Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
I do want to start off each slate I cover with a basic graphic targeting pitching. Pitching tells us a lot in DFS MLB from who might earn us a lot of fantasy points to who we can also attack with stacks of bats. This graphic will focus on the first part. The game by game chatter below will focus on the latter. Fanduel is where we typically pay up to the top range for stud pitching, and Draftkings is where we might skip the very top in favor of two pitchers as close to the top as we can sensibly get without strapping ourselves too tightly in terms of salary cap.
Everything in DFS carries a budget, and we are always looking for value (mispriced players). I love the combination of Vegas Odds, KScore (my metric, inquire within DFS Army coaching channels), and DFSA Grade (overall measure of matchup). I often opt for the cheapest pitcher showing strong in each category I can find. I often have to sacrifice a little, and so will you. But, this gets us started in a sound direction.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Odds: NYY -410, 9 o/u
We start off with a decent game on one side and not so great on the other. Large slates allow us to focus on the best of the best and largely ignore the rest. I’ll be ignoring Orioles bats and targeting the snot out of Andrew Cashner’s slate worst DFSA grade of 11.8 and 2018 SIERA of 5.44. I won’t be worried as much about ownership today because large slates are ripe for overthinkers. I also won’t worry about stacking against chalky pitchers to gain leverage on the field unless I see something really juicy, and I just don’t see anything juicy from Orioles bats.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – none
The odds in this game really jumped from the opening line of -360. As mentioned, I’ll be targeting Cashner with bats up and down this lineup where it makes sense. You are going to want Yankees in all formats, but you might temper back your exposure in the cash contests to spread your risk some. The prices will be tough, but you can make stacks work if you put in the effort.
5 Star Plays – Judge (OF)
4 Star Plays – Stanton (OF), Voit (1B), Sanchez (C), Andujar (3B), Gardner (OF)
Cash viable – Gardner, Voit
GPP Sleepers – there won’t be sneaky Yankees, but it’s also a large enough slate you can differentiate with your other stack in gpps.
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Odds: WAS -135, 6.5 o/u
I’m really not in the habit of targeting Max Scherzer, especially on large slates. Your DFS account will catch fire faster than a Scherzer fastball. Pitcher – Of course deGrom is in play, and likely serves as a solid gpp pivot away from Scherzer.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – Conforto (OF)
I’m also not inclined to target bats against Jacob deGrom, either. These are arguably the best two pitchers on the slate facing off. That’s not good for bats when we have plenty of other options. Pitcher – Scherzer is the overwhelming top choice at pitcher for any format…..if you can afford him.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – Eaton (OF)
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Odds: MIL -115, 8.5 o/u
I’m not sure what the Brewers are thinking running Jhoulys Chacin out for Opening Day, but as a Cardinals fan, I’ll take it and run. Chacin carries a low DFSA grade of 23.4. Why? Because he also has a mid-4s SIERA, low swinging strike rate, high contact rate, and pretty nasty hard contact rate. Easy translation: He doesn’t miss a lot of barrels when behind in counts. I’ll be focused on the top half of the Cardinals order, and I might take a chance on Dexter Fowler being he shows some decent history vs Chacin. Pitcher – Mikolas isn’t a high strikeout guy with a lot of upside, but he has a low likelihood of dud in his game, too. If he can dodge a couple of the more problematic Brewers he’s had fits with, he makes a decent SP2 on Draftkings.
5 Star Plays – Carpenter (3B)
4 Star Plays – Goldschmidt (1B), Ozuna (OF), DeJong (SS), Fowler (OF)
Cash viable – Carpenter
GPP Sleepers – Any stacked combo on a larger slate like this.
Miles Mikolas doesn’t give a lot of hard contact, but he’s had his troubles with the Brewers historically. Brewer bats like Shaw and Cain are in play for sure. You can also stack around them, but I might avoid Christian Yelich. In 12 at bats vs Mikolas, Yelich only has 2 hits but has struck out 4 times. Pitcher – Chacin is not on my radar.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Cain (OF), Shaw (3B), Moustakas (2B), Grandal (C)
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – sneaky stacks of Brewers including Shaw and Cain will fly under radars.
