Welcome folks! Today will be a bit different with a small slate and NFL with starting. I will break down each game for Fanduel and Draftkings tonight!
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
A little change for tonight’s article! Since there are only 4 games, I will be going game by game giving the who I like for pitchers and what bats I like! Enjoy! Play light and gear more towards tournaments tonight! Save those bankrolls for week 1 of NFL!
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds (-155) O/U: 8.5
Eric Lauer (L) vs Luis Castillo (R)
Pitching
Luis Castillo: He’s the guy in this game. I’m not going to entertain Eric Lauer at all. Castillo is one of my favorite options tonight and he likely will be chalky. His home/road splits are pretty drastic, being he’s MUCH better at home. He’s allowed just a .291 wOBA at home this season and a .302 xwOBA at home. He has a wonderful 27.7% strikeout rate at home compared to just 19% on the road. Castillo is by far the best value on our slate tonight on fanduel (the game is not on DraftKings main slate). Small Slates like this, I don’t see many good options, for the savings you get from the top guys, eat some chalk here.
Bats
Reds: With the Reds tonight, pretty much their whole lineup is in play. Lauer has been horrible to both sides of the plate, so having a lefty in this matchup can work out. Lauer allowed over a .350 wOBA to both sides. The Reds have some lefty mashers in their lineup too. Like I said, this whole lineup can be stacked, I wouldn’t leave anyone out when making multiple lineups. Suarez will likely be chalky, but don’t leave Votto, Gennett, and Schebler out of your stacks. You can also get a low owned guy like Barnhart who can pop off too, plus people don’t like playing catchers, Barnhart has some amazing power! Stack em up!
Padres: If you’re going to play some Padres bats, I want the power guys. Where Castillo can struggle is with lefties. The Padres for me are more of a 1-off play in the likes of Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, or Franmil Reyes. The Padres are implied just 3.8 runs right now. Castillo can struggle against lefties, but the Padres don’t have many good ones. Those three listed are the only ones I’ll be looking at.
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals (-117) O/U: 8.5
Kyle Hendricks (R) vs Stephen Strasburg (R)
Pitching
Kyle Hendricks: I’m not a Hendricks fan. He is one of the most boring pitchers in the league, but he’s definitely in play tonight. He’s worse on the road and is pretty neutral to both sides of the plate. Washington has been pretty hot of late, but Hendricks could stifle them. He doesn’t normally get hit very hard and gets near 50% ground balls. Kyle has the best xwOBA on this slate in the last 45 days at just .240 and he’s not getting hit hard at all. Hendricks has actually been very good lately putting up 30 points on fanduel consistently. When you have a small slate like this, you take the points when you can get them. In his last 8 starts, he has scored no less than 28 fanduel points and has topped 15+ DK points in 6 of the last 8. Against Washington last time he was okay, going 6 innings with 5 strikeouts and a quality start. He’s such a “meh” pitcher, but on this small slate, he’s in play.
Stephen Strasburg: Strasburg looked pretty bad his first two starts off the DL giving up 11 runs in just over 8 innings. He was better in his last 2 against the Brewers and the Phillies scoring 37 fanduel points and 18.7/19.3 DK points. Those numbers are just fine for tonight, where the winning lineup could have a low scoring pitcher. We all know how much he can struggle when it’s hot and humid out. I’m not sure how humid it will be, but Mark has the temp at 88 degrees. He’s was hit very hard in his first two outings back but has since been better in the last two. He also was getting more GB’s in the last two as well. Small slate, almost everyone is in play, but I’ll likely have fewer shares of him tonight than others.
Bats
Cubs: I won’t go crazy using a ton of Cubs bats because Strasburg is a great pitcher and can shut down this offense tonight. I do worry about the heat though with him. The main two I’m going to target for the Cubbies are Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rizzo. Both guys have over .380 xwOBA’s over the L14 vs RHP and are hitting with very good power and low strikeout rates. Ben Zobrist is always in play to get a few points off singles and possible steals. Kyle Schwarber has boom or bust potential and has a solid .317 ISO over his last 14 days.
Nationals: Hendricks is a tricky guy. He doesn’t normally get blown up and never allows hard contact. I would much rather use Hendricks than a ton of Nationals hitters. Obviously, guys like Bryce Harper and Juan Soto are in play here tonight and both are riding hot streaks. Others that I would consider are Adam Eaton (4-10 with 2 HR off Hendricks) and Trea Turner. Turner is always a stolen base threat if he can get on base. Overall, I likely will have the least amount of hitters from this game and would rather use one of the pitchers.
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Cleveland Indians (-149) @ Toronto Blue Jays O/U: 9
Shane Bieber (R) vs Sam Gaviglio (R)
Pitching
Shane Bieber: Not fully interested in him after what the Blue Jays just did to Rays pitching last night, but he has shown bright spots this season. He does come into this game with a 24% strikeout rate and isn’t walking hitters at all (4%). After the onslaught the Jays put on last night, this will make Bieber much lower owned where he can put up big numbers. I worry that he will get hit hard as he has a 45% Hard% this season, but still only has a 3.49 SIERA and gets 43.4% groundballs. Toronto is very hot lately, as their projected lineup has an absurd .400 xwOBA and .291 ISO. Bieber will likely be one of the lower owned guys tonight though, but with TOR being this hot, it’s hard to use a lot of him.
