Welcome to the September 4th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
Mike Clevinger (9.9k FD) (11k DK) vs KC
Pretty big price difference here for Clevinger, where his fanduel price is a bit more appealing to me. The matchup against the Royals is a good one and he has faced them a few times this season already. He comes into this start with a solid 24.7% strikeout rate this season and struck out 8 in his last start against these Royals. His K numbers have been pretty solid all season and normally we can expect 6+ from him. Clevinger has had some better numbers on the road this year, but the matchup is just too good tonight. In 3 starts against KC this season, Clevinger has done very well fantasy scoring. He has an average of 38 FD/19.2 DK points against the Royals this season, but his strikeouts have been higher each start against them. He has been able to get more strikeouts lately which is encouraging for me. Coming into this game, the Royals have a decently high strikeout rate at 22.6%, and they are actually one of the better teams in the league over the L14 days. Despite that, they are still the Royals and Clevinger has been very good this season. Against him, the Royals hitters are hitting just .190 with a 33.3% strikeout rate with just 2 HR over 84 at-bats. Clevinger can be wild at points and run up his pitch count. He has improved his control from last season, but I still think he’s a bit risky in cash games tonight. He is a much better play on fanduel than DraftKings though given the price difference.
Justin Verlander (11k FD) (12.3k DK) vs MIN
Originally, I was not really on Verlander as his recent form has not been the greatest and he’s expensive. But, especially for cash games, we want safety and higher floors. Verlander is a great cash game option tonight, and yes still has tournament upside. Verlander has the highest strikeout rate on this slate at 33.7% and he also has the 2nd lowest walk rate at 4.5%. Hitters are struggling to get on base against him as he has a 0.95 WHIP and a wonderful 2.75 SIERA (best on the slate). No one besides Mauer really has notable at-bats against him. Minnesota comes into this game with a decent 22.6% strikeout rate against RHP in their L14 and they are pretty average in other advanced stats. Verlander has the 3rd lowest Hard% on this slate tonight at 29% and he’s been very good at home this season. I do worry that the Twins will be able to run his pitch count up quick and early, but we know he still can toss 110+ pitches when he goes out there as 15 of his 26 starts have between 100-119 pitches (per research station). The Twins offense doesn’t really scare me all that much and Verlander got back to 11 strikeouts the last start against a team that doesn’t really strikeout that much (LAA). Verlander is a safe option in cash games tonight, and still can be used in tournaments as he’s shown 50/30 (FD/DK) point games a ton this season.
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Lucas Giolito (7.9k FD) (6.3k DK) vs DET
Definitely a tournament play tonight, but I love the way he’s been throwing lately. Over the last month, Giolito has put up 37 or more fanduel points in 5 of his last 6, and also 4 of his last 6 he’s scored more than 20 draftkings points. He has faced some decent offenses lately too, but what I love more is he’s faced the Tigers twice in this last month and has totally dominated them. In this span, Lucas has an amazing .278 xwOBA in that span and has gone 6+ innings in all but 1 start. He’s showing some good strikeout stuff with at least 6 in each of his last 6 starts, with just one bad one against the Yankees. The start against NYY was his only start where he didn’t record a QS in the last month (since 8/3). The Tigers also have the 6th highest strikeout rate in the L14 vs RHP at a very high 25.5% and are not walking at all with the lowest walk rate in that span at 3.8%. Over 75 at-bats, the Tigers are hitting just .227 against Giolito with a 22.6% strikeout rate. I can see him getting another 6+ innings with 7+ strikeouts in this start tonight and will be low owned. I love his price on both sites tonight for tournaments.
German Marquez (9.5k FD) (9.3k DK) vs SFG
It’s no secret anymore how good Marquez is, in and outside of Coors. Marquez is a legit starter and people are beginning to notice it. When you get a pitcher in Coors field priced this high, the sites have noticed that they can’t make him dirt cheap anymore, no matter where he’s pitching. Marquez also gets to face the terrible Giants in Coors and he should have a field day with them. Last start against the Padres, he totally tore them apart, and he should do the same tonight. Coming into this start, Marquez has the 6th highest strikeout rate on the slate at 26%. He’s been racking up the strikeouts and fantasy points as well. The last time he scored under 40 fanduel points was July 20th, and before that he scored 58, 40, and 46. That one bad start clearly didnt phase him as he’s rolled off 7 straight quality starts, racking up the strikeouts and going deep into games. Factor in that the Giants have a 28% strikeout rate coming into this game, hitting just .189, with a horrible 58 wRC+ and .282 xwOBA. Marquez likely will be pretty chalky even being in Coors, but I would eat that chalk, because he’s going for 40/20+ tonight. It is always risky using a pitcher in Coors for cash games, but I would not mind it tonight given the amazing matchup.
Rich Hill (9.2k FD) (10k DK) vs NYM
The Mets have not been that bad lately, and have actually been hitting a good amount. Hill does rate out as our 2nd highest pitcher tonight and it’s good that he gets to pitch at home. Since his DL stint earlier this year, Hill has been very good. He’s had just 2 starts where he allowed more than 3 ER, and has scored at least 30 fanduel points in all but 2 starts. Hill has average about 6 strikeouts per start in that span as well. The Mets aren’t striking out all that much right now, but they have just a .303 xwOBA in the L14 vs LHP. The Mets are implied under 3 runs right now and their projected lineup doesn’t really look that scary. Hill has actually gotten more strikeouts this season against RHH, but has overall been better vs LHH. Normally, the late night game gets overlooked and we can get HIll at low ownership where he can pop off for a very solid game.
Trevor Richards (6.6k FD) (7.3k DK) vs PHI
Total tournament play tonight, but I think he could be in a sneaky spot for us. He doesn’t grade out well, and we all know the Marlins stink. Richards just faced two of the best offenses in the league his last two starts in the Red Sox and Yankees and he had two great games. For his price, we don’t need all that much. In those two starts, he allowed a total of just 6 hits in 11 innings with 15 strikeouts. The Phillies come into this game with just a .316 xwOBA over their L14 vs RHP and they have the 7th biggest difference from wOBA-xwOBA. Richards has a pretty high walk rate (10%), but he does have a good 23.6% strikeout rate. Richards has about a full 2 run ERA better at home this season than on the road. In pretty much the same number of innings, Richards has allowed 12 less ER and 14 less hits. The Phillies still have some strikeouts in their lineup, and Richards can score 30+ point tonight. He’s risky, but it could be worth it at his price tag to get a ton of hitters.
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MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Justin Verlander (all formats)
- German Marquez (all formats)
- Mike Clevinger (lean GPP, better play on fanduel)
- Rich Hill (all formats)
- Lucas Giolito (GPP)
- Trevor Richards (GPP)
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: Verlander, Clevinger, Happ
2: Marquez, Hill, Ray, Arrieta
3: Giolito, Musgrove, Duffy, Minor
4: Richards, LeBlanc, Miley
Good Luck Everyone!