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
Odds: PHI -195, 8 o/u
Atlanta has a somewhat formidable lineup, but Aaron Nola isn’t a target of mine on larger slates. I can wait for better matchups outside of some historical gambles. Pitcher – Teheran can be tattooed and I won’t be using him vs Phillies bats.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – Markakis (OF)
Philadelphia has some solid history when it comes to roughing up Julio Teheran. I’ll not share the biggest secret on the slate publicly, but our VIPs already have this tip in our coaching channels. I will be looking to grab several Phillies bats on Opening Day 2019. Pitcher – Aaron Nola is in a great Draftkings spot, but he’s also gpp usable on Fanduel and I’ll mix him in there, too.
5 Star Plays – Harper (OF), Hoskins (1B)
4 Star Plays – McCutcheon (OF), Herrera (OF)
Cash viable – Harper, Herrera
GPP Sleepers – Larger slate where ownership is spread out.
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Odds: TOR -145, 9 o/u
There isn’t a lot to talk about in Detroit today facing Marcus Stroman. Stroman is a middling pitcher and Detroit is a middling offense heading into 2019. I won’t be very focused here. Pitcher – Zimmerman will not be on my radar as a pitcher.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – none
Toronto, on the other hand, has a solid matchup. Jordan Zimmerman has a low DFSA Grade at 28.6 and an even worse “bad” rating at a 20.0. This number indicates he can be attacked by bats. Smoak, Grichuk, and Billy McKinney all carry solid matchup numbers on the day and may be focal points in a stack of yours. Pitcher – Stroman has outside chances of landing in my lineups, but I’ll likely stay focused on more elite pitching.
5 Star Plays – Smoak (1B), Grichuk (OF)
4 Star Plays – McKinney(OF), Morales (C), Drury (2B)
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – Any stack here should be lower owned on a big opening day slate.
Top DFSA Grades from our VIP-only Research Station loaded with every stat imaginable. For people that want quick research, the Batter’s Eye, Diamond Ratings, and overall DFSA Grade will be your wheelhouse. For those wanting more, scroll right and open up Vegas, matchup info, StatCast data, splits, park factors, and even sabermetrics like O-Swing and Z-Swing numbers. Learn as you go inside DFS Army, as we also have the coaches to explain the numbers to you as you grow into the sport….
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
Odds: HOU -140, 6.5 o/u
Houston comes into the season facing Blake Snell, and this one can go either way. Snell has some strikeout upside, but Houston has a couple batters with history of roughing him up. I’d keep them to gpps today, but I’d watch a couple of the hitters with a close eye for a potentially big first game. Pitcher – Verlander is in consideration for all formats today, and he may fly under the radar a bit.
5 Star Plays – Bregman (3B)
4 Star Plays – White (C), Chirinos (C), Altuve (2B), Springer (OF)
Cash viable – Bregman, Altuve
GPP Sleepers – White, Chirinos, Altuve, Bregman – wrap stack
I won’t be looking Tampa Bay’s way facing Verlander today. If some small sample BVP guys do damage, not many in the industry will have them. You don’t have a big FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) factor in this one. Pitcher – Snell might make a couple lineups of mine, but it’s very risky versus a strong Houston team with a little history against him. Again, this one can go either way.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – none on a larger slate
Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers
Odds: CHI -135, 9.5 o/u
The Chicago Cubs open the season in a notorious hitter’s park, and I don’t mean Wrigley. They are in Arlington facing Mike Minor, and Minor can be had. But, he also has upside making the Cubbies bats more of a gpp option today. Pitcher – Jon Lester is aging and facing a solid lineup in a hitter’s park. I won’t be dipping down here.
5 Star Plays – Bryant (3B)
4 Star Plays – Baez (SS), Bote (3B), Contreras (C)
Cash viable – Bryant
GPP Sleepers – Bryant, Baez, Contreras should provide punch if it connects while also flying under the radar.
