Welcome to the September 27th Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
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BULLPEN REPORTS
**will be added later or posted in our VIP Slack Chat!
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
**SEPTEMBER MLB NOTE: this time of year I think we need to lower our volume as MLB is crazy with September call ups and organizations trying to see what they have for next year. All of my plays will mainly be geared towards tournaments for the rest of the season**
Gerrit Cole (11.4k FD) (12.8k DK) @ BAL
Don’t over think this one, Cole is going to be massive chalk on this slate. With the best matchup on the board, I can see him being over 50% in some tournaments tonight. No one is even close to his upside on this slate. Right now, they are projected just 3.26 runs and their projected lineup has a .303 xwOBA with a 23.39% strikeout rate. They went off last night in game 2 of the double-header with Boston but they could still roll out a funky lineup tonight. Cole comes into his final start of the regular season with a 35.1% strikeout rate with a 2.88 SIERA and doesn’t get hit too hard. Don’t think too hard, Cole is the best option on this slate.
Julio Teheran (8k FD) (8.5k DK) @ NYM
Teheran has great history against the Mets and this matchup is very good for him. First off, the Mets come into this game with the 6th highest strikeout rate vs RHP at 25.3%. His last few starts against them have not been that great, where he failed to reach 30 fanduel points, but the history definitely favors Teheran. Over 209 at-bats, they are hitting just .196 against him with a 21% strikeout rate. That rate isn’t too high, but they have been struggling of late. Teheran has a decent strikeout rate at 22.4% but he’s been walking way too many hitters (4.35/9 innings). He’s a slight favorite in this game too and the Mets projected lineup doesn’t look great. They have a .311 xwOBA with Conforto and Bruce having the highest, but they do have a 23.73% strikeout rate. The options on this slate are slim and very risky after Cole, but Teheran sets up well here.
Jon Lester (9.3k FD) (9.8k DK) vs PIT
Definitely, don’t like paying this type of price for Lester, but on a small slate with not many options, he needs to be considered. The Cubbies are playing to win the NL Central and need to win almost all of their games to secure that spot. With a slim 0.5 game lead over the Brewers, one game can slip them out of the lead. That is some motivation for Lester and he had an amazing start last time out against the Pirates. In that start, he went 6 innings with 8 strikeouts and scored 52 fanduel points on the night. Lester has been back and forth this season with good and bad starts, but with the motivation of the NL Central Division champs, I think Lester comes out firing tonight.
Marco Gonzales (6.3k FD) (8.8k DK) vs TEX
What a price difference for Marco tonight. He’s way too cheap on fanduel tonight and we need to take advantage of that. Plus the matchup for Seattle hitters is a great one. Heaney did a good job on the Rangers last night and they get to see another tough lefty tonight too. The Rangers projected lineup looks awful. They have just a .307 xwOBA with 0.071 ISO and 24.61% strikeout rate. Those are all numbers I want to target with a pitcher. The one thing I’m not a huge fan is he has seen Texas a lot this season and has had mix results. Just 5 days ago he faced them on the road and went 6 innings with only 3 strikeouts. I don’t normally like using a pitcher against the same team he just faced but he’s very cheap, especially on fanduel. He also grades out as our 2nd highest pitcher on this slate. I do see upside with him tonight and expect him to get more than 3 strikeouts.
Others I’ll consider tonight:
Francisco Liriano @ MIN: The twins don’t look that great vs LHP right now and Liriano has actually had some great starts. He’s scored at least 30 fanduel points in his last 4 starts and this matchup is easier than some others that he’s had. He’s cheap and has some upside.
Bats I like Tonight
Houston vs David Hess: Houston looks really good lately. Obviously, Altuve is in play along with Bregman. I don’t mind using McCann, Reddick, or Gurriel tonight either. Stack them up!
Atlanta vs Jason Vargas: Target the RHH here, but don’t leave off Freeman or Markakis if you’re making a bunch of lineups. Acuna, Kurt Suzuki, and Culberson are 3 I also like in those stacks.
Indians vs Glenn Sparkman: This whole lineup is really in play tonight, they could be the highest scoring on the slate. Their starting lineup is clicking on all cylinders right now.
Cubs vs Trevor Williams: They need to win as many games as possible to end the season, I’m not sure I want to full stack them, but Rizzo, Baez, Murphy, and Bryant are three great players in this lineup. If you need savings I don’t mind Zobrist or Happ either.
Seattle vs Ariel Jurado: only a fan of a few here, they seem to stink when they are super chalky. I want the hot hitters here Cano, Zunino, Gordon, Haniger.
Salary Savers: Victor Martinez, JaCoby Jones, Johnny Field, Sal Perez, Alex Gordon, Elvis Andrus, Robinson Chirinos
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
1. Gerrit Cole
2. Julio Teheran
3. Jon Lester
4. Marco Gonzales
5. Francisco Liriano
Good Luck Everyone!
