable – Machado, Kinsler
GPP note – Might not qualify as sneaky, but definitely where I’ll have heavy usage.
Starting Lineups for every game! And, complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades. You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up. Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today….
Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…
Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs. However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you. Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition. There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!
GPP Sleeper stack = Kinsler/Myers/Machado -5 Star Plays – Straight to the top of the San Diego order here. Even if I’m not super sneaky, I won’t have a ton of company here, either, across the whole stack.
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our MLB coaching rooms all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process a few times a week, and with a little more time, VIP strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed and profitable day.