Sam Gaviglio: Not really any interest in either pitcher today. Gav probably has the 2nd worst matchup on this slate tonight. He’s allowing a very high wOBA and has just a 20% strikeout rate this year. He’s had some good games, but they are not consistent at all and he’s more likely to allow 3+ runs then have a good game. He hasn’t had a start that he’s allowed less than 6 hits since July 14th. Honestly, I’m not a big fan of either of these guys tonight. GAME STACK ALERT!
Bats
Indians: Well, as you see above I said GAME STACK ALERT! Love both sides of this game and I will lean more towards the Indians, but both teams are firmly in play. I want a part of nearly all the bats and it wouldn’t surprise me to see 7 8 or 9 hitters go nuts tonight. With my CLE stacks, it will start with Michael Brantley. He’s been one of the hottest hitters lately for the Indians and isn’t striking out at all either. After that, I love Lindor, Melky Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, and Encarnacion. This doesn’t mean I don’t like J-Ram, but he’s very expensive and actually has been a bit cold lately. Greg Allen (if he starts) has been solid lately too. His xwOBA-wOBA difference is the biggest out of their projected lineup and a 9-1-2 stack wouldn’t be crazy here.
Blue Jays: I like the Indians more, but Toronto has been on fire of late. Bieber has been better against righties, so for Toronto, I will likely be targeting the lefties as Bieber has allowed over a .400 xwOBA against them. The Main guys are pretty obvious here, those two are Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales. Both are not too expensive and have been very good lately. Randal Grichuk has immense power and can pop off for homers at will, but it could be harder as Bieber is a great groundball pitcher. Aledmys Diaz and Richard Urena are two sneaky plays (if they both start) as both have over a .360 xwOBA in their L14. I likely will favor Urena because he’s cheaper (especially on FD), and he’s a lefty where Bieber struggles more.
Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-163) O/U: 8
Anibal Sanchez (R) vs Zack Greinke (R)
Pitching
Anibal Sanchez: Actually hasn’t been horrible lately. He’s allowed just a .305 xwOBA over the last 45 days and isn’t getting hit overly hard. The DBacks have been pretty bad lately too which could make Sanchez a bit sneaky tonight. Arizona has a 24.5% strikeout rate in the L14 vs RHP and also are hitting just .211 with a wOBA of .253 and wRC+ of only 48! They have been straight up bad. Right now, their projected lineup has just a .313 xwOBA with a .101 ISO and 22.93% strikeout rate. Anibal has a 24% strikeout rate this season and doesn’t give up too many home runs. Hitters are hitting just .209 against him and he has a 28% hard-hit rate. He gets a good amount of ground balls and has been pretty solid over his last few starts. Arizona doesn’t have the best success against him either, even though it’s only 77 at-bats. They are hitting just .208 with a .117 ISO and .257 wOBA. Sanchez is going to be lower owned and could have a good game tonight.
Zack Greinke: I do usually have an issue with using pitchers against the Braves because they don’t strikeout much and have guys with crazy power. They do have a 21.8% strikeout rate in their L14 and 80 wRC+. Their projected lineup looks pretty good and have a .360 xwOBA with just a 17% strikeout rate. Greinke has been pretty good though. He’s allowed a .282 xwOBA to hitters and hasn’t been allowing much hard contact. Zack comes into this game with a 25% strikeout rate and just 5% walk rate too. Grienke will likely be very chalky tonight, and while I wouldn’t fade him completely, I’m not in love with the matchup for him.
Bats
Diamondbacks: They have been pretty cold lately, but they still have some amazing hitters on this team. The main guy here is Paul Goldschmidt, he’s always ready to play and can help in multiple ways. He’s the hottest of the DBacks right now and is the main guy I would pay up for. Jon Jay (if he plays) is dirt cheap on fanduel and has stolen base upside tonight. David Peralta would be the other guy I look at. The dude has been on a tear over the past few months and gets the platoon split against Sanchez.
Braves: Don’t love picking on Greinke much, just like I don’t like picking on the Braves. This game I can see being low scoring tonight. Ronald Acuna Jr. has been on a tear of late. He has a .467 wOBA and .370 ISO over the last week and is hitting the ball very hard. Kurt Suzuki has some history against Zack and is 6-19 against him with just 2 strikeouts. He has a .416 xwOBA vs RHP in the last 2 weeks and will be low owned. I’m not on Freeman much as he’s been cold and doesn’t have a good history here. I wouldn’t mind a Markakis or Inciarte to get a few hits tonight either.
*Rankings are below after you look at our Sports Book and FantasyDraft free roll for NFL week 1!*
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MAIN SLATE RANKINGS Pitchers!
- Luis Castillo (will be chalky and is cheap)
- Kyle Hendricks (never a fan of him, but he’s been consistent for 30+)
- Zack Greinke (tough matchup, but elite pitcher)
- Stephen Strasburg
- Anibal Sanchez (deep GPP)
Offense Rankings!
- Indians
- Reds
- Blue Jays
- The rest are more one-offs or mini stacks for me tonight!
Good Luck Everyone!