Jon Lester is also attackable making this Texas game stackable on both sides. Lester has seen his walks and home runs allowed per 9 innings creep upward the past couple seasons. The Rangers launch the ball skyward at home, too. We can definitely take a look at some Texas bats. Pitcher – Mike Minor can be used in deeper gpps, but sparingly. He’s very boom or bust.
5 Star Plays – Gallo (1B)
4 Star Plays – Andrus (SS)
Cash viable – Andrus
GPP Sleepers – focus on the top of the order through Gallo.
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
Odds: OAK -120, 9 o/u
The Angels can get to Trevor Cahill today. Being a day game, the ball might fly a little better here than at night, also. Mike Trout has one of the stronger matchups on any slate, and this one is no different. Surround him with other bats like Bour and perhaps aging Albert Pujols and you might connect with your stack. Pitcher – Fiers can implode, too….not on my radar.
5 Star Plays – Trout (OF)
4 Star Plays – Bour (1B), Cozart (3B), Pujols (1B), Lucroy (C)
Cash viable – Trout, Cozart
GPP Sleepers – a big middle order stack like Trout/Bour/Pujols
Oakland draws a decent matchup with Mike Fiers, too. This game can shoot out today. Both Cahill and Fiers carry some bad numbers.
5 Star Plays – Davis (OF)
4 Star Plays – Chapman (3B), Piscotty (OF), Pinder (OF)
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – Davis as a one-off or paired with the 4 star plays.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Odds: LAD -165, 7.5 o/u
Arizona’s lineup looks a little different this year. They also draw a tougher matchup against a crafty Hyun-Jin Ryu. I don’t need to tackle Diamondbacks bats today with all my other choices. Pitcher – Greinke has some room for play, but probably mostly on Draftkings.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – Ketel Marte (OF)
The Dodgers get to face Zack Greinke, and have roughed him up before. I don’t mind them as a gpp stack many might not see as viable. Greinke carries a higher DFSA grade, but I see some strong BVP against him here making me want to take a couple shots. Pitcher – Ryu has sneaky upside here for the price. I don’t mind him at all on Draftkings.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Bellinger (1B), Turner (3B), Seager (SS), Muncy (OF), Pederson (OF)
Cash viable – Turner
GPP Sleepers – Kike Hernandez, Bellinger, Pederson if not going with the big guns up top.
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Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins
Odds: CLE -120, 7.5 o/u
Jose Berrios displayed some upside last year, but he faces a formidable lineup and has more bad in this matchup than good. I’ll be picking some meaty bats to run out against him, but they hinge around all three suiting up to play, as a couple of Indians are currently questionable. Pitcher – Kluber is a fine all-format option for the slate.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Santana (1B), Ramirez? (3B), Bauers (OF)
Cash viable – Ramirez?….if playing
GPP Sleepers – if Ramirez suits up, all three make a good 2-3-4 stack.
I’m not into attacking a true ace like Corey Kluber, but Minnesota does have some bats with sample size and history against him. The likely 6-7 mini stack of Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Schoop fit the bill nicely with a combined 13/32 with 3 collective bombs off him. Pitcher – I will not be using Berrios in any format.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – Gonzalez/Schoop mini stack
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
Odds: CIN -125, 8.5 o/u
We can target a wide assortment of Pittsburgh bats today with Luis Castillo carrying a low swinging strike number and a high hard hit rate percentage. In a park where balls fly, we might want exposure here. Pitcher – I don’t need either pitcher in this bandbox of a park.
5 Star Plays – Dickerson (OF)
4 Star Plays – Chisenhall (OF), Bell (1B), Frazier (2B), Kang (3B)
Cash viable – Frazier
GPP Sleepers – any stack will be a sneaky sleeper
The Reds are not in the position the Pirates are for DFS purposes, but there are a couple bats to utilize. Taillon isn’t a hard thrower and he uses movement to avoid barrels of bats. Contact batters, however, can put the ball in play against him. You would think this would play into Joey Votto’s hands, but his history isn’t great here with only 5 hits in 27 at bats against Taillon. Pitcher – Same as above.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Winker (2B), Puig (OF), Schebler (OF)
Cash viable – Winker
GPP Sleepers – Puig, Schebler
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres
Odds: SDP -110, 7.5 o/u
Eric Lauer doesn’t grade out well and gives up too much hard contact. The Giants, however, don’t appear to be a terribly intimidating offense, either. One-off plays are ok, but I won’t be stacking many Giants in lieu of stronger offenses. Pitcher – Bumgarner just isn’t what he used to be. I don’t need him on Fanduel, and maybe not on Draftkings.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Posey (C), Belt (1B), Duggar (OF)
Cash viable – Posey
GPP Sleepers – none
Bumgarner isn’t the pitcher he used to be. He gave up a ton of hard contact last year, and we’ll need to see him bounce back a bit before feeling confident in him. That bodes well for a few of the Padres bats. I won’t be stacking too hard against MadBum, but I’ll take a bat here and there. Pitcher – Lauer doesn’t need to be used today.
5 Star Plays – Renfroe (OF), Machado (SS)
4 Star Plays – Myers (OF), Kinsler (2B)
Cash viable – Kinsler
GPP Sleepers – none
Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins
Odds: COL -150, 7.5 o/u
Jose Urena doesn’t have a lot of good going for him, but surprisingly he doesn’t have a lot of bad, either. He is just a very middling pitcher right now. The Rockies have bats that can do heavy damage, though, so I’m going to want some…….while tempering expectations of a pure offensive explosion due to one of the worst hitting environments in baseball. Pitcher – I don’t need shares of Freeland at the expense of others.
5 Star Plays – Blackmon (OF), Murphy (1B)
4 Star Plays – Dahl (OF), Arenado (3B)
Cash viable – Blackmon, Murphy, Arenado
GPP Sleepers – The bats mentioned are stackable and will carry lower ownership on a bigger slate and the fact people don’t like Rockies on the road.
Kyle Freeland is a lot like Jose Urena in that he’s middling and doesn’t do a lot of good or a lot of bad. That said, I’m still not interested in any Marlins bats. And, that might just make Freeland playable on Draftkings. Pitcher – I won’t touch Urena.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – none
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Odds: KCR -115, 8.5 o/u
Both sides of this one feature middling pitching with weaker offenses. I won’t be targeting much in either direction with enthusiasm. I apologize in advance to both fan bases. Pitcher – Rodon just doesn’t do a lot well, and KC typically doesn’t strikeout further capping his upside.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Palka (OF)
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – none
Same as above. Pitcher – Keller is similar to Rodon in DFSA Grade and KScore. I’ll take a pass.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Soler (OF), Merrifield (2B)
Cash viable – maybe Merrifield
GPP Sleepers – none
Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners
Odds: BOS -210, 7 o/u
The nightcap wasn’t on a lot of slates, but is in the showdown games. For showdowns, I like to stack against the favorite, but I might not tackle Chris Sale tonight. Boston will be chalky to say the least, and you can gain leverage with Mariners bats should they squeak out a few runs. However, sometimes the way to win showdowns is with the best player in your captain spot, a lot of luck, and the right combo of chalk.
Starting Lineups for every game! And, complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades. You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up. Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today….
Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…
Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs. However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you. Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition. There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!
GPP Sleeper stack = Gonzalez/Schoop mini from Minny! – I have no issues playing the bvp card here, and might run this cost controlled stack out quite a bit today. However, as stated, this is a large slate and there is no reason to go crazy overthinking ownership. Watch your score in the biggest contests possible and I bet you don’t see yourself tied or duplicated with anyone. That’s all that really matters………that you are unique. If unique, you find yourself atop the leaderboards with all the money to yourself if you just grab the right combination of players. Keep it simple, and let’s have a great year!
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our MLB coaching rooms all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process a few times a week, and with a little more time, VIP strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed and profitable day.
